Quote:
Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek
If you go to the league breakdown, you'll see there are two tables, one for average and one for replacement.
You'd have to pull that data from the rankings themselves, I guess.
I'm not sure what valued you'd get from comparing against different RW slots (#1 RW, #3 RW, etc) though... either way you want a single "reference point" against which to compare a player, regardless of which RW spot they fill.
Hah, funny how perspective works -- I'd argue that's the advantage with z-scores. If a player is soooo bad at filling up a given bucket, even if they're filling a few other buckets, it should be a major hit to their value. Downplaying those "knocks" has a massive cumulative negative effect on the performance of a team.
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Yeah definitely... but with that said, most leagues aren't cumulative based, you don't get 1 overall z-score as a score for the week, you break it down category by category...
So if I get 1 more goal than my opponent in H2H I win that category, so it's not about how much above the standard deviation I am... I can be 3 s.d. above in 3 categories, but 0.1 s.d. below in the other 3, and I still 50/50 my win/loss ratio, but my cumulative s.d. for a player would be huge because I was so high in the 3 but low in the 3 losses... or the other scenario where I might have a player that is really crappy in 2 stats (-3 s.d.), but good enough to secure me 4 stats (0.1 s.d), the overall picture would paint him to be a bad fantasy player, but in a H2H scenario he might be a "good own" cause he helps me in 4 categories at the cost of just 2...
which is where a player like Sedin for instance could provide you with such great value because in the areas that he is so strong in, he's so far above the rest of the alternatives that you could single handedly secure a couple of stats as opposed to being "across the board".
I find Thornton the same boat, which is why I'm constantly left scratching my head why his value he's constantly under-rated... Yes his G, SOG are very low compared to his tier of Cs but his A, +/- and PPP are so far above the average that it gives him such an edge that you're trading 3 stats for 2... In H2H it's about winning half + the tie breaker to secure victory, you don't need to win anymore than that.
Roto is a little bit different, because you are after higher "highs", but you also don't want low "lows" as well. You have to have an "across the board" team. So you kinda want to have players with higher standard deviations... but there's also a limit on those standard deviations as well, like you don't want a team that crushes everyone in goals, but you are crap in assists, +/- and PIM...
For me I want to secure enough to get me the victory, and grabbing the best player that will get it done for me.
That's where I find z-scores a bit of a dilemma, because you're adding all the z-scores to paint an overall picture of a player, but in fantasy, player values are judged by individual categories as opposed to a cumulative score. A scenario like Kessel would be great for H2H cause he helps out in 4 categories while sacrificing 2, which would lead to a small victory. The only problem for me is the 4 areas in which Kessel is strong in there is leeway for error, whereas an option like Sedin, because the areas of his strength are so much more than the average of the alternative, I can lock his strengths away and not have to worry too much about leeway for error.
