Originally Posted by shallowfrozenwater
boys, Dickey has only really gotten control of the knuckler since 2010. prior to that he was a mostly nothing and ignored career. since May 2010 his numbers have been excellent, just look at Mac's stats that he put up for you.
this is not a 1 yr wonder, this is a guy who's finally put it together and is poised to show you that there's more of the same readily available.
now as far as the other end of the idea is concerned, i've been doing some other reading on the matter and it's looking like it'll ONLY be D'Arnaud on this one and will NOT be including Gose. i read one other report that said that the Jays are also looking for a prospect back in addition to Dickey ... and i'd sure love that guy to be Matt Harvey although i don't see that happening at all.
finally, if you're looking you're going to be on the cusp of winning then you do all that you can to get there. a move like this is exactly what the doctor ordered. if you have a shot then you take the shot. i'm actually a little dumbfounded by Jays fans who are saying that you don't make this move, this move is exactly the sort of move that the Jays should be looking into.
The troubling part is that this has the stinking air of an all-in move. Where are plans B, C and D?
Is Dickey really that much better than some of the free agents available? This strikes me as not that much different a situation than what most people run into in their fantasy leagues where they immediately decide to splurge on a name product giving up assets needlessly when what they should be doing is searching the waiver wire for the next big thing.
Dickey was phenomenal last season but let's look at some of the free agents that the Jays could sign instead without giving up any assets:
Dickey - 3.3 averageWAR for the past three years
Marcum - 2.6 averageWAR for the past three years
Lohse - 3.0 averageWAR for the past two years (injuries limit his sample size)
Jackson - 3.5 averageWAR for the past three years
Now obviously Wins Above Replacement should not be the lone stat you look at but I feel it's a very good stat because it shows value beyond some of the useless raw numbers and gets down to brass tax - how will this player affect the team's win total.
As you can clearly see Dickey isn't even the best of the group. He was phenomenal last season with a 4.6 WAR but what are the odds we see that again? This is totally a buy high scenario.
Now maybe the Jays can't lure Marcum back or Lohse or Jackson to town without overpaying. I don't know the inner workings of this deal but what I do know is that money is apparently no longer much of an issue Jays. They seem intent on spending for a winner. So if they are going to spend why spend AND give up other assets. Dickey is not so good he's irreplaceable. This is not the Jays going out and acquiring a 25-year-old ace in the midst of his prime.
I just think that you'd rather overpay for one of the other available options and roll the dice and see where you are at. If that move fails at least you still have assets on the farm to bail yourself out. If the Jays go in reverse and make this trade for Dickey they'll have used assets unnecessarily and also cost themselves the chance to course correct if the season goes south.
And having said all that if they do do a deal where they get Dickey for just D'Arnaud or do a deal where they get Dickey and a good young pitcher for D'Arnaud and Gose then I can understand but selling the farm just for Dickey on a one-year deal seems incredibly narrow-minded and short-sighted.