Originally Posted by theslymonkey
I'm projecting Getzlaf to score 74 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 120 forwards are picked.
I'm projecting Rask to score 92 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 20 goalies are picked. That would make him the next best goalie after Lundy, Quick, and Rinne.
In a 10-team league, keep Getzlaf.
10-teams counting 12F = 120F.
10-teams counting 2G = 20G.
Exactly... you understand the theory properly.
We all know Rask is a top 5 goalie, which puts him in the upper 25%.
We also know Getzlaf should be a top 30 forward, which puts him in the upper 25%.
And new goalies rise up into this upper echelon every year... Mike Smith! Jaroslav Halak! Jimmy Howard!
Four years ago, these guys were back-ups that nobody would've though would emerge.
But 20G in play also means that there are (10) #1 NHL goalies that aren't counting and will be available.
With 120F, that's the top 4 players on all 30 NHL teams... which means that all PP1 scorers are taken.
And top 30 scorers don't just pop-out of nowhere. These guys are all first round draft picks that we all see coming, they're hard to snag.
In MOST other types of leagues, especially "category leagues", the goalies (and especially RASK) will carry more weight.
Here points-are-points and you are looking at it correctly: "relative difference" from what you can get from the waiver wire.
Getzlaf is the correct keeper.
In a 10-team league, you will always be able to find a emerging goalie that is getting enough starts to supplement your totals. 12F/6D/2G. There's 20 players in play here and Rask is just one of 20 contributors... and his position is well-stocked in your pool.
Also - Getzlaf is a free agent this summer and if he switches teams he will become a very attractive player: Calgary? Toronto? NY Rangers? Several teams out there could use a top center.