Disagree with this as well.

Everyone on this forum is way too high on Neal... the guy had one good year after meddling around in the ~50 point range for several seasons. I see very real downside risk to Neal's point production and if I could bet money, I'd bet the house that his point production goes down this year.

On the other hand, I'm VERY comfortable that Seguin will exceed his point total from last season and I think he may very well be this year's Giroux. Wouldn't shock me at all if he breaks 85+ points (or the equivalent pace since we don't have the full season). He has been absolutely WRECKING FACES overseas. 40 points (including 25 goals) in 29 games. The skating... the hands... the vision... the creativity, he is the total package.

http://nesn.com/2013/01/tyler-seguin...tribute-video/

nobody said neal is a far better choice than seguin.
though everyone agrees tavares is the easy number one choice,
the gap between neal and seguin this year should be extremely close.
you can argue all you want between the two,
but fact is they will be very close at the end of the year
provided they both stay healthy.
flip a coin.

my coin flip says seguin...

ooops, flipped again and this time it says neal.

I'm sure you could bet money on it.

If I was forced to bet, I'd say it goes down too... but I wouldn't go out and make that bet.

In 1991-1992, Kevin Stevens finished 2nd in the NHL in scoring.
James Neal is a better player than Kevin Stevens ever was... and Neal is in a similar situation.
These superstar playmakers (Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby, Malkin)... they come along once every 10-20 years and any sniper lucky enough to play alongside them is going to benefit greatly.

I hear you on Neal's actual talent level... but winging it in Pittsburgh is perfect for him.
As long as he's there, he's going to be putting up Kevin Stevens like production... and that's effin up there!
There's no reason for his production to slip greatly.

James Neal = Kevin Stevens.
Tyler Seguin = Steve Yzerman.

Stevens outscored Yzerman in 1991-1992.
Just sayin.

I think Neal deserves more respect, 24 goals as a rookie, 27 the following year, then was on pace for 29 in his third, that reflects a legit goal scorer.


And he is a Gary Roberts Disciple, you can't go wrong with any of those boys....

.....umm Nazem Kadri, thats your cue to step up!

Love the Kevin Stevens argument Pengwin, thats next level.

I don't usually do this but I need to mention my point again: perceived value.

You could argue all you want on who will have a better season but where do you think the other managers would draft them? I would bet that Neal would be drafted before Seguin, and likely a round or so before.

So, the question of where to draft is not always where you think they'll produce, rather where you feel you can maximise value from that pick. Having the 11th slot out of 14 is tough to get Seguin unless you reach a bit (IMO) at pick 18, but sometimes that's worth the risk. Or if you feel that other players will go ahead, plus goalies, Karlsson etc and Seguin can slip to the third, then that could work as well.

Will Seguin outpoint or come close to matching Neal? Possibly.
Will Seguin be drafted above Neal? Unlikely, unless you do it.

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All I've got...all I've got is insane!

I get what you're saying with the whole "perceived value" strategy... I'm a big proponent of it myself, but I don't think it applies here.

It applies when there's a player you really want, but there's a good chance you can pick him up in a later round... so you gamble and pick up someone else instead, hoping to scoop him up later for cheap. I think this kind of strategy works best with certain players who fly under the radar or guys who are considered damaged goods for one reason or another - I'm talking guys like Gaborik, Whitney, St. Louis, etc.

That's not going to happen to Seguin... at least not in competent pools with skilled GMs. The gap between Seguin and Neal in terms of perceived value is so close that I doubt many will have the opportunity to scoop both once the snake comes back around (unless some idiot reaches super early for Neal or it's a really small league).

I also think you're underestimating the "perceived value" of Seguin - most of the guys in my leagues (and from what I can tell, those in the know on this forum) are VERY high on him. Wouldn't shock me at all if he goes late first round or early second round in my cash pools.

He's definitely one of the few guys in my crosshairs this year and I'll consider reaching for him in round 2 depending on who I get with my round 1 pick.

Fair enough - every league is different. Sure, I can understand that many would be really high on him, but I don't think I'm underestimating him. Thinking he's a second round pick is pretty fair. But in a one-year league, I still wonder how many people would make that high a pick in a shortened season on a guy who hasn't broken 70 yet. And I know Giroux did, but not everyone is Giroux (but Seguin could be, sure). Food for thought.

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All I've got...all I've got is insane!

If Tavares is gone I would take a long look at Perry before grabbing Sequin or Neal

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Dobberhockey Entry League - Norris Division
C: Mike Richards (C,LW); Brad Marchand(C,LW); Danny Briere (C,RW); Patrik Elias (C,LW)
RW: Corey Perry (RW); Marian Gaborik (RW); Nail Yakupov (RW); Patric Hornqvist (RW)
LW: Taylor Hall (LW); Milan Lucic (LW); Johan Franzen (LW,RW) Andy Mcdonald (C,LW)
Def: Kulikov; Bogosian; Justin Shultz; Orlov; Salo; Hamilton
Goaltending: Ryan Miller; Devan Dubynk
Bench: Sam Gagner (C,RW); Steve Sullivan (LW); Matt Martin (LW) ; Roman Cervenka (C )

Perry's another guy I have in my crosshairs, but I think he will fall to late 2nd or 3rd round in most pool formats (other than multi-cat positional). I wouldn't use a 1st round pick on him.