To rebuild or not?
I'm a fantasy hockey nut and haven't been in a fantasy baseball league in a number of years. I figured I'd roll over here from Dobberhockey, as I've received some great advice there for the last few years! I had the opportunity to take over a "rebuild" team in a well-established, deep, NL-only league. After analyzing the team, I'm thinking I don't necessarily have to go into rebuild mode, and could actually be competitive this season. But, I'd appreciate some outside advice on which direction to take!
Here are the league specs/rules: NL-only, 11 team, 5x5 roto, 6 keepers, can only keep players for two-year contracts. 2 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS, 1 MI, 1 CI, 5 OF, 1 U, 9 P, 6 reserve. The first 23 starters on each team are a combination of players kept and those drafted through an auction, so the first 253 players are either keepers or are auctioned at a $260 cap. Then, there are 6 rounds for the reserve draft. There is also a 3-round farm draft. This is a very deep league!
The guy that owed this team before me made a run for the money last year and came up just short. There were a lot of players on the team in the second year of their contracts that cannot be kept for this season. This team also lost a bunch of players to the AL in the offseason, making for very few keeper options:
Ryan Braun @ $37
Josh Rutledge @ $5
Jovani Gallardo @ $24
The guys that got me into the league are attempting to convince me that I need to trade Braun and some draft picks in order to get up to 6 keepers. But, I'm thinking I could still make a run at some money this season with this plan:
I'll keep Rutledge at $5 as he's clearly a good value. I'll keep Braun at $37, as most projections I've run say he is worth between $40 and $45 and still a good value at that price. Gallardo, on the other hand, is overpriced at $24, so I'll let him go. That means I'll only have two keepers when most others are keeping 6. The upside of this is I'll only have used $42 of my cap space, which will probably be less than every other team and will give me a leg-up at the auction.
Another reason I like this plan is that I have the first picks in the both the reserve draft and the farm draft. I'm thinking I could probably trade the first reserve pick for a decent, cheap keeper. There also seems to be a lot of good, undrafted talent in the farm prospect pool, and I could use that first farm pick on a guy with the best shot to be called up this year.
So, do I trade Braun and picks to get to six keepers, or do I roll with Braun this season and enter the draft with less than six? To rebuild or not to rebuild. Thanks for any advice!
10 team, weekly H2H, pts league. Keep 5 players.
3 C, 3 RW, 3 LW, 6 D, 2 G, 8 bench, 2 IR
G +3 pts, A +2, plus/minus +/-1
penalty min +.2, PPG +1, PPA +.5
SH goal +1, SH assist +.5
GWG +1, shot on goal +.1
face-offs won/lost +/-.1
Goalie: win +5, goal against -1, save +.2
C: Stamkos, Thornton, Mike Richards, Tim Connolly, Steen (LW)
LW: Marleau, James Neal, Pacioretty, Fleischmann, Hudler (RW)
RW: St. Louis, Gaborik, Setoguchi, Michael Ryder, Brouwer
D: Letang, Edler, Carlson, Ryan Whitney, Zidlicky, Souray, Phaneuf
G: Bryzgalov, Mike Smith, Brodeur, Hedburg