|Geek of the Week: Dan Boyle||Tweet|
|Written by Terry Campkin|
|Saturday, 22 December 2012 11:44|
As frustrating and painful as it has been to watch matters develop in the lockout, my passion for hockey and for fantasy hockey remains unchanged. The timing has been particularly tough for me because the outlook for my team in my main keeper league is pretty decent for the coming season. I am one of three or four teams that have a legitimate shot to win this year, but I also have some aging stars so my window may start to close soon.
This week, I was struck with a combination of boredom and opportunism so I made a trade! Today I am going to write about how I came to the decision acquire this week’s Geek of the Week: Dan Boyle.
First, some background on our league:
The deal that I made was my 2013 first rounder for Dan Boyle. Ordinarily a player of Boyle’s caliber probably wouldn’t be available for a pick, but the opposing GM liked the deal because:
So now the fun part: Why did I want Boyle so badly? Let me show you how I ran the numbers in Fantasy Hockey Geek to decide that I need this guy on my team:
A quick run through FHG shows that Boyle was actually the 37th most valuable player in my entire keeper league last year! He was the 11th most valuable defenseman in a league filled with shrewd managers who understand the value of productive D and hoard them accordingly. If I had Boyle last year, he would have been my second most valuable defenseman and my 5th most valuable skater. Keep in mind that Boyle accomplished all of this in what could be considered a down year for him.
Boyle’s high value stems from a variety of factors:
The big question for Boyle comes down to whether or not he still has anything left to give. He is 36 years old and his point totals have decreased in each of the past two seasons. There are two counter points to this argument that really helped me to decide to make this deal:
To help understand what Boyle’s value could be next season, FHG offers a really great option that allows you to use Dobber’s player predictions for the basis of the rankings. When I run Dobber’s predictions through FHG with my league settings, it calculates Boyle as the 27th most valuable player in the league. Being able to see this information in this format made it incredibly easy for me to pull the trigger on this deal. Having Boyle on my team solidifies me as an early favorite in this league if there is a season this year and even if there isn’t, at least I have acquired a top end talent to solidify my keepers going forward. I may only get 2-3 years out of him but considering my team’s position it was well worth the price of a future draft pick.
Based on the above analysis, I would say that if there is a season this year then this deal is a homerun for me. Boyle will be incredibly valuable to my team and my first round pick is likely to be somewhere between 10 and 12 overall next year (Okposo, Cammalleri and Ryder were taken there this season). If this season indeed gets folded then I think that this deal will prove to be about even. The opposing GM will get a lottery 1st and a replacement for Boyle (off of his own squad) which is a pretty huge return for a 37 year old defenseman, although I likely will still end up with the most valuable player in the deal.
For those of you who are in 1 year leagues or keepers of different formats, Boyle has a ton to offer you as well. His average draft position is 69 and I can tell you that there aren’t many league formats out there where Boyle’s true value would be lower than that. Boyle also contributes to most key categories that my league doesn’t measure such as PIMs (57 last season) and blocked shots (137 last season).
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|Last Updated on Monday, 24 December 2012 17:03|