League and team details in my signature

So I need some opinions on who my final keeper should be. Here is my analysis:

I'm projecting Getzlaf to score 74 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 120 forwards are picked.

I'm projecting Rask to score 92 points (for 82 games), which would make him a +24 over what would be available in the free agent pool after all 20 goalies are picked. That would make him the next best goalie after Lundy, Quick, and Rinne.

I have estimated who will be left in the draft after everyone picks their keepers, and I am sure that Getzlaf would be the best player available. I pick 5th and would not get him back. He should go first overall. Other availables are Iggy, Heatley, Ryan, Couture, J.Staal, Yakupov, E.Kane...

After some casual conversations with other GM's I know that the guys picking 1-4 will be keeping a goalie. So they would probably not be picking a goalie with their first selection. I also know that the availables should be Bryz, Smith/Fleury(GM is dropping one), Kipper, Brodeur, Price, Lehtonen...


So here are my questions:

1. Who would you keep if you were me?
2. Is Rask a question mark? Or is he the next big thing?
3. Am I a fool to think that he will fall back to me at #5.
4. Which result is better? Keep Getzlaf and draft one of the goalies, or Keep Rask and draft one of the forwards?

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10 Team NHL Keeper League (Keep 6)
Points only (F/D 1pt/G 1pt/A, Goalie 2pt/W 3pt/SO)
Starters: 12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalie
(82 game cap at each position)
Bench: 3 Any Position
No IR

F- Giroux, Backstrom, Tavares, Kovalchuk, Getzlaf, Benn, Iginla, M.Koivu, Hartnell, Carter, Cammalleri, Callahan

D- Byfuglien, Green, Boyle, Goligoski, Visnovsky, Wizniewski

G- Rask, Elliott

BN- Brodeur, Saad, Beauchemin

Picks - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17

***2012-2013 League Champion***
***2011-2012 Runner Up***
***2010-2011 League Champion***