Pavelec for me, he's going to be the defacto number one in Winnipeg, and should see a lot of action this season, and should only continue to get better moving forward. If Winnipeg is in the hunt this year, Pavelec is going to start a lot of games, as he gives the Jets their best chance to win, I wouldn't be surprised if he's around 40 starts on the season. He's a much safer option than Holtby.
I feel like Holtby is a very good goalie, I'm probably higher on him than most, but this season is going to be tough as he will be battling for starts with Neuvirth. I think he has a slighty higher ceiling then Pavelec, but he may never reach that, and is a much riskier option, and the risk is not worth it.
I'd be much more comfortable this season with Pavelec as my fantasy goalie.