Thinking of going Ravens for both my pools this week.
They are down to 4 and 11.
Other choices based on moneyline:
Atl vs Car -321 - I just don't feel comfortable going against Newton. ATL also likely the best pick in week 6.
Hou vs Ten -675 - This is actually the biggest moneyline favourite. I've used HOU in one of my pools, and I think they have a lot of future value. Namely weeks 9, 11, 15, 16.
Ari vs Mia -265 - This isn't bad. The odds of winning aren't great though, and I'd also like to keep them as an option to use in Week 12 vs STL.
Den vs Oak -285 - This is probably my 2nd favourite. DEN has limited future value except weeks 16 and 17. At the rate these pools are going I don't expect them to even go that long. I'd pick DEN here if they were a bigger favourite to win, but I'm not that comfortable with only a 6.5 spread and -285.
GB vs NO -335. GB should win this, but they have too much future value. Also may be rattled after that amazing MNF result.
So those are really the only teams I'd even consider picking. I just don't see a strong enough reason to pick anyone over BAL. BAL doesn't have much future value except week 9 @ CLE and week 10 vs OAK. There's enough other picks those weeks, that I don't need to rely on saving BAL for it.
Lastly, I think another factor is I'm gone this weekend. It would be nice to see BAL win on Thurs and be relaxed that I'm advancing when I'll be unable to watch or even follow the games on Sunday. I think if I felt something else was a better choice I would take it, but this is a nice added bonus to taking Baltimore.
The only reason I'm considering not taking BAL is I imagine most people in my pools are taking them as well. So if I take someone else and win, and Baltimore manages to lose, I'll probably win the pool, or be damn close. I'm not sure if I can justify doing that at this stage of the pool though.
Last edited by chowder; 09-26-2012 at 01:56 AM.