Do I keep Getzlaf or Rask - Page 2 - Fantasy Sports Forums

theslymonkey · #11 01-10-2013, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lucifer316

when you say 82 game schedule do you mean raask plays 82 games or do you mean 1 hockey season ie raask plays 55-65 games

Yes. I would expect Khudobin to get 15-18 starts. That would leave about 65 starts, 38-40 wins, and 4-6 shut outs for Rask.

Its not that he should put up huge numbers that worries me. It's how much better is he than Bryz, Price, Kipper, Fleury/Smith? And then how much better is Getzlaf compared to Iggy, Couture, Ryan?

lucifer316 · #12 01-10-2013, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

Yes. I would expect Khudobin to get 15-18 starts. That would leave about 65 starts, 38-40 wins, and 4-6 shut outs for Rask.

Its not that he should put up huge numbers that worries me. It's how much better is he than Bryz, Price, Kipper, Fleury/Smith? And then how much better is Getzlaf compared to Iggy, Couture, Ryan?

i dont see those numbers at all personally

9 goalies started 65+ games last season

and 4-6 shut outs is what thomas put up

same team or not i just dont see sliding a rookie in and giving him the last guys numbers

again personally i think you are way over on his numbers i could be wrong but that just looks way too high to me

also its more than just how much better he is compared to others (and maf and smith both put up better than 92 last season) you were going the right direction when trying to figure out what those ahead of you were going to do

you keep the one you cant get back and drop the one you can

kipper had 82 under your setup and bryz had 84

35 wins and 4 shutouts for 82 points thats a tall order for a rookie imo and you are predicting 10 more points

i just dont know

one goalie in the history of the nhl got 38 or more wins his rookie season bill durnan in 43-44

only 31 goalies with 4+ shutouts in the history of the league in their rookie seasons only 2 post lockout

again your expectations i think are high

theslymonkey · #13 01-10-2013, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lucifer316

i dont see those numbers at all personally

9 goalies started 65+ games last season

and 4-6 shut outs is what thomas put up

same team or not i just dont see sliding a rookie in and giving him the last guys numbers

again personally i think you are way over on his numbers i could be wrong but that just looks way too high to me

also its more than just how much better he is compared to others (and maf and smith both put up better than 92 last season) you were going the right direction when trying to figure out what those ahead of you were going to do

you keep the one you cant get back and drop the one you can

kipper had 82 under your setup and bryz had 84

35 wins and 4 shutouts for 82 points thats a tall order for a rookie imo and you are predicting 10 more points

i just dont know

one goalie in the history of the nhl got 38 or more wins his rookie season bill durnan in 43-44

only 31 goalies with 4+ shutouts in the history of the league in their rookie seasons only 2 post lockout

again your expectations i think are high

This was my initial thinking. And that's why I was sure that I would keep Getzlaf. I looked at the "experts" and this is their predictions:

TSN(prorated): 37W+7SO=95
ESPN: 31W+7SO=80
Yahoo: 37W+5SO=89
CBS: 39W+8SO=102

So other than ESPN, they are all predicting a monster year for Rask. I have zero chance of redrafting Getzlaf at #5. I have a chance of redrafting Rask but could fall back on Price or Bryz.

Pengwin7 · #14 01-10-2013, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

I'm projecting Getzlaf to score 74 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 120 forwards are picked.

I'm projecting Rask to score 92 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 20 goalies are picked. That would make him the next best goalie after Lundy, Quick, and Rinne.

In a 10-team league, keep Getzlaf.
10-teams counting 12F = 120F.
10-teams counting 2G = 20G.
Exactly... you understand the theory properly.

We all know Rask is a top 5 goalie, which puts him in the upper 25%.
We also know Getzlaf should be a top 30 forward, which puts him in the upper 25%.
And new goalies rise up into this upper echelon every year... Mike Smith! Jaroslav Halak! Jimmy Howard!
Four years ago, these guys were back-ups that nobody would've though would emerge.

But 20G in play also means that there are (10) #1 NHL goalies that aren't counting and will be available.
With 120F, that's the top 4 players on all 30 NHL teams... which means that all PP1 scorers are taken.
And top 30 scorers don't just pop-out of nowhere. These guys are all first round draft picks that we all see coming, they're hard to snag.

In MOST other types of leagues, especially "category leagues", the goalies (and especially RASK) will carry more weight.

Here points-are-points and you are looking at it correctly: "relative difference" from what you can get from the waiver wire.

Getzlaf is the correct keeper.

In a 10-team league, you will always be able to find a emerging goalie that is getting enough starts to supplement your totals. 12F/6D/2G. There's 20 players in play here and Rask is just one of 20 contributors... and his position is well-stocked in your pool.

Also - Getzlaf is a free agent this summer and if he switches teams he will become a very attractive player: Calgary? Toronto? NY Rangers? Several teams out there could use a top center.

lucifer316 · #15 01-10-2013, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

This was my initial thinking. And that's why I was sure that I would keep Getzlaf. I looked at the "experts" and this is their predictions:

TSN(prorated): 37W+7SO=95
ESPN: 31W+7SO=80
Yahoo: 37W+5SO=89
CBS: 39W+8SO=102

So other than ESPN, they are all predicting a monster year for Rask. I have zero chance of redrafting Getzlaf at #5. I have a chance of redrafting Rask but could fall back on Price or Bryz.

yeah i am a lot more confident in your getzlaf projections than your rask ones

i actually give getz a better chance to even exceed your predictions than i would give rask to match his

theslymonkey · #16 01-10-2013, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pengwin7

Also - Getzlaf is a free agent this summer and if he switches teams he will become a very attractive player: Calgary? Toronto? NY Rangers? Several teams out there could use a top center.

Now you're just tugging at my heart strings. That would be a dream come true.

Shoeless · #17 01-10-2013, 10:45 AM

I think your projections for Rask are pretty accurate - he is a shutout type goalie on a good D team so I would expect a minimum of 90 fantasy points out of him over a full season. That being said I would keep Getzlaf here - there are lots of goalies on the possible available list that will approach 85 points with 35 wins and 5 shutouts so it's about gap - Getzlaf just has too high an upside not to want to catch the ride if it happens. With such a limited keeper, you are always going to be able to draft good goal tending

theslymonkey · #18 01-10-2013, 03:38 PM

Thanks everyone for the advise. Getzlaf was my initial plan and now my opinion has be re-solidified with all your help. Now I have a week to submit my keepers, so I have time to wait for Kovalchuk to get his head out of his ass. If gets a case of the stupids, then I still have Rask to replace him with.

Thanks

theslymonkey · #19 01-15-2013, 06:49 PM

***NEW INFO***

I had the Luongo owner approach me about Rask. He is willing to offer me a 3rd round pick in exchange. My initial plan was to pick Rask back up with my first rounder. But I could move Rask for a 3rd and use my first to pick up Bryz.

Thoughts???

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Fantasy Ranking

Login Form