Down to 3 in mine at work. One guy had Cincy last week!!

I was debating between taking Pittsburgh (@Ten) or Atlanta (vs Oak) and originally had Pittsburgh tonight. But I can't take a road team in survivor. Just can't do it. Plus with Atlanta having a bye next week, then playing Philly, Dallas and New Orleans.....this is the week to take them.

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12 team H2H Keeper
G,A,PP,PIM,SOG
W,GAA,SV%,SO
C:Giroux,Zberg,Marleau,Kadri
LW:Ovi,Neal,Pach,Benn
RW:Perry,MSL,Wheeler
D:Yandle,Subban,Edler,OEL
G: Lundqvist,Miller,MAF

12 Team H2H
R,2b,3b,HR,RBI,AVG,SB,BB,K,E
W,L,SV,HLD,K,ERA,WHIP
C:Buck
1B:Santana
2B:Kipnis
3B:Zimmer
SS:Tulo
LF:Marte
CF:McCutch
RF:Pence
Util:Ozuna
SP:Cain,Moore,Latos,Kennedy,Ryu,Guthrie
RP:Henderson,Rivera,League,Gregerson,Herrera
DL:Hart,Anderson,Bailey

YAYAYAAYAYAAAAAAAAAAA Survivor down to 2 people!!!

I'll bet this game cleared a lot of people out this week.

__________________

12 team H2H Keeper
G,A,PP,PIM,SOG
W,GAA,SV%,SO
C:Giroux,Zberg,Marleau,Kadri
LW:Ovi,Neal,Pach,Benn
RW:Perry,MSL,Wheeler
D:Yandle,Subban,Edler,OEL
G: Lundqvist,Miller,MAF

12 Team H2H
R,2b,3b,HR,RBI,AVG,SB,BB,K,E
W,L,SV,HLD,K,ERA,WHIP
C:Buck
1B:Santana
2B:Kipnis
3B:Zimmer
SS:Tulo
LF:Marte
CF:McCutch
RF:Pence
Util:Ozuna
SP:Cain,Moore,Latos,Kennedy,Ryu,Guthrie
RP:Henderson,Rivera,League,Gregerson,Herrera
DL:Hart,Anderson,Bailey

I'm torn.

Atl is definitely the safest pick. But I don't think it's the most profitable pick.

My pool has 10 remaining, maybe less after Pittsburgh lost, but I won't know who, if any, picked them until after the deadline passes tomorrow at 1.

I expect 4-6 people in my pool will be on Atlanta.

It's riskier, but ultimately more profitable to differentiate and go with one of Ari, TB, Mia imo. San Fran is an excellent option as well but I've already taken them.

Not taking Atlanta has a few benefits:

1) Gives you a chance to eliminate roughly half your pool.
2) Lets you save Atl for future weeks.

BUT they are easily the safest pick.

In general I am a risk taker and will steer away from the popular pick if there's other relatively safe options so I can increase my equity. Just not sure how I feel about the other teams right now.

My pick is currently on ATL. My mind is telling me to pick someone else, probably TB or Ari, but my heart and my babyness is telling me to stay on Atl.

I think if I wasn't eliminated in my other pool last week I'd probably pick TB in one and Ari in the other this week.

I'm trying to convince myself to change my pick, but can't do it yet. Will think about it some more and report back before 1est tomorrow.

switched it to Tampa for now. Egads!

Im so confused as to how your deadline is tomorrow at 1?

But anyways....I just think you have to take Atlanta the way theyre playing and based on the upcoming schedule. Do you really think your pool will last another 4 weeks after this? Because that's the next time theyre a safe pick with a bye, then Dallas, Philly and the Saints coming up.

__________________

12 team H2H Keeper
G,A,PP,PIM,SOG
W,GAA,SV%,SO
C:Giroux,Zberg,Marleau,Kadri
LW:Ovi,Neal,Pach,Benn
RW:Perry,MSL,Wheeler
D:Yandle,Subban,Edler,OEL
G: Lundqvist,Miller,MAF

12 Team H2H
R,2b,3b,HR,RBI,AVG,SB,BB,K,E
W,L,SV,HLD,K,ERA,WHIP
C:Buck
1B:Santana
2B:Kipnis
3B:Zimmer
SS:Tulo
LF:Marte
CF:McCutch
RF:Pence
Util:Ozuna
SP:Cain,Moore,Latos,Kennedy,Ryu,Guthrie
RP:Henderson,Rivera,League,Gregerson,Herrera
DL:Hart,Anderson,Bailey

why are you so confused about the deadline? it's a standard yahoo deadline.

if you want to pick a thursday game, that pick has to be locked in before kickoff, but the picks still aren't revealed until sunday at 1pm est.

my main reason for not taking ATL isn't to save them for their future value, it's because if they happen to lose I imagine half my pool will be knocked out, which doubles my equity in the pool.

If I take them along with half the pool, and they win, and we assume 1 of tb/mia/nyj/sf lose, and only 1 person in my pool was on that specific team that lost, my equity is only increased by 10% (10 are remaining in my pool)

keeping ATL for later is just an added value.

Imagine this scenario...

There are 100 people in your pool. The Packers are 95% to win. Everyone in your pool takes them. Every other team in the league is somehow favored to lose.

You'd still be better off taking a team favored to lose because you can win the pool right there. Say the team you take only wins 48% of the time. The Packers lose 5% of the time.

Your odds to win the pool in this scenario are 2.4% that week are 2.4% - as an added bonus if your team wins and the Packers do as well, there's still 100 people in your pool, but you're the only one with the Packers remaining that means in future weeks you'll have an option that they all don't.

If you take the Packers like everybody else, a 1 in 100 chance to win the pool makes you have a 1% chance to win the pool. You're more than doubling your chances to win by taking an underdog while everyone else in your pool takes 95% favorite.

That is an extreme example! No team is ever 95% to win, and never is every other team in the league going to be favored to lose. That means you'll be even better off than just 2.4x your odds to win by not taking the heavily picked favourite.

I may change mine from atlanta to tampa also still deciding

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12 team deep roto league
Categories : goals , shots , assists , pims , special points , plus minus , goalie minutes played , wins , gaa and svptg...... Start 13 forwards , 6 dmen and 2 goalies

Forwards - Crosby , Seguin , Eberle , Jamie benn , Taylor Hall , Wheeler , David Backes ,Silfverberg , Ennis , voracek , Andy McDonald , Berglund , Turris , Konopka

Defense -Pieterangelo , D. Keith , Giordano , Roman Josi , Kostka , Bouwmeester

Goalies- Rask , Fasth

Bench- Mueller , J Bernier , Vokoun , Barrie , Brendan Smith, Bickel

IR- Atkinson

with 536 ppl left in your pool there is even a stronger reason to fade the public popularity pick.

primarily because it's much more likely the overall pick % in your pool will be similar to the public picking %

in a smaller league there's more variants at play and you need to try to assess what your opponents will pick so you can figure out what the optimal pick is.

But all the other games aren't easy to win...Tampa hasnt played a good game yet to take them...cincy is a decent pick but browns could upset them today

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12 team deep roto league
Categories : goals , shots , assists , pims , special points , plus minus , goalie minutes played , wins , gaa and svptg...... Start 13 forwards , 6 dmen and 2 goalies

Forwards - Crosby , Seguin , Eberle , Jamie benn , Taylor Hall , Wheeler , David Backes ,Silfverberg , Ennis , voracek , Andy McDonald , Berglund , Turris , Konopka

Defense -Pieterangelo , D. Keith , Giordano , Roman Josi , Kostka , Bouwmeester

Goalies- Rask , Fasth

Bench- Mueller , J Bernier , Vokoun , Barrie , Brendan Smith, Bickel

IR- Atkinson

Man I wish ATL lost. Only 1 person in my 10 person league had them, but would've been great to see another favorite lose...so close.

Tampa crushed. Good on them.

League down to 6. 3 had Pitts, and 1 had SF.

Looking at NYG for next week. Them and Pats are likely going to be the biggest favorites and most of my pool has already used Giants.