Originally Posted by Pengwin7
It's a close trade... closer than most make it seem.
It's a 2-for-2 deal.
We have to consider the 2nd player:
Case 1: 2nd Player is Waiver-Wire-End-of-Redraft Forward
There are 11 teams x 12F = 132F.
Last year's #132F in the NHL scored 42pts.
I call this the Waiver-Wire-Forward (WWF).
95pt Stamkos is +53pts on the WWF.
42pt WWF added in. (Because you have to grab this guy at the end of draft, assumed).
80pt Rick Nash (IMO) is a +38pts on the WWF.
65pt Jeff Skinner (IMO) is a +23pts on the WWF.
Stamkos + WWF = 137pts
Nash + Skinner = 145pts
In this case, slight edge to Nash/Skinner side.
But this is for a post-draft case.
As "keeper value" goes, you have to look at that.
Case 2: 2nd Player in deal = Your promoted Keeper#12 for future years.
Perhaps this is a 55pt forward?
In that case,
Stamkos (95pts) + NewKeeper (55pts) = 150pts.
Nash (80pts) + Skinner (65pts) = 145pts.
Now the Stamkos-side is ahead.
Usually in 2-for-1 trades, the team getting the best player wins.
It's often NOT because of the best player involved... so much as it is the fact that it is EASY to upgrade on the 2nd player that goes along with the Stamkos.
Here, eventually you will find a 12th keeper that is better (or WAY better) than a 55pt forward. And that is why the Stamkos-side comes out on top.
As usual, Pengwin brings some useful insight to the table...
If this trade ever pans out, this would allow me to protect a second defenseman such as Carlson or Kulikov. As of now, only Shattenkirk will be protected once the draft and the season arrive. I feel like I can scoop up 2 good D in the first 2 rounds while others will scramble for forwards. GM's in my league normally protect a lot of D. So my 12th keeper would be a 35-45 points (best case scenario) defenseman.
With my personal predictions, the trade would look like:
Nash (72 pts) + Skinner (65 pts) = 137
Stamkos (90) + Carlson / Kulikov (40) = 130
What makes it a no-brainer imo is the fact that I would have a true game-breaker, a top-3 player. I believe I have enough depht at forward to sustain the loss of 2 good forwards, especially if Kane and Wheeler pan out like I think they can.
Anyways, all speculation... I guess we all miss the real season.
Thanks Bettman & friends.