Lockout Update: Day 37: There is still a lockout.

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Fantasy Guide - Fully updated as of October 10, will be updated this week with some CBA updates, injury updates and don't forget that when the season is announced, I will re-jig the projections from Abdelkader through to Zubrus.

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As crushing as the news was on Thursday - and let's face it, the news Thursday was pretty much the "worst case" scenario that I had imagined - after several days to reflect, I can take away some positives. Both sides agree on a 50-50 deal. And both sides are still talking - via a phone call on Saturday. But last lockout, a meeting like the one Thursday would have resulted in six weeks of zero discussion.

So yes, some positives. They just need to answer a) what is the revenue that is 50-50? And b) how quickly will they get there? Doesn't seem like a wide chasm to cross. It just seems like two very stubborn, prideful leaders. But again, since they are speaking, perhaps Fehr and Bettman are not as prideful and stubborn as we think.

Bottom line - I had been starting to crumble last week and move off of my November 28 start date to a later date. But then the NHL offer came through and I figured November 2 was looking likely. Then the crushing "meeting" Thursday had me believing mid-December at best. But a few days of reflection, to calm down, and I'm back where I started. I'll stick to the November 28 date. The date I had in my head as early as the spring.

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One thing that really bothers me is the lack of maturity. You set up a meeting that involves flying more than a few people from around North America into Toronto, and you stop the meeting after 15 minutes? You pack up your briefcase and storm out? Did you slam the door and yell "I hate you!" too? Honestly, even if you've head the proposal before, give them a chance to explain, and discuss each of your objections. If you storm out without listening, then you're a 14-year-old. Or Sookie Stackhouse. Grow up, you're 50-year-old men for gawd's sake.

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The Hockey Writers gives you a list of 10 Sharks prospects to watch in the year ahead, including Tomas Hertl and Matt Nieto. For more prospects info, visit DobberProspects. In fact, here is our profile on Hertl, and here is our profile on Nieto.

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I wouldn't give Darryl Katz a single penny beyond what was agreed. And I wouldn't even meet with him for further negotiation on the matter. It's a sweet deal, one he won't get anywhere else. In fact, I'd start building a quality NHL arena. When it's complete, I'd offer Katz a great rate to rent the building for games.

I'm just kidding (for those Oilers fans who are already scrolling down to the comments to explain my factual mistakes, or why X and Y can or cannot happen). The truth is, I don't care about these negotiations, the Oilers are going nowhere. But I would hate to see the billionaire get a deal that's any sweeter than the one he's getting.

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I bet you, 10 years from now, Sidney Crosby and Claude Giroux are teammates. And they'll be best buds. Hockey is strange that way.

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An interesting, but long, read at Deadspin - remember when Bain Capital wanted to buy the entire NHL for $3.5 billion?

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I love this Japer's Rink post - he analyzes the Scott Stevens signing by St. Louis. Washington was compensated by five first-round draft picks. Through various trades since, those five first rounders are still giving the Caps value. At this point, Mike Ribeiro, Jeff Schultz and Filip Forsberg are direct results of that compensation. Fantastic.

This is why I track such things in my fantasy league - a draft pick  was traded in 2002, I fill in the player who ended up being picked.

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Mikhail Grigorenko is off to a ridiculous pace in the QMJHL. With 23 points in 11 games, leading all Q players in points-per-game. I think the Sabres find room for this guy this season.

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Jonathan Huberdeau, a Calder contender in the year ahead, has 18 points in 13 QMJHL games.

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More prospect talk over at DobberProspects - Rich Dillon posted these ramblings over there yesterday.

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Last week I tweeted that Roberto Luongo shouldn't garner more than Tyler Bozak and a 2nd round pick in a trade. As far as value is concerned, I think Luongo is worth far more - not Jake Gardiner, Matt Frattin, Tyler Bozak and a 1st…but close to it. But at the long-term contract that he has, I think it's a matter of supply vs. demand. Right now, under current CBA rules, if Luongo were waived, he would be surprised to see 22 or 25 teams just pass on him. Right off the bat, approximately (I'll say) 24 teams would shy away. Between the contract length, and already being set in goal, these teams would have no interest in him for free. Of the six teams who remain, two of them would only take him because he's free. This leaves four teams willing to actually cough up assets for Luongo. So what's the value of saving the Canucks from being tied down for another 10 years? That has a TON of value. In my books, if I'm Mike Gillis, I look at being rescued from salary cap problems in 2019 (or 2020, or 2021) as a better asset coming my way than a first-round pick.

Just look at the precedents. The Predators gave up a top defenseman prospect in Cody Franson, just to get out from under two years of paying $3.5 million to a player who wasn't (they felt) going to help the team anymore. And since they took on Brett Lebda's million bucks back, it wasn't even for two full years. It was for a season and a half of salary, they gave up Franson. Ignoring Franson's performance last year and just looking at this the way his status as a prospect was at the time. Just for 1.5 years of mediocre salary getting off the books.

So what's the value of three years? Assuming Luongo is useful for seven.

Let's give the trade, ignoring salary, a value. Frattin, Gardiner, Bozak and a first is too much. But downgrade Gardiner and perhaps you have something. Maybe Jesse Blacker? That may be slightly too little, but let's take that as the equal trade - Luongo for Frattin, Blacker, Bozak and a first. Now we need to remove the value of three years worth of useless contract. We've already established, if we're Brian Burke, that 1.5 years is worth a top d-man prospect. So scratch out Blacker. Now let's scratch out the first and make it a second. That should cover two years of the three. All I'm saying now is Frattin has to be removed to finish off the balance. Did I remove too much? Well, since my only competition is Chicago (not in a comfortable cap position) and Florida (doesn't really want or need Luongo), then I'm holding firm on Bozak and a second.

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I had Luongo for Toronto several months ago. In fact, if I opened a Twitter account and called it @hhockeyinssiderr I would have tweeted it, and soon I'd get to claim credit for it, gaining me 100,000 followers! One of these days I'm going to do that - start a rumor twitter account (anonymous) and show you how logic and paying close attention to the pulse of NHL hockey can make you one of the better "insiders" on the internet. As soon as I feel like wasting time on something like that, you'll see…

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Those wondering about Florida prospect Rocco Grimaldi - he underwent knee surgery way back in January and hadn't been on the ice for months. He's back for North Dakota now, and after lighting it up during the exhibition games (with linemate Danny Kristo), he has a point in each of the first two games. Grimaldi has tremendous upside, but you're looking at a Nathan Gerbe kind of wait on him.

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 Writing opportunities - two of them - both involve prospects. I need help for hockey prospects, over at DobberProspects, and I need a prospects guy for DobberBaseball. Details here. And I'll be honest with you - I'm 100 times more desperate for the baseball help.

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And by the way - the DobberBaseball Fantasy Prospects Report will be out in three weeks. And to promote it, I am giving away last year's. Free. Pick it up, read it, bask in its awesomeness, then buy this year's.

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Ilya Bryzgalov is 1-3 in the KHL. I have to say, contract or not - I'd be scared to own him in a keeper league. And I'm sorry to those of you who own him and are pissed off that I proclaimed something like this for your entire league to see. But he scares me. The Flyers are awesome - so getting 30 wins should be safe. But his numbers look like they'll be terrible again, and I'm actually thinking that a healthy Michael Leighton could be a short-term threat. Bryzgalov, on this team, should be a 40-win goalie easily - but it's not working out that way. Not by a long shot.

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Some interesting names dot the AHL scoring leaders:

1

Marcus Foligno

Rochester

5

5

3

8

2

Cory Conacher

Syracuse

4

3

5

8

3

Tyler Johnson

Syracuse

4

4

3

7

4

Kris Newbury

Connecticut

4

3

4

7

5

T.J. Brennan

Rochester

5

3

4

7

6

Mikael Granlund

Houston

4

2

5

7

7

Ben Walter

Abbotsford

4

2

5

7

8

Cody Hodgson

Rochester

5

0

7

7

9

Chris Conner

Portland

3

4

2

6

10

Justin Schultz

Oklahoma

4

4

2

6

11

Sven Baertschi

Abbotsford

4

3

3

6

12

Kyle Jean

Connecticut

4

3

3

6

13

Jon DiSalvatore

Hershey

3

2

4

6

14

Jonathan Audy-Marchessault

Springfield

4

2

4

6

15

Kyle Palmieri

Norfolk

4

2

4

6

16

Jeff Taffe

Hershey

3

1

5

6

17

Sami Vatanen

Norfolk

4

1

5

6

18

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Portland

3

3

2

5

19

Nino Niederreiter

Bridgeport

3

3

2

5

20

Tyson Barrie

Lake

4

3

2

5

Notably - great to see Schultz acclimate to the pro game so quickly. This lockout is great for him, no question. Being rushed into the NHL may have done harm. And Bärtschi, Niederreiter and OEL are all benefiting from the added development time.

Don't get me started on Conacher. Love his career progression chart.

Foligno had a four-point game on the weekend, so take his inflated number with a grain of salt.

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Gustav Nyquist had two goals yesterday for Grand Rapids, plus the shootout winner. Yeah, he's ready - and the longer this lockout lasts, the greater the chance of an impact on the Red Wings.

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Caught this on Puck Daddy, but believe it should be shared and watched as much as possible. This is reality. The billionaires and millionaires have lost their grasp of that.


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Comments (5)add comment

jacques oeuf said:

hammer2003
Conacher Seems like few people take Conacher seriously as having legit NHL potential due to size/undrafted. He has nothing left to prove in the AHL and apparently tore up Lightning camp last year. Could he have a fantasy impact this year or whenever the next season is?
October 22, 2012
Votes: +0

shingy said:

shingy
Sick of Sookies
I like that you're sticking with your original date. Good show. Why not, nobody else has any better ideas anyway.

The sight of Daryl "Kantz" stop asking for money makes my stomach turn. Such a d!ck.

Owning Bryzgalov in a keeper....(although there is worse) no thanks. Leighton could easily pose a short term threat if Bryz doesn't get his head straight.

I don't think comparing Rinne and Bryz here really applies. Bryz sucked last year while Rinne was a Vezina finalist. It might be a small KHL sample size but it's obviously deeper than that going back to last year.
And Bob? He was a sophomore, hard to rely on his results to prove Brzy was much better. Hey, maybe Bob played the second game of a number of B2B's during season, giving him a tire team to play behind, not really sure, not really the point.
Point is, right now, to most fantasy owners, Bryzgalov s a much bigger risk to own than anyone would have thought. Selling low? I don't think anyone would recommend that.

All Dobber said was that he'd be scared as an owner of Bryzgalov, you're not?
It would have been awesome to see Vokoun go to Philly.

Thanks for the Bain Capital link. Great read. I had no idea they made an attempt to buy the entire league.
Great quote from the article..."they're going to make decisions that aren't in the best interests of the sport's future."
No kidding. The video above was sad enough as it is, I'd hate to think how sad things could be if Bain owned league after the last lockout. The new tradition would be profit and profit alone.

Just search google for "Bain Capital sued". There is pretty much a new lawsuit filed against them every month covering all types of abuses. Act first, settle later.

PS. Your ramblings have been top notch lately. Thanks.


October 22, 2012
Votes: +1

Dobber said:

Dobber
... Pengwin - Rinne's numbers are great, what's the problem? Sparkling SP and GAA. Bryz has shown terrible numbers in three different leagues in the past year:
1. NHL
2. NHL playoffs
3. KHL

Rinne has shown great numbers in three different leagues in the past year:
1. NHL
2. NHL playoffs
3. KHL

Your point may be valid, but based on your argument I'm not seeing it. Bryzgalov scares me. If he doesn't scare you, then draft him in the first round
And yes, if he was doing great in the KHL then I would feel much safer about drafting him early.

And I've never had Bobrovsky in my Top 10 before, you have me confused with someone else. And sharing that misinformation scares me. Oy.

October 22, 2012
Votes: +0

cdubb said:

cdubb
@hhockeyinssiderr If you do use that twitter account you may soon find yourself threatened by Brian Burke as what happened with Liverpool FC

http://duncanjenkins.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/such-little-thing-makes-such-big.html
October 22, 2012 | url
Votes: +0

Pengwin7 said:

Pengwin7
...and... But [Bryzgalov's] numbers look like they'll be terrible again.

Pekka Rinne is 3-4 with a .912 SV% & 2.56 GAA.
So?

Goaltending statistics aren't purely self-based, independent statistics.
The team in front of a goalie plays a large part in the goalie's performance.
Specifically, goalies need a lot of time to learn to read the way their own defensemen move in front of them and the type of shots/opportunities a defender will allow. Most goalies struggle in their first year on a new team mostly because they have not learned the ebb & flow of the defensemen playing in front of them.

It is no different for Rinne & Bryzgalov in the KHL.
Citing any goalie's success/failure in a minimal sample size of time playing in a completely new league or on a completely new team is just plain foolish. Fantasy owners that sell low on Bryzgalov after one rough season in Philly are making a bigger mistake than keeping him.

Philly was also playing with a patchwork of defensemen last year.
As an apples-to-apples comparison, Bob could only pull of a 3.02GAA & 0.899SV% last year playing on the same team as Bryz (2.48GAA & 0.909SV%). And yet... Bob... you remember Bob... you had Bob as #3 on your Top Goalie list a smidge over a year ago.

What happened there?
You want terrible numbers... Bob had terrible numbers.

Thumbs down on this one.
October 22, 2012
Votes: -1
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