Could I land a big four (Ovi)? - Page 2 - Fantasy Sports Forums

the_walrus · #11 12-07-2012, 09:31 AM

Just got Ovechkin last week.
It cost me Giroux. This was after offers of Lundqvist/B.Smith and Getzlaf/Doughty/Schneider (before Luongo asked for trade)/Smith/1st rounder

Honestly, the problem with acquiring one of the big 4 is that from an owner's standpoint, you have a play who you could literrally trade to acquire any other player in the league (save for maybe another big 4). So you have to ask yourself, is the player I'm getting back the guy I want to the most in the league. Somehow I doubt its Sedin. You'll likely need to impress him with your offer. What you're offering is fair value based on production, but based on name, is not close yet.

gfunkb7 · #12 12-07-2012, 10:11 AM

Whilst I don't disagree with your statement, I believe he gets a fair share of improvement

Giordano becomes a better keeper than Burns (increase in Shots, Hits, and Points)
Iginla becomes a way better keeper than an even more aging Cole (big increase in Shots, Hits, PPP and Points)
Sedin is indeed a small-mid downgrade to Ovechkin (less in PPP, Hits)
Ott just provide compensation in Hits for Ovechkin's loss

There's no denying Ovi is the best player in the deal. Perhaps 2 1st rounders seems heavy, but considering the way he manages his team (weak keepers), the 2 of the 3 players I'm offering are definite improvement.

gfunkb7 · #13 12-07-2012, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_walrus

You'll likely need to impress him with your offer. What you're offering is fair value based on production, but based on name, is not close yet.

Sedin is indeed the best name I've got so that's why I've got to sparkle on the side by replacing his junk with pure immediate improvement. Once again, his team shows he should rebuild and his actions inform me otherwise (keeping and drafting rather older guys - Ribs, Cole, Backstrom, Vokoun, Boyle, Visnovsky).

It shows me his strategy is not on point and I shall benefit from that.

newfcollins · #14 12-07-2012, 10:29 AM

You're making it seem better than it is.

Ovi to Sedin is more than a downgrade in PPP and hits (huge downgrade in hits: almost 200 in a season). It's also a downgrade in SHP and shots.

You believe it's a good deal and is something that can help his team, and you're trying to convince us of that. We don't need convinving. If you believe it's a good deal, make the offer. If he accepts, great. If not, then see what he counters with.

STONE. · #15 12-07-2012, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pengwin7

For one-year:
D.Sedin-side is much better.

As keepers go:
Ovechkin+(FillerKeeper) is possibly better than D.Sedin+Iginla.

Personally, I've soured on Ovechkin. I've posted my input on this guy too many times before. I think his 100pt days were a combination of his youthful energy (+5 to 10pts) and his chemistry with healthy teammates Semin & Green (+10 to 15pts). Those things are gone. Ovechkin is now a 80-85pt player... which puts him marginally above Daniel Sedin.

D.Sedin side for me.

Are people forgetting the picks?
If there's no season, this is a lottery pick! McKinnon or Jones is also in play here.
Unless this deal makes him immediately better, he's giving up a lottery pick the following year as well.

The deal without the picks is close. With the picks, I just don't see it.

the_walrus · #16 12-07-2012, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gfunkb7

Sedin is indeed the best name I've got so that's why I've got to sparkle on the side by replacing his junk with pure immediate improvement. Once again, his team shows he should rebuild and his actions inform me otherwise (keeping and drafting rather older guys - Ribs, Cole, Backstrom, Vokoun, Boyle, Visnovsky).

It shows me his strategy is not on point and I shall benefit from that.

See now, you're falling into a few traps here.
1) Justifying your offer:
If you have to justify the validity of your offer, it probably won't be accepted. Hell, you have 5-6 guys telling you it isn't a good enough deal and yet you're still trying to convince us how it makes sense. This isn't a judgement on you, but rather a judgement on whether or not we think you're offering enough.

2) Assuming what the other GM needs/should do:
Nobody wants to be told how they should run their team. In my experience, there's no better way to alienate a rival GM then telling them/trying to convince them that they need to rebuild. Expecially if, as you mention, his actions are showing you he has no interest in rebuilding. You need to meet the other GM on their level, not convince them of yours.

Keep in mind I offered Getzlaf/Doughty/Schneider/B. Smith which would help him greatly on D and in goal (he had Luongo), while hurting him a notch or two on forward, and the owner balked, because he knew he wanted another stud in return.

Honestly, I don't see you have the star power to acquire Ovechkin unless you coupled Sedin with Rinne, and thats too much to give up. Since you're already offering two of your best players in the deal, try telling him to pick any 5 skaters from your roster and chose 3 of them to offer straight up for Ovechkin. You'll be giving up alot of production value, but Ovechkin's trade value means that one year from now if he doesn't work out you could still probably move him for a package of equal or better value than the one you gave up for him.

Pengwin7 · #17 12-07-2012, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by STONE.

Are people forgetting the picks?
If there's no season, this is a lottery pick! McKinnon or Jones is also in play here.
Unless this deal makes him immediately better, he's giving up a lottery pick the following year as well.

The deal without the picks is close. With the picks, I just don't see it.

Well, since you quoted my post... I guess I should address this.

1) The lottery pick COULD be the #1 overall pick, since it came from the last place team. But a lot of leagues may follow the NHL's protocol and have their own lottery for all the picks. Even if it is Mackinnon... how long until the kid is fantasy relevant? One-year, two-years, three-years? In shallow-keeper pools - usually a team should be undergoing a massive rebuild to wait on a prospect.

2) His team is close to competing NOW, per OP.
I don't think it makes sense to get younger. If he's close to competing, I say go for it NOW. Why get younger when you have the 2nd best team in the league? Daniel Sedin is a monster in this format. There's no PIM, so aside from the discrepancy between AO and Sedin in hits, the other categories are very close (P, G, +/-, PPG, PPP, SHP, GWG, Shots, Hits). Iginla is also very good in this format. Lots of scoring categories.

If the OP wants to go into full re-build, yes... go Ovechkin + prospects.
But we've seen Ovechkin slowing down... by the time Mackinnon is fantasy-relevant (2015?) will Ovechkin have bounced back... or will he be even worse?
Point is - I don't think Ovechkin can be considered a player to be included onto a "rebuilding" team.

If the OP wants to compete, I say go with the D.Sedin side.
My response was from the vantage point of competing.

STONE. · #18 12-07-2012, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pengwin7

If the OP wants to compete, I say go with the D.Sedin side.
My response was from the vantage point of competing.

I get your point -- just mixed communication. You're encouraging him to stick with what he has -- which I can see. That's just not what he posed in the thread title: "Could I land a big four?" Had he asked, "Should I land a big four?" You'd be bang on.

I see your point now -- we were just looking from opposite sides. The thread poster might be better off with Sedin. That I'll concede. I also think the other owner would be better off with what he has -- and therefore won't/shouldn't take the deal. That's what I was saying.

gfunkb7 · #19 12-07-2012, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_walrus

1) Justifying your offer:
If you have to justify the validity of your offer, it probably won't be accepted. Hell, you have 5-6 guys telling you it isn't a good enough deal and yet you're still trying to convince us how it makes sense. This isn't a judgement on you, but rather a judgement on whether or not we think you're offering enough. Keep in mind I offered Getzlaf/Doughty/Schneider/B. Smith which would help him greatly on D and in goal, while hurting him a notch or two on forward and the owner balked, because he knew he wanted another stud in return.

2) Assuming what the other GM needs/should do:
Nobody wants to be told how they should run their team. In my experience, there's no better way to alienate a rival GM then telling them/trying to convince them that they need to rebuild. Expecially if, as you mention, his actions are showing you he has no interest in rebuilding. You need to meet the other GM on their level, not convince them of yours.

Honestly, I don't see you have the star power to acquire Ovechkin unless you coupled Sedin with Rinne, and thats too much to give up. Since you're already offering two of your best players in the deal, try telling him to pick any 5 skaters from your roster and chose 3 of them to offer straight up for Ovechkin. You'll be giving up alot of production value, but Ovechkin's trade value means that one year from now if he doesn't work out you could still probably move him for a package of equal or better value than the one you gave up for him.

I strongly disagree on a few things:
1) Justifying an offer doesn't mean the offer is a bad one in the first place. If you place higher value of a player only because of his name, my JOB, in order to the trade done, is to extract the plus-value on name and generate the real value. If the other GM accepts right off the bat, that means my offer would have been too low. It's the basics of negotiations - each party trying to close the gap. If the majority of you would say it's not even close, then yes, I shall recraft the trade. It seems like this trade has place to interpretation, though.

2) When you look at the facts, his team is not in good posture. Therefore, I put myself in the other GM's shoes and ask myself:"is it worth giving up Ovechkin, lose couple of 1st rounders but improving two other keepers (while also receiving D. Sedin) in exchange of not having to go under complete rebuild and have my chances of competing sooner than 3 years from now and perhaps making playoffs as soon as this year?"

3) You're making it seem like I'm pointing a gun to his head to accept the deal. I have yet to discuss this deal with him, even though I sent the offer. My perception of his team is that he should rebuild but opted to have a compete-now strategy. I've never insinuated that he should run his team whatever way. I'm simply pondering on what type of offer to send considering what his plans seems to be, for him.

Statistically speaking, I doubt Ovechkin is worth my top three (pick three out of five). You wanna place value on a name, like most people would do? Fine, but I'm crunching numbers and it's not worth it.

newfcollins · #20 12-07-2012, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gfunkb7

2) When you look at the facts, his team is not in good posture. Therefore, I put myself in the other GM's shoes and ask myself:"is it worth giving up Ovechkin, lose couple of 1st rounders but improving two other keepers (while also receiving D. Sedin) in exchange of not having to go under complete rebuild and have my chances of competing sooner than 3 years from now and perhaps making playoffs as soon as this year?"

The problem is, most people here are telling you it's not worth it for him to do so. Yet you're still trying to convince us it is.

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