Hockey Is Ryan Getzlaf the next Scott Gomez - Page 2 - Fantasy Sports Forums

metaldude26 · #11 10-13-2012, 10:04 PM

Yeah, I'm with the crowd on this one. Excellent effort. Your research was extensive and it shows, I just feel like this one was a bit of a reach. Can Getzlaf be a mini (and by mini I of course mean a physically larger but proverbially smaller) version of the disappointment that is Scott Gomez.

The big thing for me is that physical factor. Getzlaf is way bigger and will be able to use his size/strength advantage to continue doing what he does best even late into his career. Now can injuries derail him? Absolutely, but thinking that Getzlaf is going to just fall off for the same reasons as Gomez seem to be a stretch.

But let's not sell this Getzlaf gets hurt a lot thing short. At a certain point playing such a rough and tumble game will catch up to you. So what if he's never had a reoccurring injury thus far. If he keeps getting different injuries it's probably because he puts himself in the line of fire more than most and maybe, just maybe his genetics predispose him to getting hurt more or responding less well to pain. Or maybe he's just had a tough run in what will be an otherwise injury-free career. I'm not ruling anything out with Getzlaf because he's shown us a little bit of everything.

NOW, if we really want to pick a Scott Gomez 2.0 then how about Mike Richards?

Maaaasquito · #12 10-13-2012, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by metaldude26

Yeah, I'm with the crowd on this one. Excellent effort. Your research was extensive and it shows, I just feel like this one was a bit of a reach. Can Getzlaf be a mini (and by mini I of course mean a physically larger but proverbially smaller) version of the disappointment that is Scott Gomez.

The big thing for me is that physical factor. Getzlaf is way bigger and will be able to use his size/strength advantage to continue doing what he does best even late into his career. Now can injuries derail him? Absolutely, but thinking that Getzlaf is going to just fall off for the same reasons as Gomez seem to be a stretch.

But let's not sell this Getzlaf gets hurt a lot thing short. At a certain point playing such a rough and tumble game will catch up to you. So what if he's never had a reoccurring injury thus far. If he keeps getting different injuries it's probably because he puts himself in the line of fire more than most and maybe, just maybe his genetics predispose him to getting hurt more or responding less well to pain. Or maybe he's just had a tough run in what will be an otherwise injury-free career. I'm not ruling anything out with Getzlaf because he's shown us a little bit of everything.

NOW, if we really want to pick a Scott Gomez 2.0 then how about Mike Richards?

I dunno I think his injury status is a bit of an exaggeration. He doesn't really get hurt "a lot" and when he did get hurt it wasn't "knick-knack" injuries... In the last 4 years he's really been only hurt twice... 09-10, he had a serious ankle sprain and caused him to miss 16 games and possibly the Olympics... Once again, I don't know if I'd classify that as a BAB injury, or a serious one. The second in 10-11, he decided to play frisbee with a puck like a dog and catch with his face instead of hands after taking a shot from Shane Doan. That shattered his orbital bone and caused sinus fractures. Once again I wouldn't classify that as a BAB injury, more of a freak accident than a BAB injury...

metaldude26 · #13 10-13-2012, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gotlaid

I dunno I think his injury status is a bit of an exaggeration. He doesn't really get hurt "a lot" and when he did get hurt it wasn't "knick-knack" injuries... In the last 4 years he's really been only hurt twice... 09-10, he had a serious ankle sprain and caused him to miss 16 games and possibly the Olympics... Once again, I don't know if I'd classify that as a BAB injury, or a serious one. The second in 10-11, he decided to play frisbee with a puck like a dog and catch with his face instead of hands after taking a shot from Shane Doan. That shattered his orbital bone and caused sinus fractures. Once again I wouldn't classify that as a BAB injury, more of a freak accident than a BAB injury...

Like I said, he's shown us a bit of everything. Would you be shocked if he missed 15+ games in each of the next four seasons? Would you be shocked if he missed none? I'm prepared for anything. Just know that his playing style puts him in the line of fire and IF he's going the way of Gomez its going to be because of injuries.

Pengwin7 · #14 10-16-2012, 10:40 AM

Nice work here, newf.
As a numbers guy, you've found some really intriguing numerical comparisons.

Gomez was a very good player for the first 7-8 years of his career, including his first year with the Rangers was even good. For years, the Rangers had overpaid for "star" players just because they had the money. Montreal has done it recently too. Clubs with money will overpay if they have that money.

And let's not forget, Gomez CHOSE those two locations.
Two hockey cities where, at the time, there was very little supporting cast.

Gomez' top year was 2005-2006 where EVERYTHING went right.
He scored 84points, playing a full 82games.
He shot 13.5% (He was a career 7% shooter at that point).
He scored 33 PPP. (He averaged about 18 PPP previously).

It's always key to adjust these figures.
If he shoots 7%, he scores 17G, which brings his point total down to 68pts.
If he scores only 18PPP, that would bring his point total down to 53pts.

So, the signs were there with Gomez... the signs have ALWAYS been there.
Scott Gomez was a 55-65pt player, capable of 70pts (which he's done 3 times) AND in the "everything goes right - and the universe aligns"... he hits 84pts.

With Gomez, the mistake that fantasy hockey poolies made was to miss two key facts:
1) Gomez is typically a 7% (or less) shooter
2) Gomez went from a club with good offensive depth (not quality, "depth": New Jersey) and signed on clubs with poor offensive quality AND depth (NYR & MON).

Let's move on to Getzlaf.
After touching 82pts & 91pts, he hasn't been back to 80pts.

His career high was his 91pts.
1) He shot 11%, he typically shoots about 12%. This is GOOD.
2) He scored 37 PPP. That's not a consistent number, too high. That is BAD.

Getzlaf had pegged previous PP numbers of 31 PPP & 36 PPP.
For that ANA PP, 25-30 PPP is pretty fair.

So adjusting #2 (91pts - [37-(25to30)]), we bring Getzlaf to 79-84pts.

i) His worst year was last year when he shot just 5.9%.
But Getzlaf has always been a 12% shooter.
It's an "off-year", similar to Gomez's "on-year".
If we correct Getzlaf to 12%, he would have scored 22G, bringing him to 68pts.

ii) The ANA PP was not good (injured Viz). Getlzaf only had 23 PPP, another career low.
If we adjust Getzlaf to a more reasonable 25-30 PPP, Getzlaf becomes a 70-75pt player.

In summary,
TWO things I look for when I evaluate a player's long-term potential:
i) Check his shooting % for his up-or-down year vs. his typical.
ii) Check his PPP output vs. previous years.

Gomez was a 7% shooter and 17-18 PPP player.
He had a really good year.
Two years later, he signed a big contract in a big market.
Fantasy hockey poolies invested in him too highly when he went "big market", expecting a return to the "magical" better stats in a "better place".
But he was bound for a downward statistical correction.

Getzlaf is a 12% shooter and 25-30 PPP player.
He had a really bad year.
Two years later, he could possibly sign a big contract in a big market.
Fantasy hockey poolies are only expecting him to return to his typical statistics.
He is bound for a positive statistical correction.

I don't think Gomez & Getzlaf are similar.
Getzlaf is a 70-80pt player (when factoring corrections).
Gomez was a 55-65pt player (when factoring corrections).

ericdaoust · #15 10-16-2012, 11:14 AM

I know there are some parallels between the two, but Getzlaf could probably be compared to dozens of other players in similar places in their careers. It depends on how much Getzlaf commits himself long-term.

Gomez is known for recent poor conditioning and lack of commitment, and over the years this is adding up along with losing confidence. It's not like he didn't have a chance. He kept his 2nd line spot without any questions until Desharnais outplayed every centermen on the team last season.

kevinsrangers · #16 10-17-2012, 07:45 AM

plenty of guys may have simmilar stats in their first 7 years but that doesnt mean things cant cahnge. thats when they go to a new team to get the big money. changing teams can have a positive or negative affect on a player. i dont see getzlaf being as bad a gomez ever.
nice write up by the way, great debates.

kbooks · #17 10-17-2012, 09:20 AM

If Getzlaf ends up in Toronto as a Free Agent the projection of another Gomez will probably occur. Anywhere else i think Getzlaf will be just fine.

Playing in Toronto can do that to a player.

ross10019 · #18 10-17-2012, 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pengwin7

Nice work here, newf.
As a numbers guy, you've found some really intriguing numerical comparisons.

Gomez was a very good player for the first 7-8 years of his career, including his first year with the Rangers was even good. For years, the Rangers had overpaid for "star" players just because they had the money. Montreal has done it recently too. Clubs with money will overpay if they have that money.

And let's not forget, Gomez CHOSE those two locations.
Two hockey cities where, at the time, there was very little supporting cast.

Gomez' top year was 2005-2006 where EVERYTHING went right.
He scored 84points, playing a full 82games.
He shot 13.5% (He was a career 7% shooter at that point).
He scored 33 PPP. (He averaged about 18 PPP previously).

It's always key to adjust these figures.
If he shoots 7%, he scores 17G, which brings his point total down to 68pts.
If he scores only 18PPP, that would bring his point total down to 53pts.

So, the signs were there with Gomez... the signs have ALWAYS been there.
Scott Gomez was a 55-65pt player, capable of 70pts (which he's done 3 times) AND in the "everything goes right - and the universe aligns"... he hits 84pts.

With Gomez, the mistake that fantasy hockey poolies made was to miss two key facts:
1) Gomez is typically a 7% (or less) shooter
2) Gomez went from a club with good offensive depth (not quality, "depth": New Jersey) and signed on clubs with poor offensive quality AND depth (NYR & MON).

Let's move on to Getzlaf.
After touching 82pts & 91pts, he hasn't been back to 80pts.

His career high was his 91pts.
1) He shot 11%, he typically shoots about 12%. This is GOOD.
2) He scored 37 PPP. That's not a consistent number, too high. That is BAD.

Getzlaf had pegged previous PP numbers of 31 PPP & 36 PPP.
For that ANA PP, 25-30 PPP is pretty fair.

So adjusting #2 (91pts - [37-(25to30)]), we bring Getzlaf to 79-84pts.

i) His worst year was last year when he shot just 5.9%.
But Getzlaf has always been a 12% shooter.
It's an "off-year", similar to Gomez's "on-year".
If we correct Getzlaf to 12%, he would have scored 22G, bringing him to 68pts.

ii) The ANA PP was not good (injured Viz). Getlzaf only had 23 PPP, another career low.
If we adjust Getzlaf to a more reasonable 25-30 PPP, Getzlaf becomes a 70-75pt player.

In summary,
TWO things I look for when I evaluate a player's long-term potential:
i) Check his shooting % for his up-or-down year vs. his typical.
ii) Check his PPP output vs. previous years.

Gomez was a 7% shooter and 17-18 PPP player.
He had a really good year.
Two years later, he signed a big contract in a big market.
Fantasy hockey poolies invested in him too highly when he went "big market", expecting a return to the "magical" better stats in a "better place".
But he was bound for a downward statistical correction.

Getzlaf is a 12% shooter and 25-30 PPP player.
He had a really bad year.
Two years later, he could possibly sign a big contract in a big market.
Fantasy hockey poolies are only expecting him to return to his typical statistics.
He is bound for a positive statistical correction.

I don't think Gomez & Getzlaf are similar.
Getzlaf is a 70-80pt player (when factoring corrections).
Gomez was a 55-65pt player (when factoring corrections).

Awesome job.

And I still think if he finds that old fire he can easily crack 90 pts again, when he dominates a game it's like the elite, 4 or 5 point nights are common. And if he ever stops to look for the perfect pass and instead uses that lethal shot of his, you'll see more like 225SOG instead of what he's been doing lately, translation, given his 12%, 27 goals. Then he only needs 63 assists to get to 90, a dominant Getzlaf with a strong Anaheim PP can hit 63 assists no problem.

But there will be doubters, for good reason, he hasn't had that fire and has been hit with the injury bug before last year (probably lingered into last year).

I'm looking for him to return to glory in 2012 (if we play).

The Comish · #19 10-19-2012, 10:44 PM

newf, loved reading what you wrote and appreciate how much research you put into it! It's refreshing to read a piece that was unexpected and against the grain. Kudos.

No one saw the demise of Gomez happening the way it did. For all the naysayers out there, no one can predict the future, so don't be so quick to defend Getz!

I don't think it will happen quite to the extent of what's happened to Gomez, but hey, you never know. At least if it does happen, newf can point to this article and say "I called it!".

blayze · #20 10-24-2012, 01:38 AM

The statistical similarities are interesting (and to a large extent coincidental in my view), but that's where the similarities end. There is nothing remotely similar about their on-ice game. Getzlaf has already shown he has world-class talent. I don't think anyone would have said that about Gomez, even during his peak.

Replace "Ryan Getzlaf" with "Rick Nash" and you've got a stronger case

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