11-06-2012, 10:38 AM
Originally Posted by Pengwin7
If a guy has 30 assists... what does it tell us?
Most of the time, I think we all just take assists and use the same number for future seasons.
But if we know a guy had 28 first assists & 2 second assists... I believe we can say "Wow, this guy must be an incredible passer to set-up goals - and perhaps he was very unlucky that he only got 2 second assists."
I think first assists is a fairly reliable stat.
It's something we should "count" on with a little more security.
I think second assists is a less reliable stat.
If a player had a high number of second assists, perhaps we should adjust his future assist totals to be a bit lower (with regard to second assists).
If a player had a low number of second assists, perhaps we should adjust his future assist totals to be a bit higher (with regard to second assists).
I wonder if your assumptions about the consistency of A1 vs. A2 differentially hold true for player situation. I could imagine a lot of interaction between, say anomalous power play production in a given year and extreme (high or low) ratios of primary to secondary assists. If a defenseman's team had unusual success on the power play last year, might that give a boost in A2 vs. A1? We likely all consider a trade from an offensive team to a defensive team when making our projections, but I could imagine I'd be more concerned if a player with a low A1:A2 ratio was traded to a lower-scoring team than if a player with a high ratio were in a similar situation, because those secondary assists may have been boosted by the team around him, while the primary assists might travel with the player if they represent in part the player's inherent passing skill.
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