Originally Posted by fastdogs
1 league my final keeper spot comes down to Hosmer or Willingham. Willingham went 35/110 while hitting a decent .260. If healthy, 30/95 seems likely again for 'Ham while even if he has a great year Hosmer isn't going to hit 30 next year. This is a 5 year keeper league where Hosmer could be kept 2 more years after '13 if he improves. Is the chance Hosmer steps up worth keeping him over Willingham and his pretty much sure thing power #'s? Right now 1's my final keeper and the other is back in the draft so that final keeper spot should be replaceable by finding keepers in the draft of 13 or with a hot rookie. Willingham probly has a better 13 but isn't likely a keeper in 14; where Hosmer just has to take a step up to garner keeper-worthiness again. Your thoughts on Hosmer vs Willingham and Hosmer in general; I have him in 2 other leagues but neither is as tough a call as this 1. Part of me just wants to forget Hosmers 12 season and just pencil him in as 1 of the bright young players that will earn their keep on my teams as many years as I own them. Wishful thinking or the way it will be?
For myself, I take Hosmer. Willingham is 34 in February and I'm not sure where you get the 30/95 seems 'likely' for him - he's pulled 95 RBI's exactly twice in his career (last year and this year) and is typically more like a 70 RBI guy. His power surge is all recent, too - with 29 HR in 2011 and 35 in 2012 where his career norms are a lot closer to 20. I'd have to guess him more like a 24 HR and 90 RBI guy with .260 average if I had to project him right now. It almost defies what we know of a player when they jump 50% in power numbers at age 32. I don't have ANY hint of this, but I almost wonder if there's some PED's involved - but I do know it's unusual for a hitter to hit their mid-30's without a drop off. Add in the increased recovery time and added missed games from misc. injuries that build up and I'd call 2012 a career year for Willingham.
Hosmer, on the other hand, is probably about the same stats as Willingham (24 HR and 90 RBI with a .260) but has more upside and as a younger player should have a better shot at staying healthy.
I will tell you the analysis for one year is fairly close - but when I'm given a choice, I'll take a 23 year old who's got more to learn over a 34 year old who's producing out of nowhere. Especially in a keeper format.