Originally Posted by Zorro
This is what you shouldn't do in a survivor pool.. You can't rely on saving the good teams for the future if you aren't there in the end..
But you really can't go wrong with Pittsburgh or NWO this week.. I wouldn't touch the STL/CHI or DAL/TB games.......
i disagree. i think when making your pick you have to weigh a number of options, and probably give weight to them in the following order:
1) likelihood they will win this week
2) % of other teams in your league that will pick that team
3) future value
1) for 1 you can simply use the vegas moneyline, and perhaps some of your own intuition, but i don't know much about football so i just stick to looking at the odds.
2) yahoo (or espn, etc) tells you the % of people picking each team per week. it's fair to assume that your league will likely be similar to those numbers. as it gets deeper into the season you can cross-reference those %'s with the people in your pool to see if they even have those teams remaining. early a survivor pool it's safe to assume your league will be fairly similar to the yahoo default numbers.
3) future value is worth a lot and can be the deciding factor. i was going to write something on this, but i'm lazy right now so won't. maybe i will later.
my main point is that simply picking the team that is most likely to win each week is not the best way to win survivor pools.