Originally Posted by blayze
Dude I'm usually in agreement with you, but you're completely out to lunch on this one...
First of all, it makes NO SENSE to compare ideal year vs. ideal year... Let's look at the reality of it TODAY. Pittsburgh has arguably the strongest team in the league with the best player in the world apparently healthy and ready to go. Montreal on the other hand will arguably be one of the shittiest teams in the league. Flower is in a MUCH better position to succeed than Price going forward.
Your assessment of Fleury also makes no sense... Fleury had 42 wins last year, and you're suggesting his best case scenario is 35 wins? How does that math work? And why wouldn't you EVER expect him to clear .920? He hit .921 in 2008 and hit .918 just two seasons ago... you make it sound like as if .920 is out of the realm of possibility or something. I think GAA and SV% will be close... but Price doesn't win shit "Handily". And how can you confidently state he'll win such a random stat like SO "handily"? Other than his one year where he had 8 shutouts, the rest of his career he's fluctuated between 1-4 SO... just like Flower.
Take off the rose-coloured glasses my friend...
First off... rose-coloured glasses? I'm an Oil fan, I hate the Habs. Not sure where you're going with that comment. I'm simply talking from an unbiased fantasy hockey perspective.
Second, Price has only started 2 full seasons. I mean if you want to look at the 41, 41, and 52 GP seasons then that's a pretty flawed sample. I'm looking at the past 2 years for each goalie.
During the past 2 years, Fleury had 3 shutouts in both years and Price had 4 and 8. SO may be random, but Price averaged twice as many SO as Fleury over the past two years. I'm willing to bet he beats him in the upcoming year in SO as well.
And reality of it today, is that looking at last years stats, you're looking at Fleury's best year in his career and a sub-par performance from Price.
..And even then the stats are:
.916 SV%, 2.43 GAA, 4 SO, 26W
.913 SV%, 2.36 GAA, 3 SO, 42W
SV%, GAA, and SO are all super close. Fleury dominates in wins. Fleury was the better own last year, even though the categories break down to a 2-2 tie.
And then more reality of today... Fleury has a capable backup for the first time. Now some say that will motivate him to be better, and sure, let's say it does. But point is, even if Vokoun's impact is marginal, Fleury will still lose a couple of starts. That's why I said his upside for wins is 35-36.
He won 63% of his games last year and 55% the year before. So let's say Vokoun has virtually no effect and Fleury plays 65 games. That would be 41 wins under last years win % and 36 wins under the previous year's win %. So that's an average of 38.5 wins. Slightly above my estimate, but that assumes Vokoun has no impact.
If Vokoun starts even 20 games that limits Fleury to 62 starts which is 39 and 34 for an average of 36.5... and that's only cutting Fleury's starts by 5 from last year.
And Fleury hit .921 SV% in a season where he started a mere 35 games... Hardly representative of a full season sample. In his career of being a starter, Fleury has cleared .915 SV% ONCE
in ~5 years of in years with 55+ starts. So yea, I'm not relying on him to clear .920 SV% anytime soon.
Flower is in a better position to succeed, I'm not denying that. But I'm saying that despite his situation, Price is capable of posting better numbers in a bad situation, than Fleury is capable of posting in a fantastic system.
Situation is certainly something to consider, but you have to consider talent too. Vokoun played for pretty much the worst team in the league for 4 years and averaged a SV% of .923, GAA of 2.57, 6 SO, and 25 wins a year.
I mean let's just compare these two for a minute...
Fleury 35W, .912 SV%, 2.67 GAA, 4 SO
Vokoun 26W, .926 SV%, 2.49 GAA, 6 SO
Vokoun wins 3/4 cats
Fleury 37 W, .905 SV%, 2.65 GAA, 1 SO
Vokoun 23W, .925 SV%, 2.55 GAA, 7 SO
Vokoun wins 3/4 cats
Fleury 36W, .918 SV%, 2.32 GAA, 3 SO
Vokoun 22W, .922 SV%, 2.55 GAA, 6 SO
2-2 Tie in categories
What's my point? 3 years running, a good goalie on a bad team (ironically, Fleury's competitor for starts now) beat or equalled Fleury playing for a team that won the cup during that span.
So... situation isn't everything. Fleury is in one of the best situations of all goalies in the NHL, but he still doesn't have elite stats.