Point prediction for Kessel?
Last three years
Team GP Goals Points
Bos 70 36 60
Tor 70 30 55
Tor 82 32 64
Seems like he is a 30+ goal scorer who will get 25+ assists. He also seems to miss about 8 games a year on average. If nothing changes, and neither he nor the team gets better, I would expect low 60's in total points. He will get his goals (a sniper who takes a ton of shots), but history shows that he is no setup man.
If you believe, like I do, that the Leafs are getting better, then I would put him at the high 60's (that is what I would predict) since he will likely get more assists from teammates. If the Leafs field a talented playoff team sometime before the 2020's, then I could see him going to the mid-70's.
Using Dobber's definition for "upside", I would peg him at 45G 35A. The stars would really have to align for that to happen (see Cheechoo, J.).