Marleau - too hot to be a sell high? - Fantasy Sports Forums

horrorfan · #1 01-29-2013, 06:19 PM

Just to see where the discussion goes...

We've obviously noticed how unbelievably scorching Marleau has been so far this season. But I wonder if his ridiculous start to the season would cause his current perceived value to actually be lower than expected due to the obvious regression that awaits.

Let's say you offer him for someone like Ovechkin (or any example of a potential buy low), it 'should' be obvious to that manager that it's an attempt of a sell high/buy low given his pace to start the season. But if he was on a point per game pace or thereabouts, it might give the manager some more thought if he's concerned about said 'buy low' player.

I know, I'm probably just over thinking it (the analyst in me) but thought I'd post this and see what responses I get. It's getting late here so won't be back on until tomorrow to see what you all think.

blayze · #2 01-29-2013, 06:26 PM

I've been a chronic Marleau owner for many years in my one-year leagues, and if there's one thing I know about him, it's that he fizzles down the stretch.

Perhaps this year will be different since it's a shortened season, but if it were me I'd definitely be looking to sell high.

And yes, you are over-thinking it - sell high while his value is inflated

NoWayOut · #3 01-29-2013, 06:41 PM

I agree with Blayze that your over-thinking it, but I see what your angling at.

Anytime you as the owner of a hot player are the one making trade overtures it amplifies the sell high vibe. The other guy senses real or perceived desperation and will hesitate to give as much. He sees this as your wanting to bail out because your thinking the correction will be ugly. So it kind of increases his concerns over what that correction will be and scares him into offering less to hedge his bets.

Personally I'd be wary of dealing for a hot player that is being shopped to me. That degree of wariness is also proportional to that player though. If I believe the player will be an upgrade even after the correction then I talk deal. In Marleau's case I would definitely talk deal as I think even after the inevitable correction he's still an valuable player for just about any but the most stacked roster.

horrorfan · #4 01-30-2013, 03:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blayze

I've been a chronic Marleau owner for many years in my one-year leagues, and if there's one thing I know about him, it's that he fizzles down the stretch.

Perhaps this year will be different since it's a shortened season, but if it were me I'd definitely be looking to sell high.

And yes, you are over-thinking it - sell high while his value is inflated

Interesting you say that about fizzling down the stretch - I was curious so had a quick look over the last few years and he's had both weak and strong finishes so I'm not sure there's a pattern. But of course, given the current production, he's bound to regress.

As for whether to sell high or not, yeah Marleau owners should if they can, but that wasn't really the point of this post. I was curious on whether his current extreme production would have a negative effect on whether selling high was actually possible. Thanks.

horrorfan · #5 01-30-2013, 03:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoWayOut

I agree with Blayze that your over-thinking it, but I see what your angling at.

Anytime you as the owner of a hot player are the one making trade overtures it amplifies the sell high vibe. The other guy senses real or perceived desperation and will hesitate to give as much. He sees this as your wanting to bail out because your thinking the correction will be ugly. So it kind of increases his concerns over what that correction will be and scares him into offering less to hedge his bets.

Personally I'd be wary of dealing for a hot player that is being shopped to me. That degree of wariness is also proportional to that player though. If I believe the player will be an upgrade even after the correction then I talk deal. In Marleau's case I would definitely talk deal as I think even after the inevitable correction he's still an valuable player for just about any but the most stacked roster.

Fair enough. I guess it can also come down to who you're targeting and their respective perceived value going forward, and whether the difference is negligible.

But generally, I thought it would be interesting to see what people thought about it. Thanks.

Pengwin7 · #6 01-30-2013, 10:33 AM

Players that I think a hot-Marleau could fetch right now in 1-for-1 trades in one-year leagues:
*James Neal
*Phil Kessel
*Corey Perry

A smart-manager is not going to give up these guys.
But there are fantasy hockey poolies that grow antsy quickly and make rash decisions.

blayze · #7 01-30-2013, 11:38 AM

Kessel maybe... a GM would have to be completely off his rocker to consider the other 2 haha

kevinsrangers · #8 01-30-2013, 11:42 AM

shoot for the moon.
there are managers who always seem to by high. you must know who they are in your league.
use the ''even if he settles a bit he'll still be a .........point guy'' aproach.

duducks · #9 01-31-2013, 09:27 AM

Bodog has a very interesting bet up right now on Marleau.

Can bet either way on this equally (bet 1.20 to win 1.00)

Will Marleau lead the NHL in Regular Season goals?

DerekReese · #10 01-31-2013, 09:53 AM

I would poke his name out and see if someone is willing to overpay for Marleau. You know from past years that Marleau isnt going to stay at his torrid pace and he will come back down to earth. I would target Gm's that have some big name talent and then start the trade talk and see where it goes.

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