uspw 7220658

 

 

Campkin takes an in-depth look at Derek Stepan... and why he's kicking ass

 

At the beginning of this shortened season, I wrote a piece on Mike Ribeiro and outlined how he was a guy that I targeted in my keeper league because my team (The Campkin Cartel) needed a center and was short on assists, powerplay points and hits. Needless to say Ribeiro has been a homerun for my team, but there is actually another center who I drafted early that is doing even more for the Cartel, so I decided to make him the latest Geek of the Week: Derek Stepan.

 

 

 

Stepan is a guy who I knew I had to target early since he’s a young player with upside on a (presumably) good team. In our league setup, Stepan was a borderline keeper last season; he would have been a great keep on one of the lower teams but a top team wouldn’t have had the space to hold on to him. When he was dropped into the pool, you knew he was going to be a top pick in the draft. I had some concerns regarding his playing time (specifically his powerplay time) due to the addition of Nash but I liked that he satisfied my positional and category needs and also had some upside to boot. Before the draft, I ran a modified version of our league through Fantasy Hockey Geek to identify guys who contributed well to my needs (As, PPPs & hits from a centre). I entered these parameters into FHG and here is what came back:

 

 

(Yahoo! league using only Cs, counting A, PPP, hits and using stats from the 2011-12 season)

 

 

Rank

Player

GP

A

PPP

HITS

Keeper Status

1

Claude Giroux

77

65

38

70

Kept by another team

2

Ryan Getzlaf

82

46

23

182

Kept by another team

3

Evgeni Malkin

75

59

34

29

Kept by another team

4

Henrik Sedin

82

67

27

32

Kept by another team

5

Patrik Elias

81

52

29

61

Kept by another team

6

David Backes

82

30

17

226

Kept by another team

7

Anze Kopitar

82

51

26

72

Kept by another team

8

Steve Ott

74

28

8

278

Kept by another team

9

Joe Thornton

82

59

23

42

Kept by another team

10

Steven Stamkos

82

37

25

109

Kept by another team

11

Pavel Datsyuk

70

48

23

76

Kept by another team

12

Martin Hanzal

64

26

11

239

I also drafted

13

John Tavares

82

50

25

27

Kept by another team

14

Mike Ribeiro

74

45

15

113

I acquired

15

Patrick Marleau

82

34

25

84

Kept by me

16

Jason Spezza

80

50

24

28

Kept by another team

17

Eric Staal

82

46

23

48

Kept by another team

18

Derek Stepan

82

34

16

137

Geek of the Week

19

Brad Richards

82

41

24

51

Kept by another team

20

TJ Oshie

80

35

16

130

Kept by another team

 

 

From the above chart, you can see that even going into the season, Stepan was the 18th most valuable C for the categories my team needed. Of the top 18, the only two other guys that were available were the aforementioned Ribeiro and Martin Hanzal who I also drafted.

 

Derek Stepan was my top skater target going into the draft and I was thrilled to get him. Fast-forward to this season and not only is he providing me value in the categories that I targeted him for, but he is actually providing me value everywhere else as well. To a very large degree, the settings of our keeper league are designed exactly for a player like Stepan. Let’s take a look at the value he is giving me this season.

 

(12 team Yahoo! H2H league counting G,A,+/-,PPP, SHP,GWG,SOG,Hits)

 

 

Rank

Player

G

A

+/-

SOG

GWG

PPP

SHP

Hits

6

Derek Stepan

12

16

16

78

4

8

3

44

7

P.K. Subban

10

20

12

90

0

20

0

43

8

Jonathan Toews

18

20

22

103

3

5

2

17

9

Ilya Kovalchuk

10

17

-2

113

4

12

4

12

 

 

From the above, you can see that Stepan has actually been the 5th most valuable skater in our keeper league this season (just above a previous Geek of the Week, PK Subban).

 

Before you spit your coffee all over your computer at the sight of Stepan being valued so high, allow me to point out the major reason why. Our league counts SHP as a category and this significantly skews Stepan’s value. SHPs are by far the rarest of our 8 measured categories, to the point where when a player gets you one, you will probably win that category for the week. Stepan’s 3 SHPs therefore have single handedly won me that category three times this season leading to six points directly in the standings. By contrast, you would need about 12-15 PPPs or 20-25As to win either of those categories on a given week so you can see just how valuable one SHP can be in our league. Unique league settings like this are why I always harp on the fact that understanding your league is so critical.

Our keeper league is probably unique in that it includes SHP, so let’s take a look at Stepan’s value in a more common league setting – the Dobber Pro League.

 

 

(12 team league counting G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, Hits)

 

Rank

Player

G

A

+/-

SOG

PPP

HITS

51

Patrice Bergeron

10

21

23

93

4

24

52

Derek Stepan

12

16

16

78

8

44

53

Andrew Ladd

14

19

2

95

4

78

 

 

From the above chart you can see that in this league, Stepan is more reasonably valued as the 52nd best skater which is still tremendous value considering he is only 56% owned in Yahoo! pools and had an average draft position (ADP) in the 15th round! Brad Richards had an ADP in the 5th round and I wouldn’t even consider acquiring him straight up for Stepan.

 

Stepan’s value stems from his ability to contribute to all categories. Even if your league doesn’t include SHP as mine does, Stepan is money in the bank across all other common categories outside of maybe PIMs (he has 12 this season). The Rangers seem to be favoring Stepan over Richards now and Derek always has great line mates and sees plenty of PP time so I expect his production to continue (if not grow) over the coming seasons and the remainder of the current season. He has 18 points in 17 games since the beginning of March, five of his PPP have come in that time and he is averaging over two shots and one hit per game as well. He is accomplishing all of this while the Rangers as a team are falling below expectations.

 

Derek Stepan is a great example of the type of guys that I always like to target. With the help of FHG, I identify guys that are providing me the value I need now, with the upside to help me even more down the road. This has panned out perfectly for me this season and he will be a keeper on my team now for years to come. I’m currently in the middle of a very competitive playoff run in this keeper league and I am going to be relying very heavily on Stepan to help bring me home the cup (I could really use one of those shorties right about now). If you happen to be on a playoff run in one of the 44% of leagues where this guy is still out there – scoop him up now! Fantasy Hockey Geek is a great resource to find guys who satisfy some specific needs of your own and with some research and a bit of good luck maybe you can find a breakout guy like Stepan as I did.

 

 

Recent Geeks of the Week:

 

Derek Stepan: Geek of the Week 
Jarome Iginla: Geek of the Week 
Evander Kane: Geek of the Week 

 

 


Write comment
Comments (3)add comment

Spleentastic said:

Spleentastic
I tell ya... I traded Stepan along with Justin Faulk and Mikhail Grigorenko for Patrick Kane+, and it's really killed me to watch Stepan blossom, especially since he marked one of my favorite moments in that league (I screwed a rival by trading up during the draft so I could steal Stepan one pick before I knew he was going to take him - the reaction was priceless). Not that it's a bad thing, mind you, since I made out just fine and the other GM is obviously happy. But it's bittersweet to watch one of your own picks really develop on someone else's team, regardless of how well you did in the deal that sent them away.
April 08, 2013
Votes: +1

donpaulo said:

donpaulo
... D-step is no surprise to rangers fans.
Glad he is getting some kudos from the rest of ya'll smilies/smiley.gif
April 07, 2013
Votes: +0

TheZamboniGuy said:

TheZamboniGuy
... Derek Stepan really impress me this season, he pratically get the first center role and see a lot of PP time. He drive the rangers attack right now !

Nice post
April 07, 2013
Votes: +1
You must be logged in to post a comment. Please register if you do not have an account yet.

busy