Another thing to consider is perceived value. Sure, Seguin is highly regarded but he's yet (the key word here) to join the elite, so many managers will hesitate in using a high draft pick on someone who may or may not get there this season. As for Neal, although there isn't SOG or PIM, Neal still had 81 points last season and plays for the Pens so his perceived value is quite high, regardless whether he's going along the ride or creating for himself.

The reason I say this is that you are relying on the next step to justify using that higher pick. However, with the 11th pick (out of how many?), that's a tricky one since you may not get him in the third round (early second is a bit early for me). Perhaps start talking strategy with your league and say how goalies are so important and will probably go early and then maybe you'll get Seguin in the third! I don't even know your goalie cats but it may work haha!

To summarise, I would draft them exactly the same way I would a full league and not overanalyse the short season factors, focusing on the more predictable offensive categories (not SHP, GWG ugh!) and not worrying too much about +/-. So my order is:

Tavares (unlikely to be there at 11)
Neal (could be there and would grab him), and
Seguin (too early to pick him - 2nd/3rd round better)