I don't usually do this but I need to mention my point again: perceived value.
You could argue all you want on who will have a better season but where do you think the other managers would draft them? I would bet that Neal would be drafted before Seguin, and likely a round or so before.
So, the question of where to draft is not always where you think they'll produce, rather where you feel you can maximise value from that pick. Having the 11th slot out of 14 is tough to get Seguin unless you reach a bit (IMO) at pick 18, but sometimes that's worth the risk. Or if you feel that other players will go ahead, plus goalies, Karlsson etc and Seguin can slip to the third, then that could work as well.
Will Seguin outpoint or come close to matching Neal? Possibly.
Will Seguin be drafted above Neal? Unlikely, unless you do it.
All I've got...all I've got is insane!