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Season after season, there’s always a list of players who post some statistical anomalies. During the lockout, I’ve combed through the NHL databases to try to identify some of these anomalies and compile a list to help my fellow Dobberities out. Here’s my initial list of a couple of anomalies that I’ve found.

 

Curtis Glencross – Calgary Flames – Shooting Percentage


Glencross shot a ridiculous 23.6 percent last season, which is extraordinarily high compared to the 16.1 and 12.1 percent ratings that he posted during the last couple of seasons. If you you also take into account his 14.7 percent career shooting efficiency, you should expect a bit of a regression.

 

Jiri Hudler – Calgary Flames – Shooting Percentage


Hudler posted a 19.7 percent last season which is extraordinarily high compared to the 9.5 and 14.8 percent the previous two campaigns. His career shooting efficiency is just 13.7, so much like Glencross expect a bit of a dip this season.   

 

Jordan Eberle – Edmonton Oilers – Shooting Percentage


Eberle shot 18.9 percent, which was tied with Nathan Horton for fifth overall in the entire league.  Given that this is just the second year in the NHL, he’d be hard pressed to repeat that for a second consecutive season.  

 

Martin Erat – Nashville Predators – Shooting Percentage


Erat also had a bit of an elevated shooting percentage last season, firing at 17.8 percent, which is a lot higher than the 11.4, 12.5 and 12.6 numbers that he’s posted during the last three years.  His career average is also just 12.6 percent, which means that the five percent drop off would probably see him drop another two or three goals over the course of a season, so adjust accordingly.  

 

Claude Giroux – Philadelphia Flyers – PPP


Despite averaging the sixth most power play time amongst all NHL forwards, Giroux led the league with 38 PPP, which is a sharp contrast to the 21 and 19 PPP that he posted during the last two seasons.  A thing to keep in mind is that 22 of his 38 PPP (58 percent) came when lining up alongside Jaromir Jagr, while spending 43% of his overall PP time next to the Czech superstar.  With Jagr leaving for greener pastures, Giroux might not be as efficient on the power-play as he was last campaign.

 

Patrik Elias – New Jersey Devils – PPP


Elias picked up 29 power-play points last season, which tied him with Ilya Kovalchuk for fifth in the league, despite averaging just 3:28 which was tied with Ryan Kesler for 46th in terms of power-play ice-time. With Zach Parise leaving for Minnesota and Elias not receiving top-tired PP ice-time, expect his PPP totals to take a hit.

 

Matt Moulson – New York Islanders – Home/Away Goal Splits


Moulson recorded 23 goals on the road compared to just 13 goals at home, which is a bit backwards, as generally speaking most players record better home numbers than they do on the road. Those numbers were the complete opposite to the numbers he posted in 2010-11, as he recorded 21 goals at home compared to just 10 on the road. It’ll be interesting to see which Moulson will show up this season?

 

Jason Pominville – Buffalo Sabres – Home/Away Point Splits


Pominville had interesting splits last season posting 46 points at home compared to just 27 points on the road. His splits have always been fairly close to 50/50, so expect those numbers to move towards the norm heading into the season, which might not be a good thing if it’s close to 30/30. 

 

Valtteri Filppula – Detroit Red Wings - Home/Away Point Splits


Filppula posted 48 points at home compared to just 23 away from Joe Louis Arena. Those numbers closely reflected the splits that the Red Wings posted last season, when they averaged 3.46 goals in Detroit, compared to 2.37 away from home. If the offense at home slips expect Filppula’s offensive production to drop as well.

 

Max Pacioretty – Montreal Canadiens - Home/Away Point Splits


Pacioretty posted 43 points in Montreal compared to just 23 points away. Keep in mind, that Habs were saddled with plenty of injuries throughout last season with Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta and Andrei Markov all being sidelined with numerous injuries which gave Pacioretty some extra responsibilities throughout the season. With the team getting healthier this season, Pacioretty will probably experience a bit of a drop-off in offensive production this year, so adjust accordingly.

 

Detroit Red Wings – Home/Away Scoring Splits


The Red Wings recorded 142 goals in 41 home games compared to just 97 goals on the road, which is the highest goal total that Detroit has posted since 2008-09 season (156). Detroit has always been a great home team but expecting them to maintain such a high standard is asking for a lot.

 

Jonathan Toews – Chicago Blackhawks – Faceoff Efficiency


Toews has always been a great faceoff winner, as he’s posted 53.2, 54.7, 57.3, 56.7 and 59.4 faceoff winning percentages since he entered the league back in 2007-08. Since the lockout, there has been only one player that has posted a greater than 60 percent faceoff winning percentage while taking more than 1000 faceoffs who was Manny Malholtra. Toews could be the second if he keeps improving at the rate that he has been during the last few seasons.

 

Jarret Stoll – Los Angeles Kings – Home/Away Faceoff Efficiency


Stoll won 60 percent of his faceoffs (372 of 620) at home compared to just 49.7 percent on the road (290 of 584), which is very low compared to his 55.9 percent faceoff winning efficiency that he’s posted during the previous three campaigns. With more leagues adding more peripheral stats like faceoff wins to their league settings, Stoll is certainly someone who could improve plenty of fantasy teams who are looking for a boost in that department.   

 

Nashville Predators – Power play efficiency


The Preds led the league in power play efficiency with the 21.6 percent rating last season, which is surprising considering they ranked 26th, 24th, 25th and 27th respectively during the last four seasons. During that span, they also scored only 15.5 percent of the time, which just highlights how out of the ordinary their rating was for last campaign, so expect that power play to regress if the season ever commences.

 

Winnipeg Jets – Home/Away power play efficiency


The Jets had very interesting home and away power play efficiency splits last season. They ranked second in the league operating at 22 percent at home, but were tied for second last on the road operating at just 12.7 percent. Generally speaking those numbers are much closer together for a typical team which is a factor to strongly consider. Expect the Jets power-play to regress a bit this season.

 

Colorado Avalanche – Home/Away power play efficiency


The Avs had the opposite effect, as they were tied with the Islanders for top spot in terms of road power play efficiency, but were forth last in terms of home power play efficiency. Generally speaking most teams are less efficient on the road than in front of their home crowd which is surprising to see the numbers that the Avs posted last season. With Paul Stastny, Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene and Co. the Avs should be much better on the PP this season than last.

 

Chicago Blackhawks – Team Hits


It’s pretty well known that there is a major discrepancy between NHL cities in terms of awarding hits. The Hawks were a team that greatly benefitted from the discrepancy as they posted 910 hits at home compared to just 590 on the road.

 

Calgary Flames – Team Hits


On the opposite end of the scale, you have the Flames who were docked quite a bit at home compared to the road. Calgary picked up just 515 hits at the Saddledome compared to 931 on the road. If you’re after some hitters, it might not be a bad idea to shy away from any Flames players. Also consider a player like Dennis Wideman who transitioned from the seventh ranked home hitting team to the last ranking team and how that would affect his fantasy value.  

 

Los Angeles Kings – Times Shut Out


Despite winning the Stanley Cup last campaign, the Kings were actually shut out in 12.1 percent of their regular season contests (10 out of 82). Everyone’s heard of the phrase “defense wins championships.” and this has certainly proven the case once again, but it surely won’t make fantasy poolies happy if more teams take the “copycat” approach in the next couple of seasons.

 

Ryan Ma, formerly of the Wild West fame, checks in every second Thursday with Maaaasquito Bites.

    

Question or comments are always greatly welcomed below.

 

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Comments (13)add comment

Farley said:

Farley
... Yeah Jagr has a ton of experience but I think that both Giroux and Voracek have room to grow yet and overall there won't be much of a drop. Will he be #1 in PPP production again, the odds are against it but does he have as good of a shot as he had last year, yeah I think so. I think that Giroux is or will be a consistent top 3 to top 5 player for years. I guess it comes down to whether or not you think Giroux's production is reliant mostly on the people around him or if he creates opportunities for himself and his linemates.
November 18, 2012
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
Jagr I dunno about the age factor... but it's the hockey IQ that's swayed me... Jagr has the smarts to know when and where his team mates are and to adapt. Voracek I haven't seen that aspect from him yet.

I guess it depends on whether you rae a glass half full or half empty type of guy. Would you want to head into the season expecting Voracek to 100% fill the shoes of Jagr, or are you willing to give it some leeway and expect that he might fill 75% of Jagr...

I guess my question to you is do you reckon Giroux with Voracek instead of Jagr will maintain number 1 PPP production? Ahead of Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos?

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying knock Giroux down 10 spots... I'm just saying right now he's the 3rd ranked forward after Malkin, Stamkos and ahead of Crosby, would you consider taking him ahead of Malkin, Stamkos and Crosby given the uncertainty with Jagr leaving?
November 17, 2012
Votes: +0

Farley said:

Farley
... Interesting oddities but do you really think that an aged Jagr is that much better than a rising Voracek? I understand that his experience helps the PP but will it be that significant of a drop. I have to ask since I have seen this Jagr effect in other articles. Isn't it equally likely that Voracek and Giroux both pick up their game a bit this year and at the least cover the loss of Jagr.
November 16, 2012
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
Kings Yeah I debated about that one for a few hours whether to stick it in or not... Yeah this column was supposed to be about "anomalies" (stats that shouldn't happen ever again), but I thought it was something interesting to note that the Kings had that many SO, I didn't think it was a fact that very many people knew about...

With this day and age of Kings/Blues/Bos defense first hockey, I'm wondering if it's going to be a league wide trend like back in the 90s where defense ruled the roost where the league average was under 5 goals a game...

Probably didn't have much to relate to this article, just thought I'd chuck it as a tidbit...
November 16, 2012
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
Eberle I'm not sold yet, maybe another year of repeated production, but after 1 year where he shot 18.9% I'm not convinced, especially when his rookie year was just 11.4%...

One of the big things is when a player shoots > 15%, they're already way above the norm, I don't have the numbers, but I would hypothesize that the average NHLer is probably around the 7-8% mark... So when a sophomore reels off 18.9% I'm blown away.

There are very few pure snipers in the game, Stamkos is probably the purest sniper in the game. So I would expect him to be 15%+ each and every season,David Jones is another that has impressed me, but he doesn't take a lot of shots. David Perron is a bubble for me, sometimes he wows me sometimes I'm thinking why the hell did you take that shot for? Toews is another sniper as well, but he's like Jones where he doesn't take a lot of SOG, but he's improving...

Eberle did show some signs, but I'm not convinced that he's at a Stamkos level yet...

But time will tell.
November 16, 2012
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
Road totals To each their own...

But with everything you still kind of need to acknowledge it, whether you believe in it is a separate problem.

For someone like Pominville, who was absolutely ridiculous at home last season, I'd head into the season expecting a bit of a regression, he posted a 1.12 point-per-game rate at home, which is ridiculous... That was essentially on par with Neal, Tavares, Kessel, Kovalchuk and Hossa. Because of his inflated home totals he posted 73 points... If those numbers regress back to his "average" he's looking at a regression of probably 10-15 points. As most draft lists place an extra emphasis on past season production, his value will be inflated at the draft table.

So that's how I would use home/away splits to guide my opinion.
November 16, 2012
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
Gomez People always knock Gomez, but it's unfounded.

The thing is offensively he is over-rated, but it's the intangibles that he brings that give him much more "real-life value" than his offensive production and because of those factors he'll continue to garner ice-time for those factors that he brings.

You have to keep in mind that Gomez still averaged 2:20 on the PP when he did suit up, so it's not like he's not getting any PP time at all... So does that mean less PP time for MacPac? Yes it does, because if Gomez wasn't there, MaxPac would be getting 4+ minutes game instead of 3:10... so Gomez does directly influence how much PP time MacPac gets.

Also keep in mind that it's a combination of all 3 Gomez, Gionta and Markov (and you can probably throw in Galchenyuk too) that would have a negative effect on Cole, Desharnais and MaxPac, it's not just Gomez vs. Max Pac...

The Habs' production last season was a very top-heavy, Desharnias, Cole and MaxPac contributed 35.8% of the Habs' total points... What I'm forecasting is that with Gomez, Gionta, Markov, Galchenyuk and Bourque all entering back into the fray, that percentage will drop, which will probably affect MaxPac's offensive production.
November 16, 2012
Votes: -1

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
Elias Yeah it's the efficiency that I think will take a hit... 2 years ago when Parise was out with his knee injury, the Devils operated at 14.4%, it shot up to 17.2% last season, small changes but it could add to a difference.

You also have to take into account he was tied for 5th for PPP production, which is pretty high for his standard. So there's really only down for him to go. There might be more ice-time to go round, but it might be less efficient.
November 16, 2012
Votes: +0

Ryan Ma said:

Maaaasquito
Giroux It's not the numbers that I'm entirely concerned with, for me its the chemistry... With Jagr there, he was kinda the stabilizing factor. He provided the experience, and calmness, the thing is who's the replacement? Read? Voracek? Simmonds? Briere, Hartnell? That's what I'm a bit wary of.

Don't get me wrong he's still part of the elite, still definitely first round material, but I wouldn't take him over a Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos at the moment.

Another big thing is that his 38 PPP was top of the table, so he essentially rules the roost. So where does he go from here? Can he maintain that spot? What will be need to realistically produce in order to justify his current draft position? Perry had 31 PPP 2 seasons ago, it slipped to 23 last season. I'm not saying Giroux is Perry, but we've seen a first round draft pick slip massively in value from 1 season to the next, and Giroux isn't immune to that happening to him IMO.
November 16, 2012
Votes: +0

RizzeeDizzee said:

RizzeeDizzee
... Agree as well - really solid piece. What's great is there's something relevant to most everyone, and at least a couple of surprises that even folks who follows these players and teams closely might not have realized.

You support your points really well, except for PPP. Giroux's PPP per game average of .41 last year is in line with what he did in 2009-10 when he posted 47 points with 21 coming on the PP (.44 per game). It looks more like what he did in 2010-11 (when he had 76 points with only 21 on the PP) was the anomaly. And Elias has done well on the PP before, averaging about .3 power play points per game over the past 5 seasons (including one season where he had 31 in 77 games), so 29 in 81 games last year (.35 per game) is not that much of a departure from the norm.

I also agree with the other commenter about Pacioretty - I'm not buying all the talk about his great stats last season being owed, at least in part, to Gomez and Gionta missing games. Yes, maybe their being out of the lineup opened the door for Pacioretty, but their return to health should be a non-factor since clearly Pacioretty has arrived and will not see his ice time or spot with Cole and Desharnais be threatened.

I'm also not sure what you meant in terms of the Kings - the column is about anomalies that are not likely to happen again, so are you saying that the Kings won't be shut out as often again this season, or that if they are they won't be as successful? The former is clearly of relevance to poolies, less so the latter.
November 16, 2012
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
Very good. Probably one of the few things we disagree on is home/road splits. As player "point" totals go, I don't feel it's something to put much stock into.

Of note, something like ROAD FOW% can vary, because the road center is forced to be set for his faceoff prior to the home center. And a center will tell you that makes a difference. If the officials are told to crack-down on something small (like this) it could have a negative impact on one-side.

The one player who could repeat his anomaly is... Eberle. I've heard people mention his shooting percentage several times, so I made a point to go to NHL.com and watch Eberle videos of all his goals. Kid is a sniper! AND, all of Hall/RNH/Yakupov are LH, so he's the only RH stick on that EDM PP, so he sets up to the goalie's right. Most people (& goalies, I assume) are RH. I think only 1/7 people are lefties. This means that most goalies have their blocker-side as the same-side as where Eberle is positioned on the PP.

Head on over to NHL.com, type in Eberle, click, go to videos.
Watch those goals.
Especially the goal on 03/30 against LA (mid-high inside right post) and 03/05 against ANA (shelf, no prayer for goalie), 01/05 against STL (mid-high inside right post), 12/09 against COL (shelf, no prayer). I mean... these goalies can't do anything against that. Eberle is a pre-programmed robot for shooting on the PP and he already has an "office".

I'm not arguing that 19% is high... but I think he'll be over 15% constantly and I think there will be a few 20% seasons in his career.

Overall, another gem!
November 16, 2012
Votes: +1

Billy_the_Phil said:

Billy_the_Phil
... Good article.
But there are 2 points that sounds weird to me :

1:"With Zach Parise leaving for Minnesota and Elias not receiving top-tired PP ice-time, expect his PPP totals to take a hit."
I thought that with Parise out of town would mean more PP ice-time for Elias no ? Unless your saying that the whole NJ PP will be less effective.

2:"with Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta and Andrei Markov all being sidelined with numerous injuries which gave Pacioretty some extra responsibilities throughout the season. With the team getting healthier this season..." Don't get me started with Gomez, come on ! I can't believe that Gomez being healty means less PP ice-time or offencive zone starts for Max Pac. Plus Markov back should give a boost to Mtl's PP, well I hope as a Habs fan.

Thans for the good read and keep the good job.


November 16, 2012
Votes: +1

T-Camp said:

TBone076
Giroux Love the article. Red flags (statistical anomolies) like these are extremely important to consider going into a new season. I think every single one of these points are spot on and I will keep the advice in mind for sure!

The only one I disagree on is Giroux. I think his PPP spike was more related to his breakout season and his increased responsibilities post Richards-Carter than it was related to Jagr.

Giroux played 9 games without Jagr last season and scored 6PPP. That's .66 PPP per game. His average WITH Jagr was .47PPP per game. Granted it is a small sample size without Jagr, but he did show an ability to produce at an elite PPP clip without Jagr.

His 38PPPs are also a direct result of his overall increase in production. 40% of his points came on the PP last season. In the prior 2 seasons combined, 32% of his points came on the PP. As a portion of total points, this isn't that big of a jump and when you consider that he is now "the man" on the top PP, it is easily explainable and I would argue repeatable. I personally wouldn't expect much regression from Giroux in PPP next year.

Great stuff here. As a MaxPac owner, I wish I could disagre with that one as well - but I don't think I can. Solid points on all of these players/teams. Considerations such as the impact of a trade to Wideman's hit output are the types of things that seperate good managers from great ones. Love it.
November 16, 2012
Votes: +0
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