Originally Posted by horrorfan
Always? Yeah I disagree - both strategies can work but I prefer to trust the guys that I drafted/acquired for this sole reason - to play them. Sometimes matchups work, sometimes they don't. As much analysis one can do doesn't always pan out. Like I said above, I'd rather be burned with my starter in the lineup than on my bench. It's a matter of preference and no set rule.
As for using the logic of playing 82 games against Pitt vs Clb - well that doesn't apply because I trust my stud more against ANY opponent on a given night. We know it doesn't always work, but it's the best strategy for me, and works well enough. There's no way I'd like to see Lundqvist post a shutout on my bench. No way.
Nobody likes to see a shutout on their bench... and yeah, it's gonna happen.
And yeah... people will kick themselves for seeing Lundqvist post that shutout on their bench.
But people should kick themselves ANY time they leave a shutout on their bench. (if it could have been foreseen)
HERE - you just can't deny the numbers.
Let's take it to an extreme.
Lundqvist & a team of 10-year olds vs. Team Russia
Elliott & Team Canada vs. team of 11-year olds
It's not just about the goalie.
Another (fairer) mathematical model is to consider shots-on-goal.
STL allows about 19 shots per game.
CBJ takes about 27 shots per game.
CBJ will, thus, probably get 23 shots on net.
I'd call Elliott a .910 SV% goalie.
Thus, he'll allow 2.07 goals against.
*We also have to consider how many STL will score... likely 3 or more. So it's a likely win for STL.
NYR allows about 30 shots per game.
PIT takes about 29 shots per game.
PIT will, thus probably get 29 shots on net.
I'd call Lundqvist a .920 SV% goalie.
Thus, he'll allow 2.32 goals against.
*We also have to consider how many NYR will score... could be 2, could be 3. It's a 50/50 game, I'd bet.
So... the STATISTICS suggest:
i) Elliott more likely to give up less goals
ii) STL more likely to win
And if you need one more source:
gives Elliott a "goalie score" prediction of 80.
They give Lundqvist a "goalie score" prediction of 60.
You can have your own "gut feeling" on this... but all of the numbers are on my side. Start Elliott.