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Old 08-14-2010, 06:06 PM
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mabus mabus is offline
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Dobber Sports Initiate
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Here are some of the things I do - some of this won't work if you are new or don't like stats.

I created a database of NHL stats to get a sense of how players progress. NHL.com has great data going back a few years, but I recommend starting at hockeyreference.com. They have league stats since 1971 including player age and TOI stats in a format that is easily downloadable.

Second, I project what I think each player will do and compare to the magazines and Dobber. This helps to identify players I can wait a bit for on draft day as they might be undervalued on draft day plus I use it to tweak my rankings.

Make sure to adjust any rankings based on the specifics of your league. Hockeypookgeek can help you with this if you aren't a stats geek like me. Understanding how your league settings affect player values is the number one key to getting a leg up on at least half of your competitors.

Understand that skill changes slowly, but luck, opportunity and linemates can change very quickly and they can drastically change production - and therefore value.

After draft day, I read Dobber/Angus's ramblings. They watch a lot of games and distill a lot of information into something that takes 5-10 minutes to read. Use this info to decide if your players are increasing or decreasing in value. Act quickly if something is out of line - pick someone up on waivers or make a trade offer.

I also like to focus on leading indicators. An increase in SOG is a very positive sign for a player. Seeing players get more total icetime and/or powerplay time is also a good indicator of future production. I'm more willing to take a shot on someone with the hot hand if his icetime or linemates indicate that the change isn't just a lucky streak.

Know that short-term stats can deviate from the mean, but if the skill and opportunity are still there, the production will follow. I get most of my top guys from the waiver wire when someone else gets frustrated with a lack of production. I'm also willing to trade my hot players if the price is right.

Understand the hype cycle. A player's value is usually the highest the day he returns from an injury. Don't be one of the buyers - be a seller. Rookies also have more value before their first game than they do 6 months into the season 9 times out of 10.

Don't be stubborn. Most of us are right as often as we are wrong, so admit when you are wrong and move on.

Mabus
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9 Team Points Only Keeper (Protect 10). Roster of 9F, 4D, 1Util, 2G, 6 Bench
F - Malkin, Kane, Gaborik, Kopitar, Perry, Hossa, Zetterberg, M. Koivu, Hemsky, Cammalleri, Filppula, Ennis, Fleischmann,
D - Phaneuf, Goligoski, Byfuglien, Robidas, Shattenkirk, Hedman
G - Miller, Halak, Pavelec
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