Shattenkirk was an exception (to date). Meszaros appeared to be an exception, a few years ago.
Actually a list of exceptions (productive)
What is productive?
- Shattenkirk, Karlsson, Doughty, Edler, Pietrangelo, Letang, Goligoski, OEL, Yandle...
roller coaster exceptions - highs & lows
MDZ, Myers, EJ, Subban...
Normal - some have had interesting stretches indicating next level is forthcoming
Barrie, Elliott, Voynov, Hedman, Rundblad, Bogo, McBain, Carlson, Orlov, Schenn, de Haan, Despres, Russell, Brendan Smith, Kulikov, Murphy, Ellis, Fowler, JJ, Leddy, Josi, Larsson, Erixon, Nikitin...
This list is incomplete.
If I've been fortunate, at best, after identifying an elite prospect, your odds of success are likely 25% to 35%. To combat this, I've tended to draft these guys when they've made the first steps of success. I don't remember the last D-man I drafted as an 18 year old. The leagues I play in don't have 'prospects' and limit rosters at 30-35. By drafting after they have proven they are going to be in the NHL, my success has been much better. Yandle, Goli, McBain, Voynov, Edler, Shattenkirk (immediately traded), Elliott (immediately traded)... I'd rather spend and buy something when it is proven, than draft endlessly hoping that the guy will break through.
Most of the good ones are first rounders. All of the good ones entered into a situation in which the organization wanted to lean on them. I think only the Phoenix boys displaced, or somewhat displaced, a veteran that might have continued for some more time (OEL, Yandle)... none started on a 100 point team (maybe because 100 point teams don't have the highest draft picks)... you could consider the break throughs to have been on teams that were rebuilding (MDZ would be an exception - maybe others)....
Best One Moment Wonders
Darryl Sittler (10 point game)
Tom Bladon (8 point game - blueliner)
Sam Gagner (8 point game)
Al Hill (5 points in 1st NHL game)
Brian Boucher (5 consecutive SO)
Ian Turnbull (5 goal game)
Stastny Brothers (16 point game)