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I took a look at Dobber's suggestion of measuring cold streaks as number of consecutive games with zero points, and compared the actual number of streaks to the number predicted if points were distributed randomly throughout the season.
I don't know how to grab this kind of information easily, so I looked at players Dobber suggested are streaky, either in the above post or on his list of Windex Wonders. For each player I analyzed the last four seasons of at least 40 games, and calculated the expected number of blank streaks of at least two games through at least eight games (the longest for any of these players). Here are some of the results: ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() I haven't run any tests on the data at this point, but there are some interesting points already. For example, Kessel has many more long streaks than predicted, but far fewer two game streaks. In line with Dobber's comments above, I wonder if this speaks in some way to Kessel's "natural" production rate, but that once he misses the score sheet for two or three games he tightens up and doesn't score again for a while. Contrast that with Huselius, who doesn't seem to go on long skids any more than chance would predict, but often sputters along pointless for two games.
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C: Tomáš Plecanec (10), Jonathan Huberdeau (11) LW: Patrik Eliáš (14), Pascal Dupuis (10) Иlлья Kovalchuk (1), Brandon Saad (10) RW: Jarome Iginla (3), Phil Kessel (2) Jakub Voráček (9) Util: D:Ryan Suter (7), Mike Green (4), Brent Burns (10), Mark Streit, Justin Schultz (12) G:Craig Anderson (6), Дeвaн Dubnyk (17) Cepгeй Bobrovsky (9), Niklas Bäckström (8) Last edited by Hey Robbie; 02-06-2013 at 02:28 PM. |
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