i don't think medlen will give you 200 innings.
i do think his ratio will be elite.
as an under-sized RH pitcher, i think he will always be an injury risk.
i think that risk is mitigated by his repertoire; four pitches which rely and accuracy and movement. his plus plus change. no slider.
he has one of MLB's best bullpens working behind him, which helps explain the elevated strand rate, and give confidence in predicting plus wins.
he is a risk, but less risky in some ways than weaver or bummer.
i am really concerned about bummer's elbow. the september loss of velocity and control, coupled with the high % of sliders he throws, i see a red flag. hopefully nothing.
over the last few seasons, weaver has shown a marked decline in his peripherals. 2012 K/9 a career low. three year upswing in siera, peaking at 4.02. babip, .241 in 2012, suggests his <3 era was somewhat lucky. critical #; he's lost 2 mph off all his FB's. every spring, he explains that the elbow soreness he experiences, is 'normal'.
taken all together, i think this is a good time to stand pat.
dobber pro 2012-2013; campbell conference
c; b richards, ribiero, desharnias, zajac
lw; sedin, e kane, pacioretty, kunitz
rw; kessel, callaghan, cole, paranteau
d; chara, seabrook, souray, leddy, markov, s elliott
g; rinne, elliott
bench; garon, giguerre, hodgson, orpik, d roy
ir; nobody, yet