The top 3 are definite locks for me: Doughty, Edler, and Phaneuf. After that it's between Kulikov and Smith, like you've said.
I like Kulikov over Smith, but it's pretty close. In the end I think Kulikov's experience is the deciding factor. The injuries are an issue, certainly, but he put up 28 points in 58 games on the 2nd pairing and PP2, behind Garrison and Campbell. That's a 40 point pace as a #3/4 defenseman. There's no reason that he won't be a top pairing, PP1 guy this year.
You can make an argument either way, but that's what I'd be thinking.