I'm sure there will be lots written about this between this thread, the ramblings, the front page and the guide update but I wanted to be the first to get my opinion out there, if for no other reason than to generate some solid debate.

If you have a keen interest in this league as well as a lot of time on your hands then maybe you'll want to check out a run down of this draft from my personal point of view. It's pretty long so be ready for a commitment.

http://stevelaidlawsports.blogspot.c...h-experts.html

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Here's the breakdown according to FHG team breakdown stats...

Steve(Cage Match) should be fairly clear according the stats...
+/- is a bit of a worry for me since I'm 2nd last, but that's always a fickle stat and can easily change throughout the season.

It looks like G and SOG are my biggest areas for concern, so I'll have to look into addressing that once the season starts.

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Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12

late round gold? I think Brown went 3rd round before he got to me, and I grabbed Ott in round 8

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14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 2 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
F - Crosby, C.Smith, Wheeler, Parenteau, Hudler, Clowe, Grabovski, Atkinson, Frolik, S. Kostitsyn, Marchand, Peverley, Tavares, Read, Brouwer, Bickell, Gionta, Setoguchi
G - Anderson, Hiller, Markstrom, Brodeur
D - Letang, Del Zotto, I. White, Kronwall, Brodin, Nikitin

Thanks for the shout out Steve, at 10 I knew I had to grab a goalie, I was thinking double goalie with my first 2 picks to be honest. I was hoping to land Quick with how the default Yahoo! rankings were going, but everyone had the same idea of grabbing goalies early. Which left me with Rask. He should be fine, B's are a solid defensive team, and he faced very little competition beside Khudobin, so I was thinking he should be a high start, high win goalie with decent stats.

I reached a bit on Backstrom, but I knew he wouldn't have made it back to me in my 3rd round pick and I needed to swing for the fences for a high end offensive production. But you figured out my strategy of filling out the points categories first, then getting support later on. I wanted Smith, but Gates snagged him a couple of picks before mine, and I figured there wasn't much of a gap between the "mid ranged" goalies anyway, so I could wait till the 3rd round to secure my 2nd goalie.

With 8 of the next 18 picks being goalies, that almost screwed my plan, but I had to overreach to grab Hiller. Who fit the mold of high start, high win goalie with decent stats...

Getz, MSL and Green were once again swing for the fences picks... not a lot of peripherals but I was thinking the "name" factor as well. I'm generally pretty good at making offers and improving my team as the season progresses, so if I'm running into peripheral trouble, I can always move these pieces later on was the thought that was running through my head.

Your Hanzal pick was great, especially after I was cursing after missing out on Vinny, who I wanted to pair up with MSL. Then you stole Plekanec who I thought was under-rated as well... That had me spewing...

Not too fussed about Souray, since we have IR slots and a decent amount of bench slots, if Souray is hurt I can always add the flavour of the week in as a replacement. The fact of the matter is the Ducks have a pretty potent PP if things roll properly and with a good PP QB. Souray is the man there with Getz, Perry, Selanne and Fowler/Ryan, that unit should be great. Plus he brings a decent amount to the table, with SOG, points, along with a reasonable amount of HIT.

Robidas I was thinking along the same lines as you too, but what sold me was the departure of Souray. Souray really hurt Robidas stats last campaign cause he took up a lot of that 2nd unit PP time. Now that Souray is gone, Robidas gets that responsibility back. Also I needed help on the HIT front 269, 216, 191 (in 75) last 3 years, so that should really help boost that category for me.

I didn't really like my Tanguay pick, but LW were very slim, and he generally has pretty good chemistry with Iggy, so I went back to my early selections of points-heavy players... figured it was worth it. The one that I really wanted at the time was Marc Staal, but I was thinking he'll last till the turnaround, since the D selections have died down, but of course when you get complacent and you think they're safe, they're bound to be sniped...

The Khabibulin snipe really hurt... just cause I honestly had him all queued up and ready to go. I shoulda taken him at that Stoll spot, looking back at it retrospectively. The thing is between that spot and Garon (82 spots), there was only 1 goalie taken, so I was thinking it was safe to hold off... I was also thinking in my head with BTL having no goalies, that's a great target to stock up goalies and jsut fleece him during the season...

With Rask, Hiller, Theodore, I was planning on grabbing Mason and Khabibulin so I had enough protection to move a goalie, but as you can tell, you guys are smart cookies thinking along the same lines a me...

The Mason hit hurt me even more...

Either way great breakdown on your blog. Enjoyed reading it throughly!

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Dobber Expert Pool Champion 2011-12

Some of the teams are really in tough for goalies lol. Bound to happen in a league like this though.

Thanks for providing this breakdown Ma. You've got me feeling good about my chances!

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The Airborne Attack (GFHL - 14 Team Keeper League, Two-Time Defending Champion)
F: Stamkos, Backstrom, Perry, Kopitar, Kesler, Benn, Carter, M. Richards, Callahan, Berglund, Tlusty
D: Pietrangelo, Del Zotto, Giordano, Robidas, Boychuk
G: Luongo, Rinne
Farm: Coyle, Bjugstad, Conacher, Frattin, Shore, C. Smith, Stone, Colborne, Tatar, Zucker, Ellis, Murphy, Markstrom, Lack

Pengwin's Top 5 Picks for the League.

Surprisingly, the teams I identify as my favourites are nowhere near the top of the predicted FHG rankings. This doesn't align well with my normally numerical-based analysis, but I think Mitt Romney messed up my brain last night so I may be completely off this morning.

Without further ado, my top 5 predictions in reverse order:

#5. Mac's Militia
A very gritty team that should do well in all skater cats except maybe Assists. This team could fall anywhere between 1st-12th depending on Holtby/Reimer. If they can both be bonafide #1 goalies, this team has a shot at the title.
My fave VALUE picks: Perron (13), Emelin (20)
Least fave picks: McDonagh (11), Foligno (14)

#4. Amato
I really like the top 10 picks. He's got great potential value in Crawford in the 5th round and 4 excellent forwards in the top 6 picks.
My fave VALUE picks: Kulikov (13), McQuaid (23)
Least fave picks: Fisher (11), Leddy (17)

#3. Legion of Dobber
The 2nd straight year I've actually liked Dobber's team. I'm not fond of drafting defensemen high this year, but I do like that the next 9 picks were 6F/3G. I value-drafted both Anderson & Nabokov in rounds 7/8 of the RHRS this year. Smart drafting of hitting D men at the tail-end of the draft.
My fave VALUE picks: Vermette (16), Brewer (24)
Least fave picks: Granlund (14), Nikitin (20)

#2. Angus Unleashed
Love the top 8 on this team. 6F/2G. I don't mind drafting defensemen late in short-season drafts. There's a lot of randomness in defensemen in short-seasons, heck MAB was a top 5 D-man in scoring through December last year! The D he did draft all have some terrific upside to them. A healthy Kesler could put this team at #1.
My fave VALUE picks: Kesler (10), O.Jokinen (14), Quincey (18)
Least fave picks: Neuvirth (11), Setoguchi (15).

#1. GMG's Market Buzz
The roto king himself. I have faith. Mike Smith & Ondrej Pavelec could be the two work-horse goalies that win him Saves this year. I really expect a bounce-back from Heatley and a very high-octane MIN PP. There are some very solid hitting defensemen here. There's not a ton of hits until... BOOM... Matt Martin in the 17th round. Huge pick. I can not believe the NHL's hits leader slid that far in a 6-cat league.
My fave VALUE picks: Dubinsky (9), Zajac (12), Martin (17), Josi (19)
Least fave picks: Khudobin (16), Scrivens (22). [Only because in a shortened season I think you roll the dice that your Start 2G are your Start 2G and you forfeit contingency plans].

Those 5 picks made, there can never, ever be any doubting in the roto skills of Ma & LOTR, so I expect those teams to be right there.


Picks are based on two key criteria:
1. I expect a shortened season (if any) of about 48 games.
2. Weekly starts of 2G.

I was surprised at how tired I was during the draft. Kept having trouble staying awake, even though I had a good cup of coffee at around 8pm. Usually that gets me through anything, but not this time. The Saad pick was a brain fart where I thought someone else was on the clock and not me, and I ended up picking him before time ran out because he was on my screen. Had to do something.

Overall I'm happy though. The goalie hoarding was ridiculous so I thought it would be a good idea to solidify my other categories. I followed a similar strategy to the one I used in the UHL roster draft: fantasyhockeygeek + intuition. I do believe in these tools to get the most out of my picks but it's also key to be able to call audibles at the draft table and change draft strategies to seek an optimal roster.

It was definitely a competitive environment though, and I was happy to see a 25 round draft finish in just three hours. Amazing!

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Thanks for the breakdown. I wonder how skewed those stats are though given there were a select few people who were able to load up on backup goalies and seem to be killing it in the goalie counting categories.

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Talk about an intense draft!

It was a lot of fun and should be a great league. To me, the value wasn't there going for a goalie where I would've had to take one. It was either Varlamov or Holtby, which were good values where Steve and I got them. I wanted one of Lundy or Quick in the first round, but both got taken before my pick, so I held off on a goalie.

There was a ridiculous goalie run and the forwards and D that were being passed up shocked me to be honest.

I'm confident Holtby can be the rock in net, not too sure about Reimer but I think the lockout will help him as he gets over his concussion and what not.

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