League and team details in my signature

So I need some opinions on who my final keeper should be. Here is my analysis:

I'm projecting Getzlaf to score 74 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 120 forwards are picked.

I'm projecting Rask to score 92 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 20 goalies are picked. That would make him the next best goalie after Lundy, Quick, and Rinne.

I have estimated who will be left in the draft after everyone picks their keepers, and I am sure that Getzlaf would be the best player available. I pick 5th and would not get him back. He should go first overall. Other availables are Iggy, Heatley, Ryan, Couture, J.Staal, Yakupov, E.Kane...

After some casual conversations with other GM's I know that the guys picking 1-4 will be keeping a goalie. So they would probably not be picking a goalie with their first selection. I also know that the availables should be Bryz, Smith/Fleury(GM is dropping one), Kipper, Brodeur, Price, Lehtonen...


So here are my questions:

1. Who would you keep if you were me?
2. Is Rask a question mark? Or is he the next big thing?
3. Am I a fool to think that he will fall back to me at #5.
4. Which result is better? Keep Getzlaf and draft one of the goalies, or Keep Rask and draft one of the forwards?

__________________

10 Team NHL Keeper League (Keep 6)
Points only (F/D 1pt/G 1pt/A, Goalie 2pt/W 3pt/SO)
Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalie
(82 game cap at each position)
Bench: 3 Any Position
No IR

F- Giroux, Backstrom, Tavares, Kovalchuk, Getzlaf, Benn, Iginla, M.Koivu, Hartnell, Carter, Cammalleri, Callahan

D- Byfuglien, Green, Boyle, Goligoski, Visnovsky, Wizniewski

G- Rask, Elliott

BN- Brodeur, Saad, Beauchemin

Picks - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17

***2012-2013 League Champion***
***2011-2012 Runner Up***
***2010-2011 League Champion***

You have 3 sick centers and 1 sick goalie. Keep Rask. He may endup being just as good or better than the other goalies available. Lord knows he's on a loaded team. Besides, if you let him go, there's no guarantee that you'll get another chance to have two sick goalies.

__________________
League: Yahoo 20 Team Dynasty, H2H (4C, 8W, 6D, 1G)
Cats: +/-, FOW, A, G, GWG, PPP, SHP, SOG, S, SPct, W, GAA

C: Benn,Kopitar,J.Staal,Strome
W: Atkinson,Bennett,BrunnerConacher
Huberdeau,Kessel,Seguin,Selanne
D: Beaulieu,DeKeyser,Despres,D.Hamilton,Leopold,Salo
G: J.Howard
Bench: Braun,B.Flynn,B.Gordon - J.Bernier,O.Pavelec,V.Stalberg
Prospects: Andrighetto,V.Arvidsson,Filatov,G.Carey,K.Flanagan,Kabanov,Lehtera,Omark,Ritchie,
R.Schwartz,Shalunov,Stransky,
Clendening,Deslauriers,Gauthier-Leduc,J.Morrow,R.Murphy,Petrovic,Reilly, -- M.Hackett

1. Getzlaf - With the situation you presented, it makes more sense to keep Getzlaf. He will be the best player available if you let him go. If you let Rask go, you say the first 4 owners in line are likely to not pick goalies, giving you the chance to draft Rask back to your squad or draft Price.

2. I don't think Rask is much of a question mark, it's his time in Boston, and I very much doubt anything gets in his way this time around. He should be one of the best keeper goalies for years to come.

3. I don't think it's foolish to think he could drop back to you at 5th overall. You say there are 4 guys ahead of you who kept goalies and are likely to want to add elsewhere, on top of that there is another great goalie option out there in Price, I like your chances at landing one of them; then I do getting Getzlaf back if he were to be your drop.

4. The better result is keeping Getzlaf, in my opinion. With the scnario you presented it doesn't seem like there will be as good of forwards available, as there will be goalies. I still think very highly of Getzlaf even after last years big disappointment. With the 5 pick you have a good shot at getting Rask back, or getting Price who is every bit as good if not better, and failing to get them Fleury is a possible option, and if that to fails, Kipper makes for an excellent one year stop gap.

id keep rask.

__________________
10 team Keeper Roto League
4C-4LW-4RW-6D-2G-5bench-unlimited farm.

C= crosby,m.koivu,malkin,zajak,grabovski,j.jokinen,
LW= ovechkin,nash,s.gagner,dubinsky
RW= downie,hemsky,callahan,voracek,perry,mueller
D= green,doughty,phaneuf,wisniewski,girardi,karlsson
G= rask,lundqvist,ward,price

FARM=kreider,grachev,petrov,enroth,kuznetsov,ennis ,rundblad,bjugstad,radulov,montoya, adam,t.erixon,cowan,s.elliot,j.faulk,cormier,petro v,orlov,stone,eakin,grigorenko,silfverberg,brodin, atkinson

--G,A,P,PPP,SHP,GWG,PIMS,+/-,SOG,hits,FOW,blocks-Wins,GAA,SV%,saves,SO

I'd keep Rask here. I understand your logic in wanting to keep Getz but I think you are putting yourself at a much bigger risk not keeping a goalie at all since you start 2.

__________________
Follow me on twitter: @bruins42

Without me, it's only "aweso".

14 Team 22-man H2H Keeper League (Keep 15 - 4th Year)

G,A,+/-,PIM,PPP,SHP,GWG,SOG,Hits, W,GAA,SA,SV%,SHO

Dress:
3C,3LW,3RW,1F,5D,2G,5BN,3IR

C - Malkin (RW), Backstrom, E Staal, Stoll
LW - Zetterberg (C), Datsyuk (C), Whitney, Latendresse, Ruutu (C)
RW - Backes (C), Clowe (LW), Perry, Skinner(RW), Frolik (C)
D - Chara, Letang, Shattenkirk, Carle, Girardi, Giordano
G - Rask, Schneider, Fleury

Definitely keep a goalie.

And everything as it is right now, I'd keep Price before Rask.

__________________
Stamkos was asked today in Tampa how he can top last season:
"Well, get into the playoffs. That's the big key and that's our goal here."

Follow me on Twitter @thehockeyhitman

1. Rask would be my keeper here. Because your scoring system only counts wins and SO for goalies there is no question that he is the better option over guys like Price, Bryzgalov and Smith.

2. For me Rask is just about as solid as it can get. Who else does Boston have to turn to? Even if his peripheries are terrible he will get the starts and wins, because Boston is stacked.

3. If I were one of the top 4 team and I saw that Rask was available I'd take him, even if I was already keeping a goalie. Because you start two goalies, having two #1 tenders could be absolutely huge. I would question anyone that takes a potential 74 point Getzlaf over a potential 92 point Rask. He could fall to you, but I'd be surprised.

4. Given the choice between Getzlaf + Price/Fleury/Bryzgalov and Rask + Couture/Iginla/Ryan I'd go with Rask. To my mind, the available forwards have a better chance of equaling what Getzlaf will probably provide, whereas the available goalies will be hard pressed to equal what Rask will probably provide.

__________________
16 team, full keeper
19 roster players, 15 prospects
Stats: G, A, PPG, SHG, special teams assists, SOG, FOW, PIM, hits, blocked shots, +/-, W, SO, saves, s%, GAA, shootout saves

C: Crosby, Backstrom, H. Sedin, Boyle, Brassard
W: Voracek, Burrows, McDonald, Filppula, Dorsett, Hudler, Abdelkader, Bouchard, Ott, Zuccarello, Stalberg
D: Karlsson, Letang, Enstrom, Boyle, Giordano, Gorges, M. Stuart
G: Quick, Kiprusoff, Ellis

Prospects: Granlund, Pirri, Caron, Killorn, T. Johnson, Galiev, Corrado, Vatanen, Moore, Rundblad, Bachman, C. Johnson, Desjardins

In a 10-team league, keep Getzlaf.
10-teams counting 12F = 120F.
10-teams counting 2G = 20G.
Exactly... you understand the theory properly.


We all know Rask is a top 5 goalie, which puts him in the upper 25%.
We also know Getzlaf should be a top 30 forward, which puts him in the upper 25%.
And new goalies rise up into this upper echelon every year... Mike Smith! Jaroslav Halak! Jimmy Howard!
Four years ago, these guys were back-ups that nobody would've though would emerge.

But 20G in play also means that there are (10) #1 NHL goalies that aren't counting and will be available.
With 120F, that's the top 4 players on all 30 NHL teams... which means that all PP1 scorers are taken.
And top 30 scorers don't just pop-out of nowhere. These guys are all first round draft picks that we all see coming, they're hard to snag.


In MOST other types of leagues, especially "category leagues", the goalies (and especially RASK) will carry more weight.

Here points-are-points and you are looking at it correctly: "relative difference" from what you can get from the waiver wire.

Getzlaf is the correct keeper.

In a 10-team league, you will always be able to find a emerging goalie that is getting enough starts to supplement your totals. 12F/6D/2G. There's 20 players in play here and Rask is just one of 20 contributors... and his position is well-stocked in your pool.

Also - Getzlaf is a free agent this summer and if he switches teams he will become a very attractive player: Calgary? Toronto? NY Rangers? Several teams out there could use a top center.

Now you're just tugging at my heart strings. That would be a dream come true.

__________________

10 Team NHL Keeper League (Keep 6)
Points only (F/D 1pt/G 1pt/A, Goalie 2pt/W 3pt/SO)
Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalie
(82 game cap at each position)
Bench: 3 Any Position
No IR

F- Giroux, Backstrom, Tavares, Kovalchuk, Getzlaf, Benn, Iginla, M.Koivu, Hartnell, Carter, Cammalleri, Callahan

D- Byfuglien, Green, Boyle, Goligoski, Visnovsky, Wizniewski

G- Rask, Elliott

BN- Brodeur, Saad, Beauchemin

Picks - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17

***2012-2013 League Champion***
***2011-2012 Runner Up***
***2010-2011 League Champion***

I think your projections for Rask are pretty accurate - he is a shutout type goalie on a good D team so I would expect a minimum of 90 fantasy points out of him over a full season. That being said I would keep Getzlaf here - there are lots of goalies on the possible available list that will approach 85 points with 35 wins and 5 shutouts so it's about gap - Getzlaf just has too high an upside not to want to catch the ride if it happens. With such a limited keeper, you are always going to be able to draft good goal tending

__________________
Yahoo weekly starts 12 team league, keep 17 plus farm

GS, W, L, SV, GAA, SV%, SO G, A, P, +/-, PIM, SOG, GWG, PPP, SHP, HITS, FOW

3C: H. Sedin,Stepan, Stastny, R. Johansen, Hanzal, Anisimov,
3LW: Burrows, Vanek, Ott, Lupul, Dubinsky
3RW: Doan, Pavelski, Brown, Okposo,
6D: Franson, Doughty, Voynov, Subban, Markov, Gonchar, Karlsson
1Util:
2G: Price, Emery


Farm: (< 100 games): S. Elliott, J. Bernier, Galchenyuk, Etem, Eakin, Atkinson