Steve - nice write up and I agree with your logic. Karlsson was quite literally 10th on my list, behind four goalies.
All four goalies were taken, plus six big forwards. I didn't want to be stuck with Karlsson, but I was. Do I think he'll regress? Of course I do. Will that regression be 10 points or more? No way. He'll still beat all defensemen by 10 points. If healthy, Green and Letang will get close to 70. Karlsson also is a safe 80-game pick.
You disagree with my pick. I disagree with my pick too. But nobody can disagree with the fact that I didn't have a choice. I saw the goalies left:
Fleury, Kipper, Bryzgalov, Ward, Smith. I next picked eight spots away. My preference was actually Bryzgalov, then Ward, then Fleury, then Kipper. But since the Big 4 were gone, frankly I didn't give a damn which one of these five I got.
So I had to decide. Karlsson wasn't getting back to me. But one of those five will. So I made the call - I got Karlsson and I got one of the five. And because Kipper wasn't someone who overly made me feel warm inside, I made certain to pick up two other starters with 32 win upside and 25 win likelihood.
Don't be hard on me, I knew what I was doing!
14 Team Keeper, points only, best 12 skaters 2 dman 2 G count. Playoffs count.
F - Crosby, C.Smith, Wheeler, Parenteau, Hudler, Clowe, Grabovski, Atkinson, Frolik, S. Kostitsyn, Marchand, Peverley, Tavares, Read, Brouwer, Bickell, Gionta, Setoguchi
G - Anderson, Hiller, Markstrom, Brodeur
D - Letang, Del Zotto, I. White, Kronwall, Brodin, Nikitin