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  #11  
Old 01-17-2013, 01:40 PM
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I think Elliott will be fine.
He needs more time in the AHL.

He had a very consistent production increase in the WHL: 40/55/65/81.
Likely the COL brass wants to see similar increase in the AHL.

I think he'll be solid, from what I've seen, but he may be a year or two away (which unfortunately, is farther than what I had predicted too).

He'll be up if COL loses any offensive d-men to injury.
If Erik Johnson goes down, I think we'll see him for sure.
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Old 01-17-2013, 01:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
I think Elliott will be fine.
He needs more time in the AHL.

He had a very consistent production increase in the WHL: 40/55/65/81.
Likely the COL brass wants to see similar increase in the AHL.

I think he'll be solid, from what I've seen, but he may be a year or two away (which unfortunately, is farther than what I had predicted too).

He'll be up if COL loses any offensive d-men to injury.
If Erik Johnson goes down, I think we'll see him for sure.
Prospects are fine and all but generally they make you wait an extra year or two beyond what you would like to see. I'm going through this right now with Nyquist, Rundblad and Erixon.
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  #13  
Old 01-17-2013, 01:45 PM
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So does this change EJ's numbers one way or the other? Will he start logging Chara like ice time? I don't know, but the Av's back end looks a bit weak, I can see them having to lean on EJ big time.
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  #14  
Old 01-17-2013, 01:47 PM
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Good point.
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  #15  
Old 01-17-2013, 02:10 PM
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I remember it looking similarly for Shattenkirk a while back. I had him, dropped him when he was returned to minors. Then he got called back up a couple weeks later, and...well he has been pretty good since.

Not getting burned again on this one. I feel he'll be back up sooner than later and produce when he does.
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  #16  
Old 01-18-2013, 09:30 AM
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Shattenkirk was an exception (to date). Meszaros appeared to be an exception, a few years ago.


Actually a list of exceptions (productive)
What is productive?
- Shattenkirk, Karlsson, Doughty, Edler, Pietrangelo, Letang, Goligoski, OEL, Yandle...

roller coaster exceptions - highs & lows
MDZ, Myers, EJ, Subban...

Normal - some have had interesting stretches indicating next level is forthcoming
Barrie, Elliott, Voynov, Hedman, Rundblad, Bogo, McBain, Carlson, Orlov, Schenn, de Haan, Despres, Russell, Brendan Smith, Kulikov, Murphy, Ellis, Fowler, JJ, Leddy, Josi, Larsson, Erixon, Nikitin...

This list is incomplete.

If I've been fortunate, at best, after identifying an elite prospect, your odds of success are likely 25% to 35%. To combat this, I've tended to draft these guys when they've made the first steps of success. I don't remember the last D-man I drafted as an 18 year old. The leagues I play in don't have 'prospects' and limit rosters at 30-35. By drafting after they have proven they are going to be in the NHL, my success has been much better. Yandle, Goli, McBain, Voynov, Edler, Shattenkirk (immediately traded), Elliott (immediately traded)... I'd rather spend and buy something when it is proven, than draft endlessly hoping that the guy will break through.

Most of the good ones are first rounders. All of the good ones entered into a situation in which the organization wanted to lean on them. I think only the Phoenix boys displaced, or somewhat displaced, a veteran that might have continued for some more time (OEL, Yandle)... none started on a 100 point team (maybe because 100 point teams don't have the highest draft picks)... you could consider the break throughs to have been on teams that were rebuilding (MDZ would be an exception - maybe others)....
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  #17  
Old 01-18-2013, 12:47 PM
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add Fowler to the first list, and likely Shultz
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  #18  
Old 01-18-2013, 01:21 PM
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Depending on your league setup, some players move up and some move down.

Hamonic is an example of a useful guy in some formats. Fowler is at his best in points only and not a lot of fun if you have plus/minus.
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  #19  
Old 01-20-2013, 03:49 PM
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Looking at fantrax update to Elliot. It says he was recalled back up?
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  #20  
Old 01-20-2013, 05:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thepiper View Post
Looking at fantrax update to Elliot. It says he was recalled back up?
No he wasn't. It's just Fantrax messing up a bit on something related to their news system with players status. You'll find a lot of other "news" related to the same problem like Kesler returning to action, Sean Avery signing with NYR etc.
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