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Old 10-25-2012, 12:34 PM
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Default Long term keeper goalie

i am in a first year keep 8 (1 goalie min)

currently have Fleury, Kipper and Markstrom.

I think they are solid but im looking long term with only keeping 1-2 goalies as keepers.

GS GAA SV% SHO W SV are the stat categories. so it is important to get volume in starts as well as quality.

should i just stand pat? or should i be looking to get an upgrade?

Lundqvist + Rinne are likely unattainable as are Rask + Schneider, their owners either want too much (tavares + fleury for j.staal + rinne) or they are not even entertaining the idea of moving their star tender.

Quick could maybe be had, I am looking into that.

here are some goalies that i think will be successful, but i am having a hard time assessing whether they will be better in a year or 2 then what i have.

Halak (shares starts tho, but fantastic quality)
Lehtonen (big fan, but has he shook the injury proneness yet?)
Varlamov (elite potential starting to look like he has solved consistency issues, however Col isnt that good yet.)
Holtby (too young? experience?)
Miller (just not sure he's any better then fleury or kipper now.)
Dubnyk (Edm is his team for now, how does he fare in full time starting role, also weak defence)
Lindback (Showing some real promise, will he fulfill?)
Price (montreal looks to still be 3 years away from contending at least)
Smith (can he duplicate with another team if ever traded?)

I do like Markstrom a lot too, but without much big game experience in the nhl compared to holtby, lindback on the list above.

so who would you like with those stats ?

personally i think my list would be out of the tendys i can actually acquire (i.e not rask, rinne, schneider, or lundqvist)

Fleury
Lehtonen
Miller
Halak
Kipper
Varlamov
Smith
Dubnyk
Lindback
Markstrom
Holtby
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  #2  
Old 10-25-2012, 12:49 PM
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Well if you can get Quick with a reasonanle price, DO IT!

As for the rest:

Price - no matter how shitty you think Montreal are or are not, Price will still put up elite numbers and be top-10 goalie year after year. Get him if you have a chance
Miller - he's still a stud and an upgrade over Kipper
Lehtonen - he's a stud and I'm comfortable living with his injury history. I'd easily take him over Kipper going forward.
Halak - very good but isn't a work horse like a lot others on the list

Those are upgrades over Kipper and over Markstrom too.

These are good but not sure they'll be worth going after:

Varlamov - he'll be a good one for the Avs
Smith
Holtby - not sure he's an upgrade over your Markstrom but will have his chance sooner
Lindback - needs to prove a lot more still to be an upgrade for you
Dubnyk - I don't see him upgrade over what you have
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  #3  
Old 10-25-2012, 12:59 PM
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I think "thinking young" with regard to goalies is a big, big mistake.

Goalies get better as they age (until a certain point where they level off & that level keeps for a considerable while). I don't see any significant movement in goalie performance from the age of 27-35. Sure, the oldest guys (Brodeur) are going to start showing it around 40 years old. Kipper, for example, just turned 36 years old and last year could be considered the 4th best year of his 11-12 year NHL career. In fact, a lot of good goalies get started NHL-late at around 23-24... even 25+ years old.

I mean... Pekka Rinne took the reigns in Nashville at the age of 26.
Rinne's about to turn 30 years old... is he getting too old?

And a 32-year old Ryan Miller still has 3-5 good years left in him... maybe more.
And a 28-year old MA Fleury still has 5-7 good years left in him... maybe more.
Also - as a North American goalie, there's no Nabokov-fear that they might just jump ship to the growing-KHL.


With your position: Fleury (28), Kipper (36), Markstrom (22)... I'd just hold tight.
I think Kipper's got at least 2 more solid years left in him and by then Markstrom will be a full-time #1 goalie.

No need to tweak your goalies right now, IMO. (though it is always wise to consider these things)
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Old 10-25-2012, 12:59 PM
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go for price or miller.
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Old 10-25-2012, 02:07 PM
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I like Pengwin's view on the situation.
"Long term" or "old" are terms that are used too often in fantasy sports and are very misleading.

I'm a firm believer that you should think in 3 year windows and not much longer for fantasy hockey planning purposes.

And Goalies are like fine wine. I see people devaluing guys like Kipper because they are in their 30's and I shake my head.

You have a nice mix of youth an proven starters. I would hold pat unless you feel you can a bonafide star (Price, Lundy, Quick, etc) for a fair price.
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Old 10-26-2012, 05:08 AM
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I'm not so sure about Markstrom as I used to be. I own him for 3 years now in my keeper and I'm still waiting for any results. Injuries aside, his NA performance has been wildly inconsistent so far and he even lost #1 job in San Antonio lately to Gruvet-Morris. It's hard to expect elite NHL play from goalie, who can't even be #1 on his AHL team, let alone dominate there. Markstrom is not that young inexperienced goalie anymore - he'll be 23 years old in January and he's got 2 years of NA hockey under his belt. He should be dominating by now, look at his countrymen Lehner or Lack. His lack of success is starting to scare me.

If I were you, I would consider moving Markstrom in some package for another proven goalie (I'm trying to do the same, as Lehtonen owner in my league is rebuilding) while he still has some price. It may not last long IMHO.
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Old 10-26-2012, 02:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyLuke View Post
I'm not so sure about Markstrom as I used to be. I own him for 3 years now in my keeper and I'm still waiting for any results. Injuries aside, his NA performance has been wildly inconsistent so far and he even lost #1 job in San Antonio lately to Gruvet-Morris. It's hard to expect elite NHL play from goalie, who can't even be #1 on his AHL team, let alone dominate there. Markstrom is not that young inexperienced goalie anymore - he'll be 23 years old in January and he's got 2 years of NA hockey under his belt. He should be dominating by now, look at his countrymen Lehner or Lack. His lack of success is starting to scare me.

If I were you, I would consider moving Markstrom in some package for another proven goalie (I'm trying to do the same, as Lehtonen owner in my league is rebuilding) while he still has some price. It may not last long IMHO.

Im not worried about markstrom so much, and last time i checked they split the games 2/2 in the ahl so far (note i checked days ago). Lack is 25 going on 26 by the way so theres a flaw in the comparison to him. Lehner was wildly inconsistent before bishop turned up so again goalies go thru some ups and downs when at this age. Most starters do not get their chance in the show until age 25-27 or so. That would actually mean lehner(21-22 i believe) and markstrom (23) are simply ahead of the curve and thats why they get highly touted. Florida hasnt bit on luongo, why? jacob markstrom is why. They interviewed Subban (goalie) and asked how he would respond in a system basically where he was behind a young superstar in the making. That was this off-season, imho nothing has changed regarding him. Although i did notice the lack lustre stats at the ahl level thus far, i checked the roster and i think the skaters are generally a weak group this year for them outside of a few brighter prospects on the team(maybe 4 or 5 between def and offence). That can impact his stats too, and when he has played nhl games he has a great stat line there, and thats where it counts right? My only concern was im competing and i dont wanna waste a keeper slot on him if he doesnt take over the starting role next season or this one(if we have one). It just simply would not be a good play, i would keep kipper and re-draft markstrom or lehner early whoever looks to be ready to step into the show soonest.
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  #8  
Old 10-28-2012, 08:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kwazzie View Post
Im not worried about markstrom so much, and last time i checked they split the games 2/2 in the ahl so far (note i checked days ago). Lack is 25 going on 26 by the way so theres a flaw in the comparison to him. Lehner was wildly inconsistent before bishop turned up so again goalies go thru some ups and downs when at this age. Most starters do not get their chance in the show until age 25-27 or so. That would actually mean lehner(21-22 i believe) and markstrom (23) are simply ahead of the curve and thats why they get highly touted. Florida hasnt bit on luongo, why? jacob markstrom is why. They interviewed Subban (goalie) and asked how he would respond in a system basically where he was behind a young superstar in the making. That was this off-season, imho nothing has changed regarding him. Although i did notice the lack lustre stats at the ahl level thus far, i checked the roster and i think the skaters are generally a weak group this year for them outside of a few brighter prospects on the team(maybe 4 or 5 between def and offence). That can impact his stats too, and when he has played nhl games he has a great stat line there, and thats where it counts right? My only concern was im competing and i dont wanna waste a keeper slot on him if he doesnt take over the starting role next season or this one(if we have one). It just simply would not be a good play, i would keep kipper and re-draft markstrom or lehner early whoever looks to be ready to step into the show soonest.
Well, Markstrom and Grumet-Morris are splitting starts right now and their stat line after 3 games for each of them is:

Markstrom - 4.03 GAA, 0.867 SV%
Grumet-Morris - 0.98 GAA, 0.971 SV%

Those guys are playing behind the same team. I know the season has just started but still, we're talking about arguably the best goalie prospect in the game. Lack is older, but he's been one of AHL top goalies since he came to NA. Same goes for Lehner, who is younger. Markstrom is average at best since he came over. I'd expect him to get better with time, not worse. It's lack of progression from his side what's really scaring me.

And just one note - Florida hasn't bit on Luongo not because of Markstrom but because of Bjugstad (Gillis'asking price).

I'm not calling Markstrom bust, but it's time for him to show us why he's so higly touted for years. Losing #1 AHL job to undrafted goalie who came out of nowhere is exactly the opposite. And that's why I would consider moving him if the right deal was on the table - his name still holds pretty high value.

Last edited by LuckyLuke; 10-28-2012 at 08:38 AM.
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Old 10-28-2012, 10:05 AM
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Markstrom and Lack both got lit up last night in a head-to-head matchup. 6-5 Chicago over San Antonio.
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