Originally Posted by Hey_Robbie
But there are only so many points to be scored in the 19 minutes per game Giroux is out there - when are these extra second assists going to accrue? It seems we'd have to believe that the Flyers as a team had to have been "unlucky" when Giroux was on so that in fact the total number of assists scored while he was on ice was low, and so if that regresses to the mean then we can boost Giroux's projection (not to mention all those who spent a lot of time on ice with him as found in Frozen Pool). If that's the case, couldn't we find this more reliably and with a (IMO) less tenuos chain of reasoning by looking for anomalies in Goals-For Off-ice/60min (available at Behind the Net)?In terms of pure numbers analysis, this seems to be sufficient, and maybe as far as we can go. Of course if a player suddenly has the opportunity to play with a sniper we can factor that in, but that's in the realm of what I think of as "hockey analysis" vs. "statistical analysis."
A fair response.
I think we have to start with one player-based statistic: A1 vs. A2.
I can't remember Giroux's linemates in 2009-2010 (the 47pt season), but if memory serves (as a Flyers fan)... back then Mike Richards & Jeff Carter were still centering their own lines and Giroux was C3. (Gagne-Richie-Carter were F1 and Hartnell-Briere-Leino/JVR were F2, if I recall).
In this case, his 3rd line linemates would be pretty poor & the only way he's going to get (non-PP) points is:
1. Score the goal himself.
2. Directly assist the goal-scorer.
Now, in 2010-2011 Giroux found his way up to the 2nd line
, sliding Carter to RW for much of the season, with most common linemates (per LWL):
Powe - Giroux - Carter
JVR - Giroux - Carter
Zherdev - Giroux - Carter
Well, in that season he's now got at least one linemate that can also pass/score and even the 3rd linemate (JVR/Zherdev) is fairly skilled. This means there is now opportunity for more 2nd assists. Typically, we see this linemate-skill-increase and can cite that criterion alone as reason for point-increase. With a deft-passer like Giroux, it's even more of a bonus
because he can pass to JVR/Zherdev and they may feed Carter... or he can pass to Carter and JVR/Zherdev may score. The opportunity for 2nd assists is mostly a reflection of his promotion to the 2nd line.
Now, we could have just seen it that way (promotion to 2nd line) and many people did (based on training camp line-ups & pure speculation of skill placement).
But the promotion comes because his own coaches were probably well aware that his passing talents (A1 heavy) were wasted on the 3rd line.
So - combination of hockey-analysis & statistical-analysis, yes.
The combination of both (which is represented here! in the Dobber community!) has the traits to see the increase coming!!!