1. I agree past trends of fast/slow will be less important. What's more important to me is what players have been doing during the long offseason.
1. Roto v. Head-2-Head. In roto I'd prefer guys playing in Europe or the AHL. They are in game shape and will miss fewer steps in the first month. However in Head-2-Head (where fantasy playoffs are key) I think fresh guys have an edge. During the fantasy playoffs these guys will be on games 45-56 whereas guys who played in Europe will be on games 75+.
2. Rookies (and young guns). Most of these guys are playing in the AHL (and a few overseas). I'd expect a big fall-off for such players in the second half, especially rookies coming from 40-50 game seasons last year. For example, Justin Schultz is coming off a 45 game season. If the NHL starts he'll likely play 80+ games between AHL and NHL, combine that almost twice as long season with the fact half the league will be fresher than him and I can see a big fall-off down the stretch for guys like Schultz, including increased likelihood of nagging injuries.
3. Off-Season Surgery. Obviously their stock rises. Quick, Kesler, Gaborik were all supposed to be out to start the season, if you're using rankings based on an 82 game schedule these guys get a huge bump (especialy Kesler and Gaborik)
4. Deep Playoff Runs. Usually Stanley Cup hangovers lead to slow starts, with the lengthy layoff I don't see that in itself being a factor this season.
5. Band-Aid Boys. Higher risk higher reward in my opinion. If the season is more games per night anyone with any nagging injuries is more likely to re-injure or play through the nagging, hurting production. However those guys who just can't seem to make 82 games ever may be able to make 60 games
12 team H-2-H 1 year league, daily roster 3 goalie start minimum
2xC, 2xRW, 2xLW, 4xD, 3xUtil, 2xG, 5 Bench
G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA
C: Stamkos,Thornton, Riberio, Stepan, Desharnais, Clune
LW: Moulson, Dupuis, Prust,
RW: Kessel, P. Kane, Wheeler, Stempniak
D: Hamonic, Zidlicky, Franson, Muzzin
G: Bryzgalov, Hiller, Fasth