Originally Posted by horrorfan
I don't usually do this but I need to mention my point again: perceived value.
You could argue all you want on who will have a better season but where do you think the other managers would draft them? I would bet that Neal would be drafted before Seguin, and likely a round or so before.
So, the question of where to draft is not always where you think they'll produce, rather where you feel you can maximise value from that pick. Having the 11th slot out of 14 is tough to get Seguin unless you reach a bit (IMO) at pick 18, but sometimes that's worth the risk. Or if you feel that other players will go ahead, plus goalies, Karlsson etc and Seguin can slip to the third, then that could work as well.
Will Seguin outpoint or come close to matching Neal? Possibly.
Will Seguin be drafted above Neal? Unlikely, unless you do it.
I get what you're saying with the whole "perceived value" strategy... I'm a big proponent of it myself, but I don't think it applies here.
It applies when there's a player you really want, but there's a good chance you can pick him up in a later round... so you gamble and pick up someone else instead, hoping to scoop him up later for cheap. I think this kind of strategy works best with certain players who fly under the radar or guys who are considered damaged goods for one reason or another - I'm talking guys like Gaborik, Whitney, St. Louis, etc.
That's not going to happen to Seguin... at least not in competent pools with skilled GMs. The gap between Seguin and Neal in terms of perceived value is so close that I doubt many will have the opportunity to scoop both once the snake comes back around (unless some idiot reaches super early for Neal or it's a really small league).
I also think you're underestimating the "perceived value" of Seguin - most of the guys in my leagues (and from what I can tell, those in the know on this forum) are VERY high on him. Wouldn't shock me at all if he goes late first round or early second round in my cash pools.
He's definitely one of the few guys in my crosshairs this year and I'll consider reaching for him in round 2 depending on who I get with my round 1 pick.