There's a few threads on here about survivor pools. One in lineup discussion asking which team to pick (wrong forum) and the one here about how all the pools are 'ruined' due to Pats losing.

I want to start this thread so we can discuss picks for the upcoming weeks.

Looking at Week 3 I see a couple options.

Chicago vs StL - 9 point favorites
Dallas vs TB - 7 point favorites
NO vs KC - 9 point favorites
Pit @ OAK - 4.5 point favorites

In terms of Yahoo picks as of now, 27% picked new orleans, 21% picked San Fran. SF is a 7 pt favorite @ Minnesota.

11% are on Chi and Pit.
Only 2.69% on Dallas.

As it stands now I'm leaning towards Pit as my favourite pick. I think they are consistently decent, and Oakland just sucks so bad. There's also not that many good times in the future to use Pittsburgh.

A lot of people have strong principles about never picking a road team, or never picking a divisional game. I am not one of those people.

So that is the pick I like the most...at the moment.

I don't trust the bears and st. louis put up points this week against wash so i'm hesitant to take that. Also chi has some good future value.

I also don't trust dallas. They got stomped by seattle, and tb gave nyg a run for their money this week. Not going there.

I think Saints vs KC has to be my 2nd favorite. The saints look out of form, but I think they are too good to lose to KC. The saints eliminated me last year though in my 2nd chance pool, so i am a little wary to take them.

Lastly that San Fran @ Minny game wasn't even on my radar. They will probably win, but I'm not as comfortable with it as Pit @ Oak, and SF has way too much future value to use them now.

So as it stands in my 2 pools I'm looking at taking Pit and NO.

This is what you shouldn't do in a survivor pool.. You can't rely on saving the good teams for the future if you aren't there in the end..

But you really can't go wrong with Pittsburgh or NWO this week.. I wouldn't touch the STL/CHI or DAL/TB games.......

__________________
Zorro says "vote for Dobber"
Angus is my best friend at dobberhockey..
Bruins believer since BIRTH..
Fav player: Cam Neely..

i disagree. i think when making your pick you have to weigh a number of options, and probably give weight to them in the following order:

1) likelihood they will win this week
2) % of other teams in your league that will pick that team
3) future value

1) for 1 you can simply use the vegas moneyline, and perhaps some of your own intuition, but i don't know much about football so i just stick to looking at the odds.

2) yahoo (or espn, etc) tells you the % of people picking each team per week. it's fair to assume that your league will likely be similar to those numbers. as it gets deeper into the season you can cross-reference those %'s with the people in your pool to see if they even have those teams remaining. early a survivor pool it's safe to assume your league will be fairly similar to the yahoo default numbers.

3) future value is worth a lot and can be the deciding factor. i was going to write something on this, but i'm lazy right now so won't. maybe i will later.

my main point is that simply picking the team that is most likely to win each week is not the best way to win survivor pools.

i wrote about it more in this thread:
http://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?t=138214

When I read this (other thread), it opened me up to a whole new way of looking at my weekly picks in survivor pools. Not to kiss too much a$$ but this strategy is brilliant.

For this week my picks are as follows:

Dallas
NO
Bears
Colts


*i'm a steelers fan and have a tough time picking them in pools like these*

don't overvalue it though. sometimes when there's no other reasonable options you just have to go with the popular pick.

I've lost my confidence in Pittsburgh.

In two leagues.

In one with 30 ppl remaining, 12 have already taken Chicago, which means it's unlikely for them to be taken by many teams in that league. Given that, and their odds of winning I am taking Chicago in that pool.

My other pool has 25 remaining. Only 6 have previously taken Chicago. I'd also prefer some diversity and not to pick the same team in both pools, especially when there's other respectable options, so I'm picking Dallas. Dallas and NO both have roughly the same odds of winning yet NO is a 6x more popular pick in Yahoo. I don't get that. Assuming my league picks similarly to the public, Dallas is a far superior pick than NO.

These picks are subject to change as they are due until 1pm EST on Sunday, but barring significant changes in the vegas odds it is likely what I'll go with.

YAYAYAAYAYAAAAAAAAAAA Survivor down to 2 people!!!

I'll bet this game cleared a lot of people out this week.

__________________

12 team H2H Keeper
G,A,PP,PIM,SOG
W,GAA,SV%,SO
C:Giroux,Zberg,Marleau,Kadri
LW:Ovi,Neal,Pach,Benn
RW:Perry,MSL,Wheeler
D:Yandle,Subban,Edler,OEL
G: Lundqvist,Miller,MAF

12 Team H2H
R,2b,3b,HR,RBI,AVG,SB,BB,K,E
W,L,SV,HLD,K,ERA,WHIP
C:Buck
1B:Santana
2B:Kipnis
3B:Zimmer
SS:Tulo
LF:Marte
CF:McCutch
RF:Pence
Util:Ozuna
SP:Cain,Moore,Latos,Kennedy,Ryu,Guthrie
RP:Henderson,Rivera,League,Gregerson,Herrera
DL:Hart,Anderson,Bailey

I'm torn.

Atl is definitely the safest pick. But I don't think it's the most profitable pick.

My pool has 10 remaining, maybe less after Pittsburgh lost, but I won't know who, if any, picked them until after the deadline passes tomorrow at 1.

I expect 4-6 people in my pool will be on Atlanta.

It's riskier, but ultimately more profitable to differentiate and go with one of Ari, TB, Mia imo. San Fran is an excellent option as well but I've already taken them.

Not taking Atlanta has a few benefits:

1) Gives you a chance to eliminate roughly half your pool.
2) Lets you save Atl for future weeks.

BUT they are easily the safest pick.

In general I am a risk taker and will steer away from the popular pick if there's other relatively safe options so I can increase my equity. Just not sure how I feel about the other teams right now.

My pick is currently on ATL. My mind is telling me to pick someone else, probably TB or Ari, but my heart and my babyness is telling me to stay on Atl.

I think if I wasn't eliminated in my other pool last week I'd probably pick TB in one and Ari in the other this week.

I'm trying to convince myself to change my pick, but can't do it yet. Will think about it some more and report back before 1est tomorrow.

switched it to Tampa for now. Egads!