Nice work here, newf.
As a numbers guy, you've found some really intriguing numerical comparisons.
Gomez was a very good player for the first 7-8 years of his career, including his first year with the Rangers was even good. For years, the Rangers had overpaid for "star" players just because they had the money. Montreal has done it recently too. Clubs with money will overpay if they have that money.
And let's not forget, Gomez CHOSE those two locations.
Two hockey cities where, at the time, there was very little supporting cast.
Gomez' top year was 2005-2006 where EVERYTHING went right.
He scored 84points, playing a full 82games.
He shot 13.5% (He was a career 7% shooter at that point).
He scored 33 PPP. (He averaged about 18 PPP previously).
It's always key to adjust these figures.
If he shoots 7%, he scores 17G, which brings his point total down to 68pts.
If he scores only 18PPP, that would bring his point total down to 53pts.
So, the signs were there with Gomez... the signs have ALWAYS been there.
Scott Gomez was a 55-65pt player, capable of 70pts (which he's done 3 times) AND in the "everything goes right - and the universe aligns"... he hits 84pts.
, the mistake that fantasy hockey poolies made was to miss two key facts:
1) Gomez is typically a 7% (or less) shooter
2) Gomez went from a club with good offensive depth (not quality, "depth": New Jersey) and signed on clubs with poor offensive quality AND depth (NYR & MON).
Let's move on to Getzlaf.
After touching 82pts & 91pts, he hasn't been back to 80pts.
His career high was his 91pts.
1) He shot 11%, he typically shoots about 12%. This is GOOD.
2) He scored 37 PPP. That's not a consistent number, too high. That is BAD.
Getzlaf had pegged previous PP numbers of 31 PPP & 36 PPP.
For that ANA PP, 25-30 PPP is pretty fair.
So adjusting #2 (91pts - [37-(25to30)]), we bring Getzlaf to 79-84pts
i) His worst year was last year when he shot just 5.9%.
But Getzlaf has always been a 12% shooter.
It's an "off-year", similar to Gomez's "on-year".
If we correct Getzlaf to 12%, he would have scored 22G, bringing him to 68pts.
ii) The ANA PP was not good (injured Viz). Getlzaf only had 23 PPP, another career low.
If we adjust Getzlaf to a more reasonable 25-30 PPP, Getzlaf becomes a 70-75pt player
TWO things I look for when I evaluate a player's long-term potential
i) Check his shooting % for his up-or-down year vs. his typical.
ii) Check his PPP output vs. previous years.
Gomez was a 7% shooter and 17-18 PPP player.
He had a really good year.
Two years later, he signed a big contract in a big market.
Fantasy hockey poolies invested in him too highly when he went "big market", expecting a return to the "magical" better stats in a "better place".
But he was bound for a downward statistical correction.
Getzlaf is a 12% shooter and 25-30 PPP player.
He had a really bad year.
Two years later, he could possibly sign a big contract in a big market.
Fantasy hockey poolies are only expecting him to return to his typical statistics.
He is bound for a positive statistical correction.
I don't think Gomez & Getzlaf are similar.
Getzlaf is a 70-80pt player (when factoring corrections).
Gomez was a 55-65pt player (when factoring corrections).