price

 

It's come down to this. After two months of voting, the two goalies set to do battle to become the fourth best fantasy goalie (after Jonathan Quick, Henrik Lundqvist and Pekka Rinne) are...

 

#2 Carey Price over #1 Marc-Andre Fleury – 43 votes to 27 votes.

I’ve got to admit, I’m a bit puzzled by this result. I think most would agree that Price is a better goaltender than Fleury but that’s not all that factors into fantasy hockey decisions. With goaltenders the team you play for is always going to be a really big chunk of the puzzle. So let’s do a quick exercise:

Last season on one of the league’s worst teams Price gave you 26 Wins, a 2.43 GAA, a .916 Save% and four shutouts. If we assume that he is one of the absolute best goalies in the league AND that Montreal cannot be worse than they were last season then Price cannot possibly put up worse stats than those.

Fleury, on the other hand, played for one of the league’s best teams last season and gave you 42 wins, a 2.36 GAA, a .913 Save% and three shutouts. Again, if we make the assumption that Fleury is mediocre at best AND that Pittsburgh cannot possibly be better than they were last season then Fleury cannot do any better.

After all those assumptions it is still very close. The fact is that Fleury is talented and the team in front of him is unreasonably talented. Has everyone forgotten that he will have Crosby in front of him next season too? Has everyone been tainted by his dismal playoff performance? Has anyone heard of a small sample size? The Penguins won’t be playing the Flyers more than four times this season. The rest of the games he should actually play well.

You can argue that there is more upside with taking Price – that he is a goalie capable of stealing games and that if he can string enough of those games together he can steal you a great fantasy season but let’s look at what he did in his best season so far:

Price’s career best numbers 38 wins, 2.35 GAA, .923 Save% and eight shutouts. Only the shutouts give Price an advantage over what Fleury will give you. Are you really going to gamble your season on a goalie’s ability to get shutouts when it’s one of the more random acts in sports? And isn’t it possible that Price’s career high of eight shutouts from that season was a bit of a sample size fluke? Is Price really better at stealing games and shutting teams out than Fleury? I admit he’s better but significantly so? I don’t think so.

Price has 16 shutouts in 263 starts good for a shutout rate of 6.1%. Fleury, meanwhile, has 22 shutouts in 416 career starts good for a shutout rate of 5.3%. Price may be better but it’s not significant. The difference in their career shutout rate factored over an entire season’s worth of starts (I said 65) is worth about 0.5 shutouts so there’s hardly an advantage to be had although that doesn’t factor in random chance.

We know Fleury should give you more wins and we know that the GAA and Save% stats are going to be fairly close given the nature of the teams these two play for. Is half a shutout really worth it to go for Price?

But in all fairness you have to go with your gut and if your gut tells you that Fleury stinks while Price is the real deal, it is pretty hard to argue with that.

#1 Ryan Miller over #2 Cam Ward – 38 votes to 34 votes.

This one was has to go down as one of the tightest matchups in Cage Match Tournament history. There simply wasn’t much separating these two and I don’t have much of an argument to make either way. I will say that Miller’s status as a former Greatest Goaltender Alive and Playing (G-GAP for short) made him a nostalgia pick for some people. Will Miller ever hit those heights again? I don’t know but it seems enough people were willing to bet on it.

On the flip side, it’s also possible that Ward lost a few votes by perpetually existing on the “next big thing” list. Pretty well since he won the Cup in ’06, Ward has been pegged as a franchise goaltender and one of the next guys to break out. Well now it is 2012 and it still hasn’t happened, yet every year we find a reason to get worked up about it. This year it’s the uniting of the brothers Staal as well as the addition of Alex Semin. I just wonder if some people don’t hold some resentment towards Ward for having yet to fulfill all that promise.

 

54

 

And so just two remain in our quest to find the fourth best goaltender in fantasy hockey this season. It’s Ryan Miller vs. Carey Price in a battle of Northeast Division foes.

Remember to cast your votes based on a one year league with Wins, Goals Against Average, Save Percentage and Shutouts as categories. Now follow the link provided to cast your vote and make your voice heard!


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aleco83 said:

aleco83
@ mounD Wins is really just the tip of the iceberg because the deterioration in Wins will not result from the Pens losing more but because he is not getting as many starts. So even if his peripherals remain on par with Price, the latter will have a major advantange in cumulative stats likes saves and mins. Not to mention, for weekly roster management and meeting GGP minimums guys like price are GOLD! For those reasons I also prefer Ward over Miller, Ward will get guaranteed starts, a HORSE, while Miller is being challenged by an up and coming Enroth.
November 07, 2012
Votes: +0

mounD said:

mounD
@ Aleco I would be inclined to agree with you IF Price and MAF were equal assets at this point. However, MAF is a superior asset who "might" deteriorate a small portion, and therefore is still "likely" the better option. Your saw risky just proved my argument with your evidence. :-)
November 07, 2012
Votes: +0

aleco83 said:

aleco83
managing risk I disagree completely, if you are managing risk in a one year league - particularlry H2H formats the situation in Pitts is less than ideal. The statement made by the coaching staff by bringing Vokoun in is quite strong - they too are managing risk because they are unsure of the quality their asset (MAF) will deliver. Comparitively, MTL is quite comfortable rolling out Price with Budaj as backup which states that they are willing to put all the chips in on one goalie with no viable contingency plan. To translate that into fantasy, risk is minimilized by selecting Price because not only does he have similar peripheral stats but the one stat that MAF does have an edge over, Wins, is the one that will be most at risk of deteriorating. That being said, you know what you will get with Price while MAF at the moment is clouded by too much uncertainty.
November 07, 2012
Votes: +0

mounD said:

mounD
One year league voting Remember people, this voting is based on one-year leagues with standard categories. Don't let "potential" and "the future" sway your arguments.

I feel this is what happened with Carey Price. It seems like he was selected (undeservingly) because people like his raw skills more than MAF. Thats not what we're determining here. We're pegging one year value. And in this case, the Dobber community is dead wrong.
November 07, 2012
Votes: +1

mounD said:

mounD
MAF Pretty ridiculous that people put so much stock in his bad playoff. This same vote last year would have been a landslide in Fleury's favor, and nothing has really changed. You all oughtta be ashamed of yourselves.

I'd be willing to make just about any non-monetary wager that MAF has a better fantasy season than Price in 2012-13. I doubt it would even be close.

As for Vokoun, his presence is overstated. When MAF was establishing himself as a top goalie, he was starting in the 60-65 game range; with Vokoun in town, MAF's win totals may take a slight hit, but his peripherals should be just as strong if not stronger.

Bottom line: MAF > Price
November 07, 2012
Votes: +1

wally1 said:

wally1
... I think a point you may not have considered with Fleury is that Vokoun is now on the scene. I think because of that, Fleury will not have as many starts which shifts the advantage towards Price who should dominate most starts for Montreal. But I agree with you, that the race is very close.
November 07, 2012
Votes: +0
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