Lockout Update: Day 32 - There is still a lockout…but now there's hope…

*

Fantasy Guide - Fully updated as of October 10, including the Draft List - and when a season is announced I will re-jig the projections - all 600 of them.

*

Some fairly promising news in yesterday's ramblings was followed up in an awful hurry by very good news. The NHL gave the offer that they probably already had drawn up back in July, but had to play the childish negotiating game to ensure the best chance of success at getting it. I'm sure you've heard most of the deets, but I'll go through the key points anyway. Afterwards, I'll go over some fantasy implications.

1. Revenue to be split 50-50 throughout the proposed contract

2. Contract is to run at least six years (Donald Fehr said in his press conference "I think" six years)

3. Entry Level Contracts run two years, down from three. This is to ensure that the "second contract" that has been killing teams, won't be as bad. After all, teams won't have to sign through his free agency season now, because…

4. Contract maximums will be five years and…

5. A player's UFA season would be pushed back to 28 years old, from 27. So there is no way for the second contract to take the player into unrestricted free agency. There needs to be a third contract. The player needs to be 28, or he needs to play eight years in the NHL. So the ELC is 2+5 (contract max)=7, which is less than eight.

6. This season, all players retain their full contract. There is no rollback. This is done in two ways. First of all, the salary cap will be allowed to be exceeded up to $70 million. Anything over their 50% share will be deferred payment (future years they will get the money owed).

7. Per Pierre Lebrun, year-to-year salaries can only go up or down by five percent.

8. Arbitration eligibility pushed back from fourth year to the fifth.

9. A 33% increase in revenue sharing from big-market to small-market clubs. Currently $150 million is being shared. This will increase to $200 in the new proposal.

*

The two sides will speak on the phone tonight to clarify a couple of areas (mainly revenue) and they will meet again Thursday - and I would expect a counter proposal of sorts. If the agreement is reached by October 25, the season can begin on November 2 and all 82 games will be played. The playoffs will start two weeks late and an extra game will be added for each team every five weeks.

That's not a huge workload thrown in there, but you have to think that backup goaltenders will see an added three or four games. If it means eight games are slotted into the schedule, you have to think that at least half of them would result in back-to-backs.

*

The big thing that I'm looking at are the NHLers who flocked to Europe quickly. Some of them have played upwards of 10 or 12 games. Professional games against other men, complete with plenty of hitting, training and practicing. So these guys are looking at a 94-game season, with 82 games a little more condensed than they are used to. Injuries are bound to increase, particularly among the guys who have played 10 or more games already. And compound that even further if the player is a Band-Aid Boy, such as Evgeni Malkin.

*

And then there are the players who have sustained injuries over there - if the season begins November 2, Jakub Voracek won't start. Neither will Corey Emmerton. Lots of intangibles to consider, and I'll update all I can on that in the Fantasy Guide.

*

Here is an article on Cam Barker, criticizing and questioning scouts on their rating of him as a top prospect as a teenager.

Why I think the stance is a wrong one: he was injured. Like, a hundred times. If I remember correctly, he missed much of a key development year (still a teenager) from mono, and then it was injury after injury after that. His skills stalled at the age of 18, or at least showed very little progress. And then by his early 20s he was taking steps backwards. This is a banged up body, combined with being a little more tentative - a little gun shy. I don't think the scouts were wrong - if he missed 10 games in his last eight years (at all levels, not just the NHL), then I'm sure he'd be a good player today. But he was drafted in 2004, played just 27 games in 2005, missed a dozen games the following year and that's about how things went after that, missing 10 or 15 games each year. Shoulder, ankle, groin, ankle, ankle (yes, ankle three times, plus three "lower body" injuries that could also be ankle-related).

I'm not defending the player. I don't think I've ever owned him in fantasy hockey. I'm just defending the scouts. Sometimes it's not a matter of the scouts "getting it wrong". Sometimes, it's just that the player is forced down the path to failure by injuries. And the same can be said about any fantasy owner and his or her evaluation of young players. Sometimes you don't get it wrong - things just went wrong that are out of your control.

*

Jeff Angus interviews Justin Goldman about Kari Lehtonen for Defending Big D.

*

Another player at risk of injury this year? Dmitri Kulikov. He's eating ice time like it's going out of style right now and has already played seven KHL games. Add that to the fact that he's already a Band-Aid Boy, and I would bet $50 right now that he won't play 70 games this season in the NHL.

*

Taylor Hall is still nursing a shoulder injury and will keep collecting a paycheck be out for - what's that? The lockout could be over soon? Oh. Yeah, so uh, Taylor Hall is cleared from his shoulder rehab (after surgery) and will report to OKC. Nicely timed, sir - well done!

*

Puck Daddy investigates the all-too-serious rumor that the NHL will announce expansion to Toronto and Quebec City after a CBA is settled. My thoughts? I've been saying this would happen all year. I think a team (Phoenix or Florida?) moves to Seattle, and the league will expand to Vaughan (Toronto) and Quebec City. So 32 teams and 20 playoff teams - and the Leafs finally get some competition, which would be fantastic for them (though they don’t know it yet).

*

Damien Brunner has 17 points in 10 games for his Swiss club so far, and his future teammate Henrik Zetterberg is expected to play on his line Friday. At this point, though, Zetterberg may only get in two games before he has to fly back for Detroit's shortened training camp!

(am I too optimistic?)

*

Vancouver prospect goaltender Eddie Lack just about made it through two full games without allowing a goal, to kick off his AHL season.

*

MORE things you won't hear during the NHL lockout (the bloopers weren't great, but the "more things" part was hilarious):

 


Write comment
Comments (15)add comment

Jason_Banks said:

Jason_Banks
... very agreed Kraftster...

People in general need to stop looking at contracts as to what a player does on the ice and the stats they generate (being fantasy people, thats all we do and look at)... Look at what a player generates for a team and how a contracts relates to the individual player... Most 'hockey fans' including people here are mainly NHL fans to be fair, no problem with that. These people will only spend THEIR $$$ on NHL hockey... and there there are billions of dollars worth of these people obviously when he hear revenue numbers year after year...

For the most part people have picked a favorite team (brand) and a player... The big $$$ generator is not the brand of the team is it the Idividual player... example...

Personally at this point, I'm a brand guy, there is little to gain from me... I pay $130 for leaf tickets in purple, buy a pizza slice and a pop at the game for $13 and once in a blue moon a general leaf hat at about $35... Leafs are only generating $160 per game off me spread amongst 23 players...

Me 15 years ago as a kid, I was a leafs fan, but my world revolved around Felix Potvin... now lets say 50% of fan today are like that, espacially women and childern... I walk into a Leaf game, theres $130 thats standard, its gonna still cost me my pizza and pop at $13... Now I walk into the store, (back when Potvin was a rockstar) I see his jersey, its $450... $130 for the jersey its printed on, $25 for the letters, $290 because it was his name... Revenue from my night at the Leafs in this case almost $600 and 50% of my revenue was because of an individual player... (to be exact ticket, conessions, basic revenue on jersey = $298 divided by the brand base offered (23 players)= $12.95/player... the individual I go to see Cost me $302.95... player precentage related to revenue 302.95 divided by 593 = 51% hockey related revenue atributed to the player

These are the basic #s the League looks at on a massive scale... that includes advertising revenue, TV income ect ect ect... with over 50% generated due to the rockstars used, not the brand they endorse... and none of this mentions what the player did on the ice... hockey statistics are just a teams justification in negociation... (that said, fans value and 'love' for a player are usually attributed to what they do on the ice)...

Just a little thinking/number for people when they ask why players even get 50% of $$$ generated by the NHL...
October 17, 2012
Votes: +0

Kraftster said:

Kraftster
... Well, with the details being released, everything that I have read confirms my suspicions yesterday that this proposal will be nothing more than a starting point (if that), and the real motivation behind it was an attempt to gain some positive PR for the owners while portraying the players as greedy. Fehr will be savvy enough to explain why it is not a whole lot more than that, but enough people will say "50/50 is fair, the players are greedy" that it'll be a win for the owners.
October 17, 2012
Votes: +2

Jason_Banks said:

Jason_Banks
... @ Chris - What the players may look at:

- eliminating the ghost math... What exactly does 'deferred payment of the contract if over the 50% market share' mean, entail, how is it calculated and paid out?... Players would likely be more open to reducing the market share over the length of the agreement annually... 57-56-54-53-52-50 something along those lines... also grandfathering the contract rules with no impact on exsisting ones...

- they may also pick a battle, arrbitration years or UFA status... one they will allow to lengthen, the other must stay.

- revenue sharing, isn't really their issue, thats the owners pushing $$$ around... only reason it comes up is because Toronto subsidizes Columbus's revenue with a helping hand to pay for Rick Nash (or atleast use to), Basically Toronto makes 20% more revenue over the average NHL team and Columbus makes 20% less, it evens out the averages better so Columbus can deal with the current 57% going to players easier...

- Contracts only being 5 years... players would of course like guarenteed contracts for 10+ years... wouldn't you like to know your getting paid for the next 10 years steadily... job security... look for that number to likey grow 7 years... figure Free Agency at 28, + long term contract at age of 28 = age 35, now subsequent contracts fall under the +35 rules currently thust making them guarenteed... personally if I'm an owner I'd attack a better rule, no contact can extend beyond the age of 35 and evey contract after is 1 year...

other than that, I don't see many issues that they have released publicly that are out in left feild...

Now there are tens of thousands of language or other $$$ issues underlining these negociations... thats why they had meetings that did not discuss revenue... there were small battles discussing player care during traing camp (could have been and increase in compensation for meals/transportation/hotels), rules for sending down a player to the minors and costs associated, berevement, player allowance while in minors, insurance costs/coverage ect... most people don't know about many of these things unless they have read a CBA before or know very personally a player/staff involved...

Being a union man myself that is currrently gearing up for our own round of negotiations in the spring, its sometimes not the big issues that hold things up, its the small language or details... So far all we know is Owners want to reduce player impact on thier profits, and players want to keep thier contracts signed, honored and not too watered down....
October 17, 2012
Votes: +1

Dakkster said:

Dakkster
... I can't remembered who tweeted it last night, but I saw someone claim that no money on current contracts would be lost in the long run. It would be crazy if they let that turn into another shit storm.
October 17, 2012
Votes: +0

Capn Jimmy said:

Capn Jimmy
... It depends on how the deferred money works, and I have not heard this explained yet. If the deferred money has to fit under the cap in a future year, then it will depress future salaries. If it does not need to be under the cap, then it will not (at least not greatly) affect future salaries.
October 17, 2012
Votes: +0

Dakkster said:

Dakkster
... Slacker George: Nope, that won't happen. The contracts will be honored to the penny. This will not be another generation's problem. We're talking that any money deferred this year will be paid back some time in the duration of the CBA they agree on, IF they use this approach.
October 17, 2012
Votes: +0

hawkdog said:

hawkdog
great ramblings
You mention all the negative fantasy impacts of the season starting Nov 2. Do you see any positive impacts?

LA gets an extra month to get over their hang over? Can they repeat?
Concussion victims like Horton, Sedin, Price?, get a bit more time to adjust to bright light
Hall gets more time to restock his first aid kit
Prospect example - a like Schroeder might get a chance with Kesler out

October 17, 2012
Votes: +1

newfcollins said:

newfcollins
... Two things leap out at me.

1) The three contract thing before becoming a free agent wouldn't worry me if I were a player You don't need to sign a max deal, it's just an option. You can sign three deals of two years, three years, three years, and still become a free agent early. Or go two years, five years, one year. There's a few combinations that would work out.

2) This was a brilliant move by Bettman and the owners. If the players don't accept a contract like this (one that most are calling fair and are getting people excited for a season), then all the bad negativity and hate goes to the players. The owners could say they tried and the players come out as the bad guys.
October 17, 2012
Votes: +0

slacker_george said:

slacker_george
Interesting that players would go for #6 "6. This season, all players retain their full contract. There is no rollback. This is done in two ways. First of all, the salary cap will be allowed to be exceeded up to $70 million. Anything over their 50% share will be deferred payment (future years they will get the money owed)."

Salaries will likley be depressed in that deferred year(s), but that's another generation's problem. Human nature is wonderful.
October 17, 2012
Votes: +0

Chris said:

Dr.Smurf
CBA offer This looks like the kind of deal that was more or less predicted before the CBA negotiations began. Could someone enlighten me as to what the NHLPA might try to alter/ barter for (or against)? Just wondering what's left for them to negotiate over. Seems like a reasonable deal to me, but maybe that's just the hockey-deprived fan in me talking!
October 17, 2012
Votes: +0

DuklaNation said:

DuklaNation
... Pretty good offer by the owners. Addressed most of my concerns especially contract terms. I only dislike the 6yr deal, but maybe its OK since they are still trying for a decent formula.
October 17, 2012
Votes: +1

Mr_Sausage said:

Mr_Sausage
CBA Interesting offer. The media seem to be raising hope of a deal soon. Obviously I don't know specifics but there has too be something in there for the players to even consider this. If this offer is just take, take, take as what the main points seem to be I still don't see them accepting. The owners are kind of saying "Okay instead of taking a whole bunch like our original offer, we'll still take a whole bunch, but not as much as we would of liked."

October 17, 2012
Votes: +0

Rad64 said:

Rad64
Affect of playing overseas 1. The players who have already played 10-12 games should come back in game shape and perform at a higher pace for the first few weeks than the players remaining in NA. You might want to trade a few after a hot start.
2. If the season starts November 2nd, returning players will have missed all the pre-season games and the bulk of a regular training camp....so the impact of playing oversees or in the AHL may not be too bad for our BAB's.
3. I believe that we may also see more players take "maintenance days" with a condensed schedule, so the impact may not be limited to backup goalies.
4. Will the All-Star break be cancelled???? If so, this takes another chunk of rest away from players that could lead to more injuries in the second half.
October 16, 2012
Votes: +2

InnocentBystander said:

27Blue
... in bettman's PC, he said there would be a make-up game every 5 weeks -not three....
October 16, 2012
Votes: +0

Big Ev said:

Big Ev
... What, no love for Binghamton-Rochester AHL game? Boo!
October 16, 2012
Votes: +0
You must be logged in to post a comment. Please register if you do not have an account yet.

busy