Colorado Avalanche - Page 18 - Fantasy Sports Forums

STONE. · #**171** 08-15-2012, 09:48 AM

I like the line combos above (as a Stastny owner).
Looking at an un-owned O'Reilly in our league, what's a realistic expectation for him going forward. Can he be a 50 point guy on a third line? Chance to be more?

I look at guys like Pavelski, Sharp and Kesler that were pegged as 3rd liners and 2-way guys early and they have done a lot more. I'm thinking J. Staal joins them this year. But O'Reilly would need a top 6 spot and Duchene and Stastny seem to have the middle all locked up.

In our points-only dynasty, a 50 point O'Reilly is worth owning. A 40 point third liner isn't.

TwoPuckCanuck · #**172** 08-15-2012, 09:59 AM

A 50-point O'Reilly is only around when Matt Duchene is out or not performing to his fullest. To take an excerpt from Dobber's Guide on the Duchene-O'Reilly relation:

"When Duchene was out of the lineup, O’Reilly tallied 19 points in 23 games (0.83). When he was in the lineup, O’Reilly managed 36 in 58 (0.62). A healthy Duchene hurts O’Reilly. Do not overrate O’Reilly."

Hate to give out something from the guide just like, but also dont want to claim the stats as my own. Bit of a catch 22.

Taking his pace when Duchene is out of the line, we see he's a 50 point player (when playing 82 games). However, we need to consider that Duchene was having an off year, so O'Reilly was given more opportunites even with Duchene in the line up. Duchene should bounce back this year, and in my opinion Stastny (to a lesser extent), both of which will take away even more opportunity from O'Reilly. This leads me to believe his point total will drop by 7-10 points, making him a 40 point player.

Either way, O'Reilly drops down the depth charts with a healthy Duchene. The top-6 in Colorado will look something more along the lines of:

Landeskog - Duchene - Parenteau
Jones (or McGinn) - Stastny - Hedjuk

That's the way I see it playing out, whether it be those lines specifically or not, that is likely your top-6 with O'Reilly as the odd man out.

He'll benefit from some 2nd unit PP time, but keep in mind that the Avs were the team with the least PP opportunities in the league last season. I think these things have a tendency to repeat themselves, especially when a roster is just slightly changed. The Avs aren't a tenacious team, so likely won't draw a large number of penalties.

slufoot · #**173** 08-15-2012, 11:14 AM

The difference is Sacco doesn't roll a traditional top-6. He basically rolls out 3 2nd lines and whichever unit is clicking on any given night gets the lion's share of icetime. For that reason, I'd say O'Reilly is a perennial 50 point threat. He scored less when Duchene was in the lineup, but the other side of the coin is that the team was winning those games, and losing more often than not when Duchene was playing more and scoring.

This is a big year for Duchene, he has a lot to prove. If he steps up to carry the offensive load, big things are in store for the Avs. If he doesn't I don't think it'll be long before either Sacco is fired or Duchene is shipped out.

bondon · #**174** 08-23-2012, 04:36 PM

Just read this report on O'Reilly's contract situation

Quote:

“Factor” is an restricted free agent who is coming off his three-year, entry-level contract, and a breakout 2011-12 season in which he led the Avs in scoring and was tops in the NHL with 104 takeaways. Word is he wants a five-year deal and the Avs are only offering three. He figures to make between $3 million and $4.5 million annually.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/avs/2012...tuation/11359/

I find it odd that two years is stalling the contract talks. I would want a guy like O'Reilly locked up long-term personally. Then again, I'm not a business guy lol.

rufio.85 · #**175** 08-23-2012, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bondon

I find it odd that two years is stalling the contract talks. I would want a guy like O'Reilly locked up long-term personally. Then again, I'm not a business guy lol.

I agree with you, this guy is a great 2-way player. I don't follow closely the Avs, maybe some of the knowledgeable people of this thread could comment... but I feel like Stastny is kind of stalling the progression of Duchene and O'Reilly. In the case of Duchene, results were terrible last year. Sacco didn't give him any loose leash to go and do his wizardry, relying more on a proven Statsny and a reliable ROR. In the case of O'Reilly, he had a great season but I feel he could develop even more offensively, think Tomas Plekanec for example.

Carcillo · #**176** 08-24-2012, 02:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bondon

I find it odd that two years is stalling the contract talks. I would want a guy like O'Reilly locked up long-term personally. Then again, I'm not a business guy lol.

5 years would take him to UFA while 3 years would have him as RFA after the contract. 5 years would also buy one UFA year so I'm sure that drives up the cap hit too by a one million or so.