How to do research? - Page 3 - Fantasy Sports Forums

metaldude26 · #21 08-11-2010, 05:15 PM

My best research is done right here. Buy the guide, read the articles and the ramblings, and for god's sake hit the message boards and ask more questions like this one. Let someone else do the leg work for you.

Shakedown · #22 08-11-2010, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UAVMX

So I'm still new (second year) in fantasy hockey....how do you guys do your research? How do you figure out who the top 6 players were for a given team?

For example, lets say I'm researching Vanek, I go to dobbers fantasy tools and pull up what line he played on the majority of the time.

Roy, Stafford, Vanek

How do I then go and find out what line that ranks for buffalo? Was that their top line? Bottom line? Etc?

I don't watch every single game out there, i find it hard to follow every NHL team that closely, my "team" that i watch is a west coast team

How do you guys do research and start valuing players?

How do you keep track of who's being added to a team and what impact it will have. For example, if buffalo added another center, someone that could set up better, how do you know if he would impact vaneks production?

Just trying to become a better GM, thanks guys

All the above and then get NHL center Ice and watch all the damn games..LOL

seriously, lots of valuable advice above..

read tons of info and watch lots of games...simple as that

The Good Sir · #23 08-11-2010, 05:32 PM

Excellent Post! When I first started Fantasy Hockey (about 7 or 8 yrs ago now) I had no idea what I was doing (some will say I still don't). Those first few years are crucial and I would recommend acting like a sponge. Pretty much soak up everything you can. As others have said this site is an excellent resource and I wish I had it when I was first starting out. There are so many knowledgeable people here and all of them are willing to help. HF Boards are a good resource too, but too many trolls hang out there and will give you misleading information with an attitude. I prefer these boards over all else. The more time you put into it, the better an understanding you'll have and the better prepared you will be. It's good to draw your information from many sources also, as others have pointed out. 8 Years later, I look back at the Fantasy Hockey Virgin I was and laugh at some of the decisions I made/didn't make just from being ignorant. The more you learn and lean on your peers here (and elsewhere) for advice, the clearer the landscape of Fantasy Hockey will become. Just Know that there is now turning back from this road. It sucks you in and you will never look at the great sport of Hockey the same way again. Knowledge is Power as they say. So now you know... and knowing is half the battle.... Thanks G.I. Joe.

Domi's Homey · #24 08-11-2010, 11:45 PM

Here's another simple practice that I've maintained every year:

Read the boxscores every morning.

Eventually you'll start to see patterns of which players are producing in various ways, including goalies. And when a name pops up often that you don't recognize, then study up more closely on him with other fantasy tools.

UAVMX · #25 08-12-2010, 03:56 AM

I do have center ice!! Last year when I got it, I watched more games then I ever have before. Specifically because I was doing fantasy, and I was interested in seeing "my players" play.

The problem is I deploy for work, so sometimes i can go for stretches without being able to watch games..bbooooo

InForAPenny · #26 08-12-2010, 04:33 AM

One thing that I have found that really helps me is to keep a separate file (excel usually); and start a list of players to keep an eye on. It is here that I keep info relevant to my pool categories.

I especially like it for prospects, but it works well for established players too. I then in the course of reading the various articles/websites/interviews, take notes and compile them on my central file.

Sure I remember a lot of the info, but I find it really helps, especially if there is a guy I had interest in at the beginning of the offseason and haven't thought about in a while, I can look at my notes and make informed judgment calls.

I definitely agree with others here that these boards are phenomenal for information. I really like that I can think things through thoroughly, post a question in here and get several more insights that I hadn't considered. Its pretty much a collective effort to winning a pool, and one of the best aspects of Dobberhockey in my mind.

capretto2002 · #27 08-12-2010, 11:03 AM

It has been said above, but just some more elaboration.

You must be aware of how deep your league is. You'll find yourself reading excellent articles describing a player that might break out for 50 points for example. Make sure there aren't 60 point players in FA first.

This goes for drafting too. I've been in one year leagues where people start picking this year's draft class in the first round. Very few of this year's draft class are going to be impactful in a 1 year league (assuming that it isn't absurdly deep).

Know your Categories. I generally play H2H format, but I was in a roto league where the goalie categories were W,L, GAA, SV%. (personally I think this setup was intrinsically flawed) Only one of those categories benefits from quantity of games. There was literally a manager who after the first week had a GAA of 1.1, a SV% over .95, and no losses. He never started another goalie, he finished last in Ws, but first in the other 3 categories and was able to use more roster spots on skaters.

Aside from that ridiculous example, i realized that I was never playing my 3rd goalie, because it was a league about quality starts not a quantity of starts.

gfunkb7 · #28 08-12-2010, 01:37 PM

On my part, I will be doing my first H2H fantasy this season. I've been doing fantasy 1years for last 2 years with the same people (12-deep) and I've picked up the stronger GM's vs the weaker one's. I believe knowing and anticipate the other GM's behavior is crucial (not only for draft purposes) but also during the entire season. For example, one GM knew that another GM was high on Paul Kariya. He picked him up in draft and exchanged him 4-5 games into the season: Carter & Kariya for Kane & St-Louis. Then again, that GM represents that 0.01% edge as 99.99% of rational GM's in this world would have decline with a 1-minute-long-laugh this trade.

I check rotoworld.com and cbssports.com for injuries and updated news.

As I dont have center ice, I practically check nhl.com's "Event summary" & "TOI" game reports. I prefered nhl.com's old TOI version, with the green bars...much more easier to determine lines.

and of course, dobberhockey.com

plus, i doubt my other french speaking league members checks for info in here so i have an edge.

Nights · #29 08-12-2010, 08:11 PM

(Warning : Wall of Text that slightly goes deeper then the actual topic)

Although I am one who has played Fantasy hockey for only 2 years now, I'd have to say I was more interested then that before hand.

Being a huge fan of hockey slowly got my parents into getting me a yearly subscription to The Hockey News (which ultimately made me discover dobber and aftarwards, this website). I started reading some the magazines every week and then online articles. And then the yearbooks with all the stats (and me being a math junkie) and then decided to get into fantasy hockey.

This led me to a solid database of about a few years worth of stats, knowledge of stats from around the league. I find the best research is not done within an hour, but if done over a steady period of time. I read some topics over here everyday, read snippits every now and then on players I had never heard of before, watch a ton of (Leaf) games so I get an understanding of how some players play, etc.

Now, all this means is that you can't just sit down for 12 hours straight infront of a computer and know everything about a player. Information changes as more variables are changed into more concise information. Reading over time gives you perspectives that evolve over time, so the hot topics of today (say, Karlsson, Skinner to use examples) are either based or baseless. Now, this website has a great community who like to help each other and as such, can help you gain a lot of information that would require a bit of searching availible right in front of you.

I consider myself a good GM for fantasy purposes, btu that comes over time. Theory is one thing : stats are just that, a recording of what has happened. No one can accurately predict what will happen for everyone : if you get even 5 player's right you're pretty good. You can read as much as you want, but applying theory into practice is something most scientists also know isn't as easy as it sounds. Things happen, you underestimate/overestimate/forget another factor. You can research all you want, but if all your team hit injuries, you can't do anything. Luck also plays a part.

In the end, research is only one tool in the shed to prepare yourself for all the intangibles and variables that come in fantasy (and real) hockey. Things will happen, but the only thing you can to is to be prepared, and to act as soon as something that changes the whole scheme of things hit. But being the most prepared will give you the ability to know what you're doing (or at least think you know) so that when the time comes, you'll know what to do. Take the knowledge over time, and learn how to apply it (no one can teach that you know : each league is different, each manager is different, etc).

mabus · #30 08-14-2010, 06:06 PM

Here are some of the things I do - some of this won't work if you are new or don't like stats.

I created a database of NHL stats to get a sense of how players progress. NHL.com has great data going back a few years, but I recommend starting at hockeyreference.com. They have league stats since 1971 including player age and TOI stats in a format that is easily downloadable.

Second, I project what I think each player will do and compare to the magazines and Dobber. This helps to identify players I can wait a bit for on draft day as they might be undervalued on draft day plus I use it to tweak my rankings.

Make sure to adjust any rankings based on the specifics of your league. Hockeypookgeek can help you with this if you aren't a stats geek like me. Understanding how your league settings affect player values is the number one key to getting a leg up on at least half of your competitors.

Understand that skill changes slowly, but luck, opportunity and linemates can change very quickly and they can drastically change production - and therefore value.

After draft day, I read Dobber/Angus's ramblings. They watch a lot of games and distill a lot of information into something that takes 5-10 minutes to read. Use this info to decide if your players are increasing or decreasing in value. Act quickly if something is out of line - pick someone up on waivers or make a trade offer.

I also like to focus on leading indicators. An increase in SOG is a very positive sign for a player. Seeing players get more total icetime and/or powerplay time is also a good indicator of future production. I'm more willing to take a shot on someone with the hot hand if his icetime or linemates indicate that the change isn't just a lucky streak.

Know that short-term stats can deviate from the mean, but if the skill and opportunity are still there, the production will follow. I get most of my top guys from the waiver wire when someone else gets frustrated with a lack of production. I'm also willing to trade my hot players if the price is right.

Understand the hype cycle. A player's value is usually the highest the day he returns from an injury. Don't be one of the buyers - be a seller. Rookies also have more value before their first game than they do 6 months into the season 9 times out of 10.

Don't be stubborn. Most of us are right as often as we are wrong, so admit when you are wrong and move on.

Mabus

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