|Statistical Anomalies (Part One)||Tweet|
|Written by Ryan Ma|
|Thursday, 15 November 2012 10:42|
Season after season, there’s always a list of players who post some statistical anomalies. During the lockout, I’ve combed through the NHL databases to try to identify some of these anomalies and compile a list to help my fellow Dobberities out. Here’s my initial list of a couple of anomalies that I’ve found.
Curtis Glencross – Calgary Flames – Shooting Percentage
Glencross shot a ridiculous 23.6 percent last season, which is extraordinarily high compared to the 16.1 and 12.1 percent ratings that he posted during the last couple of seasons. If you you also take into account his 14.7 percent career shooting efficiency, you should expect a bit of a regression.
Jiri Hudler – Calgary Flames – Shooting Percentage
Hudler posted a 19.7 percent last season which is extraordinarily high compared to the 9.5 and 14.8 percent the previous two campaigns. His career shooting efficiency is just 13.7, so much like Glencross expect a bit of a dip this season.
Jordan Eberle – Edmonton Oilers – Shooting Percentage
Eberle shot 18.9 percent, which was tied with Nathan Horton for fifth overall in the entire league. Given that this is just the second year in the NHL, he’d be hard pressed to repeat that for a second consecutive season.
Martin Erat – Nashville Predators – Shooting Percentage
Erat also had a bit of an elevated shooting percentage last season, firing at 17.8 percent, which is a lot higher than the 11.4, 12.5 and 12.6 numbers that he’s posted during the last three years. His career average is also just 12.6 percent, which means that the five percent drop off would probably see him drop another two or three goals over the course of a season, so adjust accordingly.
Claude Giroux – Philadelphia Flyers – PPP
Despite averaging the sixth most power play time amongst all NHL forwards, Giroux led the league with 38 PPP, which is a sharp contrast to the 21 and 19 PPP that he posted during the last two seasons. A thing to keep in mind is that 22 of his 38 PPP (58 percent) came when lining up alongside Jaromir Jagr, while spending 43% of his overall PP time next to the Czech superstar. With Jagr leaving for greener pastures, Giroux might not be as efficient on the power-play as he was last campaign.
Patrik Elias – New Jersey Devils – PPP
Elias picked up 29 power-play points last season, which tied him with Ilya Kovalchuk for fifth in the league, despite averaging just 3:28 which was tied with Ryan Kesler for 46th in terms of power-play ice-time. With Zach Parise leaving for Minnesota and Elias not receiving top-tired PP ice-time, expect his PPP totals to take a hit.
Matt Moulson – New York Islanders – Home/Away Goal Splits
Moulson recorded 23 goals on the road compared to just 13 goals at home, which is a bit backwards, as generally speaking most players record better home numbers than they do on the road. Those numbers were the complete opposite to the numbers he posted in 2010-11, as he recorded 21 goals at home compared to just 10 on the road. It’ll be interesting to see which Moulson will show up this season?
Jason Pominville – Buffalo Sabres – Home/Away Point Splits
Pominville had interesting splits last season posting 46 points at home compared to just 27 points on the road. His splits have always been fairly close to 50/50, so expect those numbers to move towards the norm heading into the season, which might not be a good thing if it’s close to 30/30.
Valtteri Filppula – Detroit Red Wings - Home/Away Point Splits
Filppula posted 48 points at home compared to just 23 away from Joe Louis Arena. Those numbers closely reflected the splits that the Red Wings posted last season, when they averaged 3.46 goals in Detroit, compared to 2.37 away from home. If the offense at home slips expect Filppula’s offensive production to drop as well.
Max Pacioretty – Montreal Canadiens - Home/Away Point Splits
Pacioretty posted 43 points in Montreal compared to just 23 points away. Keep in mind, that Habs were saddled with plenty of injuries throughout last season with Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta and Andrei Markov all being sidelined with numerous injuries which gave Pacioretty some extra responsibilities throughout the season. With the team getting healthier this season, Pacioretty will probably experience a bit of a drop-off in offensive production this year, so adjust accordingly.
Detroit Red Wings – Home/Away Scoring Splits
The Red Wings recorded 142 goals in 41 home games compared to just 97 goals on the road, which is the highest goal total that Detroit has posted since 2008-09 season (156). Detroit has always been a great home team but expecting them to maintain such a high standard is asking for a lot.
Jonathan Toews – Chicago Blackhawks – Faceoff Efficiency
Toews has always been a great faceoff winner, as he’s posted 53.2, 54.7, 57.3, 56.7 and 59.4 faceoff winning percentages since he entered the league back in 2007-08. Since the lockout, there has been only one player that has posted a greater than 60 percent faceoff winning percentage while taking more than 1000 faceoffs who was Manny Malholtra. Toews could be the second if he keeps improving at the rate that he has been during the last few seasons.
Jarret Stoll – Los Angeles Kings – Home/Away Faceoff Efficiency
Stoll won 60 percent of his faceoffs (372 of 620) at home compared to just 49.7 percent on the road (290 of 584), which is very low compared to his 55.9 percent faceoff winning efficiency that he’s posted during the previous three campaigns. With more leagues adding more peripheral stats like faceoff wins to their league settings, Stoll is certainly someone who could improve plenty of fantasy teams who are looking for a boost in that department.
Nashville Predators – Power play efficiency
The Preds led the league in power play efficiency with the 21.6 percent rating last season, which is surprising considering they ranked 26th, 24th, 25th and 27th respectively during the last four seasons. During that span, they also scored only 15.5 percent of the time, which just highlights how out of the ordinary their rating was for last campaign, so expect that power play to regress if the season ever commences.
Winnipeg Jets – Home/Away power play efficiency
The Jets had very interesting home and away power play efficiency splits last season. They ranked second in the league operating at 22 percent at home, but were tied for second last on the road operating at just 12.7 percent. Generally speaking those numbers are much closer together for a typical team which is a factor to strongly consider. Expect the Jets power-play to regress a bit this season.
Colorado Avalanche – Home/Away power play efficiency
The Avs had the opposite effect, as they were tied with the Islanders for top spot in terms of road power play efficiency, but were forth last in terms of home power play efficiency. Generally speaking most teams are less efficient on the road than in front of their home crowd which is surprising to see the numbers that the Avs posted last season. With Paul Stastny, Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene and Co. the Avs should be much better on the PP this season than last.
Chicago Blackhawks – Team Hits
It’s pretty well known that there is a major discrepancy between NHL cities in terms of awarding hits. The Hawks were a team that greatly benefitted from the discrepancy as they posted 910 hits at home compared to just 590 on the road.
Calgary Flames – Team Hits
On the opposite end of the scale, you have the Flames who were docked quite a bit at home compared to the road. Calgary picked up just 515 hits at the Saddledome compared to 931 on the road. If you’re after some hitters, it might not be a bad idea to shy away from any Flames players. Also consider a player like Dennis Wideman who transitioned from the seventh ranked home hitting team to the last ranking team and how that would affect his fantasy value.
Los Angeles Kings – Times Shut Out
Despite winning the Stanley Cup last campaign, the Kings were actually shut out in 12.1 percent of their regular season contests (10 out of 82). Everyone’s heard of the phrase “defense wins championships.” and this has certainly proven the case once again, but it surely won’t make fantasy poolies happy if more teams take the “copycat” approach in the next couple of seasons.
Ryan Ma, formerly of the Wild West fame, checks in every second Thursday with Maaaasquito Bites.
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|Last Updated on Friday, 16 November 2012 15:25|