Originally Posted by chowder

i disagree. i think when making your pick you have to weigh a number of options, and probably give weight to them in the following order:

1) likelihood they will win this week
2) % of other teams in your league that will pick that team
3) future value

1) for 1 you can simply use the vegas moneyline, and perhaps some of your own intuition, but i don't know much about football so i just stick to looking at the odds.

2) yahoo (or espn, etc) tells you the % of people picking each team per week. it's fair to assume that your league will likely be similar to those numbers. as it gets deeper into the season you can cross-reference those %'s with the people in your pool to see if they even have those teams remaining. early a survivor pool it's safe to assume your league will be fairly similar to the yahoo default numbers.

3) future value is worth a lot and can be the deciding factor. i was going to write something on this, but i'm lazy right now so won't. maybe i will later.

my main point is that simply picking the team that is most likely to win each week is not the best way to win survivor pools.