Originally Posted by blayze
I get what you're saying with the whole "perceived value" strategy... I'm a big proponent of it myself, but I don't think it applies here.
It applies when there's a player you really want, but there's a good chance you can pick him up in a later round... so you gamble and pick up someone else instead, hoping to scoop him up later for cheap. I think this kind of strategy works best with certain players who fly under the radar or guys who are considered damaged goods for one reason or another - I'm talking guys like Gaborik, Whitney, St. Louis, etc.
That's not going to happen to Seguin... at least not in competent pools with skilled GMs. The gap between Seguin and Neal in terms of perceived value is so close that I doubt many will have the opportunity to scoop both once the snake comes back around (unless some idiot reaches super early for Neal or it's a really small league).
I also think you're underestimating the "perceived value" of Seguin - most of the guys in my leagues (and from what I can tell, those in the know on this forum) are VERY high on him. Wouldn't shock me at all if he goes late first round or early second round in my cash pools.
Fair enough - every league is different. Sure, I can understand that many would be really high on him, but I don't think I'm underestimating him. Thinking he's a second round pick is pretty fair. But in a one-year league, I still wonder how many people would make that high a pick in a shortened season on a guy who hasn't broken 70 yet. And I know Giroux did, but not everyone is Giroux (but Seguin could be, sure). Food for thought.