Just wondering what your thoughts are on Sam Gagner for this season. Reason being is that I'd like to move Theodore (which is the risk here as if he still is the starter in Florida this year I'm not sure I better myself here) and possibly Gagner for Teddy Purcell and John Carlson.

Gagner holds C/RW eligibilty but loses value if I slot him in as a RW as he doesn't collect the .1 for FOW in that specific roster spot. Is there another route I could take in order to make this move. I considered trading a prospect D like Smith instead of Theo but the team I'm in talks with is really weak in net and is grasping at this point. What do you think? I'm not looking for a major rip off attempt or anything, but the gritty Purcell and Carlson deserve to be on my team this season.

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C: Crosby, Benn
LW: Parise,
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G: Theo.Rask, Markstrom


Farm:
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Wonder if you are trying to do too much in one deal - how about Theo straight up for Purcell?

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GS, W, L, SV, GAA, SV%, SO G, A, P, +/-, PIM, SOG, GWG, PPP, SHP, HITS, FOW

3C: H. Sedin,Stepan, Stastny, R. Johansen, Hanzal, Anisimov,
3LW: Burrows, Vanek, Ott, Lupul, Dubinsky
3RW: Doan, Pavelski, Brown, Okposo,
6D: Franson, Doughty, Voynov, Subban, Markov, Gonchar, Karlsson
1Util:
2G: Price, Emery


Farm: (< 100 games): S. Elliott, J. Bernier, Galchenyuk, Etem, Eakin, Atkinson

I'd say Gagner is pretty well equivalent to Purcell at this point, although you may want to consider Gagner slightly ahead if you like him to receive a bit of a boost while Purcell seems like a fairly solid candidate for some regression. On the whole though I wouldn't really give either one an advantage so you are basically looking at Theodore for Carlson, which I don't necessarily like. Given you don't have the roster space to make Carlson a keeper this is basically a one-year move and I'd rather have a third starter as an insurance policy than a defenseman who is quite frankly a long shot to top 40 points.

Carlson is, at this point, a shutdown defenseman, or at least that's how he's being used. The Caps have other D they can use in more offensive roles. They need Carlson to play the tough minutes because they don't have anyone else capable of doing the heavy lifting. Maybe they are selling his offense short but maybe they are simply maximizing their assets.

We all know Carlson has the ability to put up numbers but he's not being put in a position to do so. I'm passing on him in virtually all one-year formats because of that.

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Theodore is pretty much useless in keeper leagues. He may or may not be the starter this year, and it's probably his last year as a starter in the league.

And I would say Purcell over Gagner is an easy decision. I wouldn't say he is a 'fairly solid candidate for some regression'. What makes you say that? Playing shotgun to Stamkos will almost guarantee you of 60+ points, and he is actually a very good player. I think it's the fact that Purcell went undrafted that poolies don't quite understand how valuable he is. After this year, I would expect Purcell to be outpointing St. Louis.

In my mind, you are getting the best two players in this deal, and I wouldn't hesitate to pull that trigger.

i see you getting the two best players also. go for it.

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4C-4LW-4RW-6D-2G-5bench-unlimited farm.

C= crosby,m.koivu,malkin,zajak,grabovski,j.jokinen,
LW= ovechkin,nash,s.gagner,dubinsky
RW= downie,hemsky,callahan,voracek,perry,mueller
D= green,doughty,phaneuf,wisniewski,girardi,karlsson
G= rask,lundqvist,ward,price

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Why is Purcell a strong candidate for regression? Wellllllll... Riding shotgun to Stamkos is nice and all but there are more factors than simply that involved. The first thing I would point to is just pure random chance. Purcell set a career high in goals, assists, and points this season. Now certainly part of that was because Purcell was given the best opportunity of his young career. I mean, last season amounts to essentially his third season so it's entirely possible he's a 60-70 point talent.

But here's a question, how often do guys who are 60-70 point talents produce at that level year in year out? Point totals fluctuate every year. Sometimes guys get the bounces and sometimes they don't. Now maybe last season was in fact an unlucky year for Purcell but I find that hard to believe. So Purcell could put up a 55-point season, which no one would bat an eyelash at and yet he'd still have regressed. I'm not talking about Purcell being a terrible player but rather than his point total is subject to a certain amount of luck.

A huge element of luck is shooting percentage. Purcell shot 15.8% last season despite being a 9.9% shooter for his career. All it takes is some regression towards the mean in shooting percentage and Purcell's point total will drop.

You can also look at Purcell's PDO (1028) and On-Ice shooting percentage (11.87%) as other areas for regression. Simply put the Lightning scored at well above the league average (8.94%) on shots taken when Purcell was on the ice. Now part of that is the benefit of skating with a sniper like Stamkos but it's still an area where Purcell is more likely to regress than progress.

The entire Lightning team as a whole is in fact a team set for some regression. As a team they led the league in shooting percentage at 10.4% but were just 10th in 2010-11 and 14th in 2009-10. As far as I can tell team shooting percentage is a stat that is simply not very consistent from year to year and that can mean Purcell will not only regress in terms of how successful his shots on goal are but he may also regress in assists as his teammates see the success of their own shots on goal regress.

Then there's the whole motivation factor. Clearly Purcell is a motivated dude. As you mentioned, he went undrafted but he has worked his butt off to not only get into the league but then to excel at the highest level. Here's the thing though, Purcell has financial and contract security for the first time in his career after signing an extension this off-season. He now has four years worth of contract at over $15 million due. Now maybe he maintains the fire but maybe he takes a little time to celebrate maybe he doesn't work quite as hard and maybe that slip is enough to drop him from 60-70 points to 50-60 points. I mean, the line is pretty thin isn't it. I mean, the difference between winning or losing a battle can come down to an extra week of work in the off-season or the accumulation of an hour or two in the gym each week or an extra cheat meal each week because we are talking about being a half-step quicker at the absolute highest level.

These are all just theories though, which is why Purcell is merely a candidate. I'm not saying he definitely regresses. He's a good player but even the best regress and there's a lot working against Purcell.

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What can I write after that. I was going to pretty much pick him tomorrow in my draft metaldude, till you talked me out of it. LOL thanks for a great post
I still like he Purcell side here.
Good luck

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16 team league, Weekly changes
32 Players play 20, 2 Goalies, 6 Def, 12 Fwd
2*G,1*a,+/-,.2* pim
4*W,-2*L,1*OTL,5*SO
17 Keepers *
Goal, Ward, Bryzgaloz, Bachman
Def, Leddy, Zidlicky, Green, Russell, Justin Shultz,
Kaberle, Wideman, Wisniewski, Shattenkirk
Fwd Iginla, Bouchard, Carter, Gerbe,
J.Staal, Toews, Wheeler, Stoll, Cammalleri,
Granlund, JJokinen, Pavelski, Voracek, Bozak, Little
Havlat, D.Sedin, Kulemin, Grabner, Purcell