Originally Posted by Pengwin7
I'm not a fan of this trade for you.
He was old back in 2010... check his month-to-month game log of IP vs. K.
His lowest K/9 months were April & May!!!
He was actually better K/9-wise, later
in the season.
Jim Johnson seems to be clicking on all cylinders... and I honestly think he is the real deal this year. Full confidence. I don't focus on BABIP too much for RPs. I think they typically can have crazy-low (seeming "out-of-whack") BABIP because they can be so focused
for a short time (1 IP).
If you look at a full list (incl. non-qualified RPs), you'll see that most of the lower BABIP are relief pitchers. It's just different, a pitchers "focused" stuff is just harder to hit. Contact may be made, but not good contact. The lower BABIP correlates to the lower WHIP and lower ERA for RPs... IMO.
I'd decline this trade.
I like Gallardo, but I don't see him being a significant upgrade on Pettitte and obviously Jim Johnson is a very good trade chip for you.
Originally Posted by dmvincent
Yes, decline the trade IMO.
Pengwin, interesting numbers you picked out for Pettitte. I wasn't aware of that thanks. However, he's never had a K rate as high so if I were a betting man I would expect that to drop as the season progresses. By how much, I don't know. I also decided to have a look at his ERA on a month by month basis in 2010 out of curiosity and noticed this:
April: 2.12; May: 2.87; June: 3.18; July: 3.86; and then he got hurt. Still great overall numbers, but he did fade as the season progressed. Who's to say it won't happen again?
Also interesting. Not to say that he can't remain solid for the rest of the year, I'm just not sure he can keep up this pace. Though, he started later this season so my 'age' theory may not hold water, and obviously Dickey is proving most people wrong.
As for Gallardo, this is the worst he's been so hope for optimism, but a quick check on BABIP is steady. A bigger concern is that his HR rate is high, so not sure how much he will improve. So, now I'm having second thoughts, but still feel he will improve.
As for Johnson, good points about the low BABIP for relievers. Though, the lowest BABIP by a closer last season was .232 and the season before was .199. So perhaps he won't drop off as much as first thought, but with a .145 a drop is likely (or maybe he'll be an outlier).
As for being a trading chip, I agree, which is why I am considering this deal. But maybe I am overvaluing Gallardo and undervaluing Pettitte. But given the depth, it is very difficult to acquire a top pitcher. Even though the depth also helps those with closer strength (only so many to go around), I am in a pretty good position so far.
Maybe I counter with Capps?
If I were to decline the deal, I don't see any other option with this manager. I had originally offered Buehrle and Lohse, and he doesn't want either. Fair enough. Plus, with Paulino coming back, I need to drop someone, and neither of them I feel are droppable, as they are still good for matchups. I'd like to keep Cahill. Gallardo is also his best pitcher.
Food for thought. Decisions decisions...